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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: The end is not yet nigh

  • Edition July 10, 2018

    Despite tightening financial conditions in the US and a possible worsening of trade tensions, a cyclical downturn is not imminent. The heady days of simultaneous expansion are, however, now well and truly over. Growth is still running high in the US and remains vigorous in the Eurozone after a temporary loss of impetus, though it looks set to recede in the emerging economies – the first region to suffer from the killer combination of a rising dollar, rising US interest rates, and growing fears of protectionism.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

  • Edition April 4, 2018

    The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Cruel Imagination...

  • Edition December 21, 2017

    Even as we anxiously scan the horizon for harbingers of a downturn, the cycle continues to amaze us with its quiet power and its general propagation. To identify some of the essential ingredients of the current cycle, we should look to the great financial crisis of 2008. The depth of the crisis explains why it is taking so long for the scars to heal and why the real imbalances have yet to manifest themselves, especially in the shape of inflation. The upward cycle is therefore likely to continue for a few quarters yet. Monetary policies, which are accommodative despite actual or planned tightening, are underpinning growth. The resorption of public imbalances is made easier by low interest rates, and we see no reason why they should rise suddenly.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Inflation, the long absence

  • Edition October 4, 2017

    We had despaired of ever seeing investment pick up and jobs being created, and then of seeing wages gain traction. These classic ingredients of a burgeoning cycle are now in place, even if to differing degrees from one economy to another. On the other hand, there is no sign of the sort of inflation one would expect to see at this point in the cycle. What should we be making of such a long absence? That it reflects structural changes in price formation and also that it makes the oversight of central banks and inflation-targeting far more complex.

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