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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Inflation, the long absence

  • Edition October 4, 2017

    We had despaired of ever seeing investment pick up and jobs being created, and then of seeing wages gain traction. These classic ingredients of a burgeoning cycle are now in place, even if to differing degrees from one economy to another. On the other hand, there is no sign of the sort of inflation one would expect to see at this point in the cycle. What should we be making of such a long absence? That it reflects structural changes in price formation and also that it makes the oversight of central banks and inflation-targeting far more complex.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Pleasant surprises of a slow-burn cycle

  • Edition July 3, 2017

    The slow-burn cycle is currently delivering some pleasant surprises. There are no signs on the horizon of the excesses typical of a premature and often sudden end to a cycle. In particular, we are desperately seeking inflation. As a result, a ‘harmonious' economic scenario where monetary support mechanisms will only gradually be withdrawn is developing – this is a reasonably optimistic scenario where financial conditions are not brutally tightening. It would be easy to draw up a dark economic scenario, where every latent risk raises its head, and predict the end of the world as we know it. But we will refrain from that and posit a reasonably optimistic scenario.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Aligning timescales

  • Edition April 3, 2017

    Politics is a long game, the financial markets an extremely short one. The economy could be said to be somewhere in between. It is necessary to reconcile the durations of those three games to compose an economic and financial scenario that does not bring too much dissonance. In such a scenario the cycle will prosper, and even strengthen, provided that political risks do not materialise due to a draconian tightening of financial conditions.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: "Hope is a risk you have to take"

  • Edition December 20, 2016

    Clearly, the geopolitical, political and economic risks facing the world are many and multifarious. And it's no easy matter to isolate those that seem most apparent to us. In this respect, a sudden tightening of financial conditions does not yet seem an imminent danger. While 2017 is not looking as if it will be the year of living dangerously, 2018 could well be more fraught.

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