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Europe

Eurozone – Outlook 2017-2018: Reconfiguration of expectations

  • Edition November 10, 2017

    Eurozone growth is strengthening and was moving along at an annual rate of over 2%. The Eurozone thus looks set for another year of above-potential growth driven by a favourable global environment. These positive surprises as regards growth could encourage economic agents to upgrade their prospects, having in recent years been used to their successive downward revisions. However, the euro's recent appreciation has brought some shadow on this perfectly justified optimism-tinted scenario.

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Germany – 2017-2018 Scenario: Outlook in Q3-2017

  • Edition October 2017

    Domestic demand remains the main factor supporting German activity in 2017 and 2018. The acceleration of consumption and investment this year is being confirmed over the quarters, while the export surge supported by world trade is counterbalanced by the rise of imports that are more dynamic. Our scenario expects a solid GDP growth of + 2.2% in 2017 and + 2.1% in 2018.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Inflation, the long absence

  • Edition October 4, 2017

    We had despaired of ever seeing investment pick up and jobs being created, and then of seeing wages gain traction. These classic ingredients of a burgeoning cycle are now in place, even if to differing degrees from one economy to another. On the other hand, there is no sign of the sort of inflation one would expect to see at this point in the cycle. What should we be making of such a long absence? That it reflects structural changes in price formation and also that it makes the oversight of central banks and inflation-targeting far more complex.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

Spain – Madrid vs Barcelona: 'més que un clasico'

  • Edition 29 September 2017

    The continuing refusal of Madrid to open negotiations for further Catalan fiscal autonomy has pushed the Catalan nationalist conservatives towards secessionism, leading to the formation of a cross-party majority for independence in the Catalan Parlament. If a UDI is claimed, following a positive result in the referendum, its actual implementation seems unlikely, given the lack of strong popular support and the weaknesses of the secessionist majority.

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Germany – Political issues – Merkel 4.0: What political changes can we expect?

  • Edition 21 September 2017

    Angela Merkel is likely to remain the German Chancellor after these federal legislative elections. The arbitration that she will have to carry out between the two currently possible coalitions will be decisive for the economic policy of the country. In order to understand their differences, we propose here to analyze the electoral proposals put forward by the political parties competing on basis of four key themes in the electoral campaign.

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Germany – Political issues: Assessing the Merkel years

  • Edition September 20, 2017

    Germany faced depth change during the mandates of Angela Merkel. It overcame the difficulties raised by reunification, came through two major economic crises, and at the same time it was able to become the engine of European growth. This success is not only the result of the actions carried out by the Chancellor but also a result of the changes previously initiated. Its economic model is still attractive in some respects but will have to evolve to face of the challenges of tomorrow.

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