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Europe

UK: Heightened political uncertainty versus hopes for a softer Brexit

  • Edition June 16, 2017

    The 8 June snap election was a shock for Theresa May as it resulted in a loss of the Conservative party's absolute majority in Parliament. Even though she decided not to resign, she is vulnerable to challenges within her party at any time. This hung parliament heralds a period of political instability and significant uncertainty over the sequence of future events. It also opens up a wide range of outcomes for Brexit. Meanwhile, a minority government is unlikely to last its full five-year term, increasing the risk of another snap election.

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Dove profusion

  • Edition June 8, 2017

    There are too many questions, there is no 'one solution', there is no core inflation, there is growth celebration. And an ECB that has provided a profusion of dovish elements to make markets feel, to make markets know that, despite the fact that the wording of the forward guidance changed, the ECB will remain on the path of an accommodative stance for a prolonged period of time.

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United-Kingdom - The approaching snap election and what it means for Brexit

  • Edition June 2, 2017

    On 8 June the British people will go back to the polls for a snap general election. Our base-case scenario is that the Conservatives will extend their parliamentary majority, as suggested by the majority of polls. However, the slump in the Conservatives' lead in voting intentions over the past two weeks suggests that the election's result should not be taken as a foregone conclusion.

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United-Kingdom - Consumers' resilience under scrutiny

  • Edition April 10, 2017

    The resilience of the British economy in the post-referendum period has taken many by surprise. Some made rapid conclusions that ‘Brexit has had no effect on the economy'. To state this, however, is to voluntarily omit that Brexit has not yet occurred. We are still at the very beginning of the negotiation process, which started officially on 29 March. The main effects of the referendum result so far have been through foreign exchange.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Aligning timescales

  • Edition April 3, 2017

    Politics is a long game, the financial markets an extremely short one. The economy could be said to be somewhere in between. It is necessary to reconcile the durations of those three games to compose an economic and financial scenario that does not bring too much dissonance. In such a scenario the cycle will prosper, and even strengthen, provided that political risks do not materialise due to a draconian tightening of financial conditions.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

ECB - Tainted dove

  • Edition 10 March, 2017

    Sometimes the ECB feels it has to run away, it has to get away from the dovish stance it drove into the heart of the Eurozone. The dovish stance seems to be close to an end. It is losing its usefulness… The constructive ambiguity widely used by the ECB at today's press conference confirms our view that the ECB is almost at the peak of its accommodative stance: from now on, it will slow the expectations on monetary policy before actually – very gradually – removing the monetary support.

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