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Europe

UK – Bank of England: On course for slow tightening despite Brexit uncertainty

  • Edition August 6, 2018

    The BoE increased its key policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% at the August monetary policy meeting. Well flagged prior to the meeting, the move was largely anticipated by the markets. The vote was unanimous (9-0), contrary to expectations for a split vote. However, it is difficult to extract a clearly hawkish sign for future meetings. We continue to anticipate one rate hike per year, with the next rate hike expected in May 2019.

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Germany – 2018-2019 Scenario: Q2 2018 Outlook

  • Edition July 24, 2018

    Following a first quarter characterized by a marked slowdown in activity, German growth is expected to accelerate slightly in the second quarter. Domestic demand will remain the main driver of growth thanks to sustained private consumption and still positive investment momentum. External demand is faded by the rise of US protectionist barriers that are likely to hit more severely German exporters.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: The end is not yet nigh

  • Edition July 10, 2018

    Despite tightening financial conditions in the US and a possible worsening of trade tensions, a cyclical downturn is not imminent. The heady days of simultaneous expansion are, however, now well and truly over. Growth is still running high in the US and remains vigorous in the Eurozone after a temporary loss of impetus, though it looks set to recede in the emerging economies – the first region to suffer from the killer combination of a rising dollar, rising US interest rates, and growing fears of protectionism.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts

Europe – Foreign trade – Trade war: the price to be paid

  • Edition May 2018

    The announcements concerning the Trump administration's trade policy present a serious challenge for the European Union. If it fails to bring the US back to the WTO's negotiating table, the European Union could either enter into bilateral negotiations, or lodge a complaint with the WTO in order to obtain compensation. Both options carry a cost, be it having to renounce multilateralism, or face an escalation of the trade conflict with the US.

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United-Kingdom 2018-19 Scenario: outlook as at Q1 18

  • Edition April 25, 2018

    Negotiations on Brexit have moved forward since a preliminary divorce agreement was signed last December. The United Kingdom has ended up softening its red lines somewhat, without this leading to a major political crisis. The European Union has shown some flexibility while remaining firm on its fundamental principles. An agreement on a transition period was concluded in March. However, the hardest part is yet to come, with the Irish border issue to be settled by June.

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Germany – 2018-2019 scenario: Outlook at Q1-2018

  • Edition april 20, 2018

    After a strong growth in 2017, we expect activity growth to be also robust in 2018 and a slight slowdown in 2019. The unemployment rate has not yet reached its bottom and underemployed part-time workers represent a potential source of additional workforce to meet the increased demand. Domestic demand remains the main pillar of growth, while external demand may suffer from a more protectionist environment than in the past.

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