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Europe

Europe – Foreign trade – Trade war: the price to be paid

  • Edition May 2018

    The announcements concerning the Trump administration's trade policy present a serious challenge for the European Union. If it fails to bring the US back to the WTO's negotiating table, the European Union could either enter into bilateral negotiations, or lodge a complaint with the WTO in order to obtain compensation. Both options carry a cost, be it having to renounce multilateralism, or face an escalation of the trade conflict with the US.

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United-Kingdom 2018-19 Scenario: outlook as at Q1 18

  • Edition April 25, 2018

    Negotiations on Brexit have moved forward since a preliminary divorce agreement was signed last December. The United Kingdom has ended up softening its red lines somewhat, without this leading to a major political crisis. The European Union has shown some flexibility while remaining firm on its fundamental principles. An agreement on a transition period was concluded in March. However, the hardest part is yet to come, with the Irish border issue to be settled by June.

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Germany – 2018-2019 scenario: Outlook at Q1-2018

  • Edition april 20, 2018

    After a strong growth in 2017, we expect activity growth to be also robust in 2018 and a slight slowdown in 2019. The unemployment rate has not yet reached its bottom and underemployed part-time workers represent a potential source of additional workforce to meet the increased demand. Domestic demand remains the main pillar of growth, while external demand may suffer from a more protectionist environment than in the past.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

  • Edition April 4, 2018

    The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts

United Kingdom – Brexit: considerable progress, but the hardest part is yet to come

  • Edition 28 March 2018

    Considerable progress was made in the Brexit negotiations over the last few weeks. The main advances have been the translation into legal terms of the political commitments made when the preliminary divorce agreement was reached on 8 December 2017. These concern the divorce bill and the rights of UK and EU nationals. The negotiators have also agreed on a transition period until the end of 2020.

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United Kingdom – Bank of England to step up its pace of tightening slightly

  • Edition February 14, 2018

    The BoE unanimously decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged at its February meeting, but surprised markets with a hawkish stance. The BoE indicated that "monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period" than anticipated in November. We now expect the next rate hike in May, while we maintain our forecast for one additional rate increase in November this year and one in August next year.

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