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Italy
World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: prevention better than cure
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Edition April 15, 2019
The strong, synchronised cycle of global growth has ended. Alongside hopes that the US-China trade negotiations will result in a deal and that Chinese growth picks up – but not deceiving ourselves about China's ability to drive the world economy – we are seeing signs of flagging, although not a collapse. The major economies will mainly rely on the strength of their domestic demand to achieve a soft landing that is close to potential growth rates. And, preferring prevention rather than cure, cautious central banks have opted for more accommodative monetary policy than expected.
Italy – Economic environment: Macroeconomic and banking review
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Edition 9 April 2019
Following a 0.1% downturn in Q3 2018 and Q4 2018, Italy is officially in a technical recession, a term signifying a decrease in GDP over two consecutive quarters. GDP growth in 2018 thus came out at 0.9%, down sharply on the 1.7% reported in 2017. Our central scenario is based on a recovery in activity, especially in industry, starting in Q2 2019, and on a renewed positive contribution from domestic demand. However, the growth overhang in 2019 from Q4 2018 is negative (-0.1%) and will limit GDP growth to an annual average of 0.1% in 2019.
Italy – Economic environment : Under pressure
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Edition 26 October 2018
The impact of external risk factors materialised in the first half, leading to a more emphatic slowdown in the Italian economy than other European countries. Activity increased by 0.2% in the second quarter, hampered by the decline in foreign demand, albeit less pronounced than at the start of the year. Internal demand contributed positively to growth thanks to private investment, which should remain strong through end-2018.
Italy – Public Finance : 2019 budget, a European challenge
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Edition 24 October 2018
All eyes are glued to the 2019 draft budget. The power struggle between the Economy Ministry and the leaders of the two governing parties was won by the latter. Finally, the deficit will definitely rise to 2.4% in 2019, but will fall to 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. We will, therefore see a fiscal expansion next year, but the fiscal stance will subsequently become neutral once more. The long march towards a cancellation of the structural deficit will then resume from 2022.
Italy - Scenario 2018-2019: A stabilized growth
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Edition August 1, 2018
In 2017, Italian growth increased by 1.5%. Following the political events the country has been facing since March, we have revised our forecasts for the years 2018 and 2019 to 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.
Italy – Economic climate: Economy still resilient in Q1 2018
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Edition 9 July 2018
Italian economic growth moderately slowed in Q1 2018, against a backdrop of a marked deceleration in the European cycle. That backdrop had an adverse effect on the contribution from foreign demand, but domestic demand was still robust. For banks, both asset quality and profitability improvement have continued to improve, but the new government has disrupted this more upbeat context.
Italy – Political risk contained by growth and improvement in the banking sector
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Edition 27 March 2018
The new government has scant leeway for its first main task, the 2019 budget, owing to the multi-year fiscal trajectory negotiated with the European Commission that is ill-compatible with electoral promises. It is in this area, as well as in the continuation of the structural reforms introduced by the outgoing government, that the reliability of the new coalition will be judged by European partners, rating agencies and investors.
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