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Italy – Political Issues – Renzi's comeback: to do what, when, and with whom?

  • Edition 16 May 2017

    Matteo Renzi has returned to frontline politics following his overwhelming victory in the Democratic Party (PD) primary. The relatively high turnout gave him sufficient legitimacy to go back on the campaign train for the upcoming partial local elections in June, and above all for the spring 2018 general election. The temptation to quickly spend his political capital by provoking the fall of the Gentiloni government and calling for an early general election in September 2017 is great.


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Italy vs Spain: do fundamentals justify trade?

  • Edition February 3, 2017

    Markets and institutional organisations favour a better recent dynamic in Spain, while Italy stands out as benefitting from a better status on various economic dimensions. Spain has started earlier implementing a series of post-crisis structural reforms, while Italy was standing on a better reform track in the 1990s. The latest impressive round of Italian structural reforms is too young to unveil their impact and has not been fully taken into account by observers.


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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016

  • Edition June 30, 2015

    We have had to revise down our cautiously optimistic March outlook slightly, for two reasons. First, US growth will be lower than expected in 2015 due to a disappointing first quarter. Secondly, the slowdown in the emerging countries will be a little more marked than originally forecast, with recessions in particular. Despite the improved outlook for growth in the Eurozone, the world economy as a whole is ultimately set to grow more slowly in 2015 than in 2014, before a rebound in 2016.


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Trying to save time is a waste of time

  • Edition July, 2013
    Playing for time while waiting for an improvement in the European economic situation risks miring the Italian economy in recession. Seeking to capitalise on the stability of the financial markets and fiscal consolidation in hopes of achieving some slight room for manoeuvre will not be enough, either. What is really needed are speedy measures to improve the financial situation of Italy's SMEs, even if it takes means other than traditional bank credit to do so.


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Italy: A lost decade?

  • Edition May, 2013
    Scared of backsliding, Italy is moving ahead under a watchful eye. The "national responsibility" government is pursuing a programme of political reform that is less ambitious than that sought by the opposition. However, economic governance will be consistent with the roadmap set out by the Monti government over the medium term. This pragmatic approach is reassuring the markets.


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