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Italy

Italy – Economic environment : Under pressure

  • Edition 26 October 2018

    The impact of external risk factors materialised in the first half, leading to a more emphatic slowdown in the Italian economy than other European countries. Activity increased by 0.2% in the second quarter, hampered by the decline in foreign demand, albeit less pronounced than at the start of the year. Internal demand contributed positively to growth thanks to private investment, which should remain strong through end-2018.

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Italy – Public Finance : 2019 budget, a European challenge

  • Edition 24 October 2018

    All eyes are glued to the 2019 draft budget. The power struggle between the Economy Ministry and the leaders of the two governing parties was won by the latter. Finally, the deficit will definitely rise to 2.4% in 2019, but will fall to 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. We will, therefore see a fiscal expansion next year, but the fiscal stance will subsequently become neutral once more. The long march towards a cancellation of the structural deficit will then resume from 2022.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts

  • Edition October 3, 2018

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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Italy - Scenario 2018-2019: A stabilized growth

  • Edition August 1, 2018

    In 2017, Italian growth increased by 1.5%. Following the political events the country has been facing since March, we have revised our forecasts for the years 2018 and 2019 to 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.

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Italy – Economic climate: Economy still resilient in Q1 2018

  • Edition 9 July 2018

    Italian economic growth moderately slowed in Q1 2018, against a backdrop of a marked deceleration in the European cycle. That backdrop had an adverse effect on the contribution from foreign demand, but domestic demand was still robust. For banks, both asset quality and profitability improvement have continued to improve, but the new government has disrupted this more upbeat context.

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Italy – Political risk contained by growth and improvement in the banking sector

  • Edition 27 March 2018

    The new government has scant leeway for its first main task, the 2019 budget, owing to the multi-year fiscal trajectory negotiated with the European Commission that is ill-compatible with electoral promises. It is in this area, as well as in the continuation of the structural reforms introduced by the outgoing government, that the reliability of the new coalition will be judged by European partners, rating agencies and investors.

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Italy – Conjoncture: Please, do not hinder the virtuous circle

  • Edition January 18, 2018

    The consolidation of productive investment and a swifter decrease in unemployment feed into a more autonomous growth. This benefits the banking sector by sustaining restructuring efforts, more than ever dominated by a race to reduce NPLs. On the political front, the scenario of a post-election coalition between Forza Italia, the Centre and M. Renzi's democratic Party is loosing strength due to the latter's weakening.

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