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France

World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: prevention better than cure

  • Edition April 15, 2019

    The strong, synchronised cycle of global growth has ended. Alongside hopes that the US-China trade negotiations will result in a deal and that Chinese growth picks up – but not deceiving ourselves about China's ability to drive the world economy – we are seeing signs of flagging, although not a collapse. The major economies will mainly rely on the strength of their domestic demand to achieve a soft landing that is close to potential growth rates. And, preferring prevention rather than cure, cautious central banks have opted for more accommodative monetary policy than expected.

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France – Real estate: recent developments and outlook for 2019

  • Edition February 15, 2019

    The housing market should remain upbeat in 2019. Demand should be sustained by low lending rates and structural support factors. The market should see neither a bubble nor a sudden collapse. Yet, after an outstanding year in 2017, the market should continue to slow down gently. Transactions should thus see a slight decline in 2019 (-4% over 12 months in pre-owned, -6% in new-build) and the rate of increase in prices should slow towards 2%.

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France – 2019-2020 Scenario: more dynamic purchasing power but growth slowdown confirmed

  • Edition January 22, 2019

    In France, growth has slowed significantly compared with the previous year. Following the publication of the Q3 GDP figure, the growth carryover came out at 1.5% in 2018, compared with 2.3% in 2017. Q1 was effectively disappointing, with growth then firming up slightly in Q3. That said, it is likely to return to a more modest rate at the end of the year, largely due to the effects of the Gilets Jaunes crisis. Going forward, we are forecasting a likely similar annual growth rate in 2019, of 1.6%.

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France – What are the economic consequences of the Gilets Jaunes crisis?

  • Edition 20 December 2018

    The "Gilets Jaunes" crisis affects growth in Q4 2018, revised to +0,2% qoq from +0,4%. In the face of this crisis and the demands of the "Gilets Jaunes", two sets of social support measures were announced. These two sets of measures, which represent around €10 billion, will result in a significant additional gain in purchasing power of 0.7% in 2019. Consumption will be more sustained, and GDP will increase more strongly than initially forecast, +1,8% yoy in 2019. However, the deficit-to-GDP ratio is revised upwards significantly for 2019, from 2.8% to 3.3%.

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France – Pensions: The state of play and future reform issues

  • Edition December 3, 2018

    The reforms in the 2000s warded off the risk of a severe deterioration in the pension systems deficit. The financial balance, which is currently close to equilibrium, is likely to remain so in the short term. It is felt to be positive in favourable scenarios, but would again go into deficit, by 1-1.5% of GDP a year from 2030 in the more cautious scenarios. A new pensions reform has been announced whose prime objective is to roll out a universal regime that would be clearer and fairer. It would still be a pay-as-you-go system but would shift completely to a points-based regime.

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France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition October 31, 2018

    After an exceptional year in 2017, the housing market has again been sustained in 2018, but is not showing any signs of a bubble or overheating. On the contrary, signs of cooling have been growing, with a slight dip in sales of pre-owned homes, a more marked drop in sales of new-build homes, and a slowdown in prices and mortgage lending. In 2019, the market will continue to slow very gently, with a slight fall-off in transactions and a slowdown of housing prices.

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France: 2018-2019 Scenario

  • Edition 24 October 2018

    The first half was marked by a certain desynchronisation among the main economic regions. Growth remained upbeat in the United States and fairly stable in the eurozone, while some emerging countries experienced specific difficulties. In France, the growth outlook has been revised down slightly. After 2.3% growth in 2017, we are forecasting further fairly robust growth in 2018 and 2019 at 1.6% a year.

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