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France

France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition 14 May 2018

    The housing market saw a record year in 2017. We do not feel it likely that the market will overheat in 2018-2019. On the contrary, a slight dip is forecast. For one thing, the gradual refocusing of the Pinel buy-to-let scheme and the PTZ interest free housing loan on areas of housing shortages is forecast to cut new-build sales by 9% in 2018. Secondly, the gradual increase of lending rates combined with rising home prices will nibble away at households' ability to buy and make buyers more hesitant and wait-and-see.

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France – 2018-2019 scenario: Robust growth in 2018-2019 despite increased recruitment difficulties

  • Edition May 2, 2018

    Q1 GDP showed slowing growth. This was expected and was justified by one-off factors; this does not suggest, however, that the French economy has begun a cyclical downswing. Over 2018 as a whole, the pace of growth is forecast to remain robust. France is experiencing increased recruitment difficulties that reveal a level of activity that it now nearing its potential, and a problem of labour suitability.

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France – Stability Programme 2018 : Public deficit narrowing faster than expected

  • Edition April 24, 2018

    In mid-April, the French government presented its "Stability Programme" for 2018-2022. The document describes its public finance strategy over that period. The public deficit is narrowing more rapidly than expected. Reduced to 2.6% of GDP in 2017, it is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2018. Following a slight increase in 2019, to 2.4%, due to switching the CICE to a reduction in employer social contributions, it is expected to continue shrinking, with a small surplus forecast for 2022. The public debt ratio is expected to gradually fall.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

  • Edition April 4, 2018

    The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts

France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition February 2, 2018

    The housing market saw a record year in 2017. The market is fairly unlikely to surge in 2018-2019. On the contrary, a slight dip in the market is forecast for two reasons. First, the refocusing of new-build support measures on areas where supply is tight. Second, an erosion in borrowers' ability to buy, with the slight increase in mortgage lending rates and a marked increase in the price of homes.

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France – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

  • Edition January 17, 2018

    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, French growth was close to 1%. Growth accelerated sharply in 2017 and is expected to come out at 1.9%. We expect growth to continue at a robust pace in 2018 and 2019, at 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, but without accelerating on 2017.

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