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France

World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

  • Edition April 4, 2018

    The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts

France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition February 2, 2018

    The housing market saw a record year in 2017. The market is fairly unlikely to surge in 2018-2019. On the contrary, a slight dip in the market is forecast for two reasons. First, the refocusing of new-build support measures on areas where supply is tight. Second, an erosion in borrowers' ability to buy, with the slight increase in mortgage lending rates and a marked increase in the price of homes.

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France – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

  • Edition January 17, 2018

    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, French growth was close to 1%. Growth accelerated sharply in 2017 and is expected to come out at 1.9%. We expect growth to continue at a robust pace in 2018 and 2019, at 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, but without accelerating on 2017.

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France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018

  • Edition November 7, 2017

    The housing market grew at a sustained rate in 2017. The market is likely to see a slight slowdown in 2018-2019, however. First off, the new Housing Plan, unveiled in late September, is favourable over time via a supply-side shock, plus a four-year extension to the Pinel scheme and the PTZ interest-free loan. Second, the relative acceleration in prices and the continued slow increase in lending rates will eat into households' ability to purchase.

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France – 2017-2018 Scenario: The economic improvement confirmed

  • Edition 24 October 2017

    In 2016, for the third consecutive year, French growth came in at around 1% (1.1% in 2016). In 2017 and 2018, we are expecting to see an acceleration, with real GDP growth of respectively 1.7% and 1.6%. Tangible signs of an economic improvement have been perceptible for several months. The domestic drivers of recovery are more dynamic than we initially forecast. A self-sustaining growth cycle seems to be settling in.

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France – Labour market reform: Towards greater flexibility

  • Edition October 16, 2017

    The long-term trend in the French labour market is a rising unemployment rate and the development of "mass unemployment". Despite going into reverse in the second half of 2015, the unemployment rate remains high. In view of this, the provisions in the reform of the French labour code are designed to make the labour market more flexible while guaranteeing workers some protection.

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