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France

France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018

  • Edition November 7, 2017

    The housing market grew at a sustained rate in 2017. The market is likely to see a slight slowdown in 2018-2019, however. First off, the new Housing Plan, unveiled in late September, is favourable over time via a supply-side shock, plus a four-year extension to the Pinel scheme and the PTZ interest-free loan. Second, the relative acceleration in prices and the continued slow increase in lending rates will eat into households' ability to purchase.

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France – 2017-2018 Scenario: The economic improvement confirmed

  • Edition 24 October 2017

    In 2016, for the third consecutive year, French growth came in at around 1% (1.1% in 2016). In 2017 and 2018, we are expecting to see an acceleration, with real GDP growth of respectively 1.7% and 1.6%. Tangible signs of an economic improvement have been perceptible for several months. The domestic drivers of recovery are more dynamic than we initially forecast. A self-sustaining growth cycle seems to be settling in.

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France – Labour market reform: Towards greater flexibility

  • Edition October 16, 2017

    The long-term trend in the French labour market is a rising unemployment rate and the development of "mass unemployment". Despite going into reverse in the second half of 2015, the unemployment rate remains high. In view of this, the provisions in the reform of the French labour code are designed to make the labour market more flexible while guaranteeing workers some protection.

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France - Draft Budget Law for 2018: Public deficit reduced to 2.6% of GDP

  • Edition October 5, 2017

    The public deficit would reach 2.6% of GDP in 2018 (after 2.9% in 2017). The public debt ratio is expected to stabilise at 96.8% of GDP. The support measures include €10bn (net) of tax cuts and the first component of the major public investment plan. They are part of a supply-side policy and aim at a sustainable recovery of investment and employment. Significant savings on expenditures (€15bn) enable both the funding of these measures and the reducing of the deficits.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

France – Economy: A lasting improvement?

  • Edition September 12, 2017

    Tangible signs of improvement in the economy have been perceptible for a number of weeks (GDP growth, business climate, labour market). As a result, we have revised our growth forecast upward for 2017 in view of the more dynamic than initially forecast trend and one-off catch-up phenomena. In 2018, on the other hand, growth seems unlikely to accelerate. We are forecasting growth of 1.7% in 2017 and of 1.6% in 2018.

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France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2017-2018

  • Edition July 26, 2017

    The housing market was very active in 2016 and in the first half of 2017. The recovery is mainly linked to two factors: extremely low mortgage lending rates, which are now starting to edge up, boosting sales through a windfall effect; and the new-build stimulus plan with the Pinel scheme and the strengthening of the PTZ interest-free loan. Is this strength likely to persist, at a time when lending rates are timidly embarking on an uptrend? Two main scenarios seem possible, in our view.

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