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France

France – Labour market reform: Towards greater flexibility

  • Edition October 16, 2017

    The long-term trend in the French labour market is a rising unemployment rate and the development of "mass unemployment". Despite going into reverse in the second half of 2015, the unemployment rate remains high. In view of this, the provisions in the reform of the French labour code are designed to make the labour market more flexible while guaranteeing workers some protection.

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France - Draft Budget Law for 2018: Public deficit reduced to 2.6% of GDP

  • Edition October 5, 2017

    The public deficit would reach 2.6% of GDP in 2018 (after 2.9% in 2017). The public debt ratio is expected to stabilise at 96.8% of GDP. The support measures include €10bn (net) of tax cuts and the first component of the major public investment plan. They are part of a supply-side policy and aim at a sustainable recovery of investment and employment. Significant savings on expenditures (€15bn) enable both the funding of these measures and the reducing of the deficits.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

France – Economy: A lasting improvement?

  • Edition September 12, 2017

    Tangible signs of improvement in the economy have been perceptible for a number of weeks (GDP growth, business climate, labour market). As a result, we have revised our growth forecast upward for 2017 in view of the more dynamic than initially forecast trend and one-off catch-up phenomena. In 2018, on the other hand, growth seems unlikely to accelerate. We are forecasting growth of 1.7% in 2017 and of 1.6% in 2018.

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France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2017-2018

  • Edition July 26, 2017

    The housing market was very active in 2016 and in the first half of 2017. The recovery is mainly linked to two factors: extremely low mortgage lending rates, which are now starting to edge up, boosting sales through a windfall effect; and the new-build stimulus plan with the Pinel scheme and the strengthening of the PTZ interest-free loan. Is this strength likely to persist, at a time when lending rates are timidly embarking on an uptrend? Two main scenarios seem possible, in our view.

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France – Corporate debt ratios : should we be worried?

  • Edition July 12, 2017

    The debt ratio of non-financial companies (NFCs), defined as the ratio of debt (Credits and debt securities) to value-added, has grown significantly since 2006 to reach a rec-ord high of close to 135% at the beginning of 2017. At first sight, this development seems worrying. Nevertheless, other measures, such as net debt ratio or the debt-to-equity ratio (ratios linked to corporate accounting) provide a more reassuring image.

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France – Public Finance: The budgetary balances of the new presidency

  • Edition June 7, 2017

    Neither the details of the 2018 Finance Act nor the fiscal trajectory for 2018-2022 are as yet precisely known; they will be announced in October. But we can already set out their main outlines in light of Emmanuel Macron's election manifesto. Fiscal stimulus measures are expected to amount to 50 billion euros. To finance these and narrow the deficit, major cuts will be imposed, mainly in public spending, amounting to 70 billion euros. The deficit should be gradually narrowed to around 1% of GDP in 2022.

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