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France

France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2017-2018

  • Edition July 26, 2017

    The housing market was very active in 2016 and in the first half of 2017. The recovery is mainly linked to two factors: extremely low mortgage lending rates, which are now starting to edge up, boosting sales through a windfall effect; and the new-build stimulus plan with the Pinel scheme and the strengthening of the PTZ interest-free loan. Is this strength likely to persist, at a time when lending rates are timidly embarking on an uptrend? Two main scenarios seem possible, in our view.

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France – Corporate debt ratios : should we be worried?

  • Edition July 12, 2017

    The debt ratio of non-financial companies (NFCs), defined as the ratio of debt (Credits and debt securities) to value-added, has grown significantly since 2006 to reach a rec-ord high of close to 135% at the beginning of 2017. At first sight, this development seems worrying. Nevertheless, other measures, such as net debt ratio or the debt-to-equity ratio (ratios linked to corporate accounting) provide a more reassuring image.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

France – Public Finance: The budgetary balances of the new presidency

  • Edition June 7, 2017

    Neither the details of the 2018 Finance Act nor the fiscal trajectory for 2018-2022 are as yet precisely known; they will be announced in October. But we can already set out their main outlines in light of Emmanuel Macron's election manifesto. Fiscal stimulus measures are expected to amount to 50 billion euros. To finance these and narrow the deficit, major cuts will be imposed, mainly in public spending, amounting to 70 billion euros. The deficit should be gradually narrowed to around 1% of GDP in 2022.

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France – Macroeconomic scenario 2017-2018 : A modest recovery but with signs of improvement

  • Edition May 23, 2017

    In 2016, over the full year, French growth came out at 1.1%, a pace very similar to that of 2015 (1.2%), and was therefore disappointing despite that much vaunted "alignment of the planets" (ie, the combination of a weak euro, record low interest rates, and cheap energy). We foresee an improvement in growth, to 1.3% in 2017 and to 1.4% in 2018. This scenario of modest recovery is in line with the recent business surveys.

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France – Housing market: Recent developments and outlook for 2017-2018, Slight fall ahead

  • Edition May 23, 2017
    The housing market had a record year in 2016, with very high transaction volumes, reaching the level of the highs of the previous housing boom (2006-2007). The housing market continued upbeat in early 2017 but could see a slight dip in the second half and in 2018. Mortgage lending rates began to rise very slightly in early 2017. This trend seems likely to pick up gradually on the back of the slow rise in 10-year OAT rates. Moreover, prices are still high and have begun rising again.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Aligning timescales

  • Edition April 3, 2017

    Politics is a long game, the financial markets an extremely short one. The economy could be said to be somewhere in between. It is necessary to reconcile the durations of those three games to compose an economic and financial scenario that does not bring too much dissonance. In such a scenario the cycle will prosper, and even strengthen, provided that political risks do not materialise due to a draconian tightening of financial conditions.

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