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France

France – Pensions: The state of play and future reform issues

  • Edition December 3, 2018

    The reforms in the 2000s warded off the risk of a severe deterioration in the pension systems deficit. The financial balance, which is currently close to equilibrium, is likely to remain so in the short term. It is felt to be positive in favourable scenarios, but would again go into deficit, by 1-1.5% of GDP a year from 2030 in the more cautious scenarios. A new pensions reform has been announced whose prime objective is to roll out a universal regime that would be clearer and fairer. It would still be a pay-as-you-go system but would shift completely to a points-based regime.

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France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition October 31, 2018

    After an exceptional year in 2017, the housing market has again been sustained in 2018, but is not showing any signs of a bubble or overheating. On the contrary, signs of cooling have been growing, with a slight dip in sales of pre-owned homes, a more marked drop in sales of new-build homes, and a slowdown in prices and mortgage lending. In 2019, the market will continue to slow very gently, with a slight fall-off in transactions and a slowdown of housing prices.

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France: 2018-2019 Scenario

  • Edition 24 October 2018

    The first half was marked by a certain desynchronisation among the main economic regions. Growth remained upbeat in the United States and fairly stable in the eurozone, while some emerging countries experienced specific difficulties. In France, the growth outlook has been revised down slightly. After 2.3% growth in 2017, we are forecasting further fairly robust growth in 2018 and 2019 at 1.6% a year.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts

  • Edition October 3, 2018

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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France – Draft budget for 2019: Public deficit to increase temporarily to 2.8% of GDP in 2019

  • Edition September 28, 2018

    On 24 September, the French government presented its draft finance bill for 2019. The public deficit will increase slightly, to 2.8% of GDP in 2019 vs. 2.6% in 2018. The public debt ratio should stabilise at 98.6% of GDP. The slight increase in the deficit is temporary and is due to switching the CICE tax credit into a reduction in contributions. The reduction in levies will amount to around 25 billion euros (net) in 2019, 6 for households and 19 for businesses.

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France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition August 1, 2018

    The French real-estate market experienced an exceptional year in 2017. The first signs of a cooling in the market have emerged since the start of the year. This contraction is set to continue in 2018-2019. Firstly, the gradual refocusing of the Pinel scheme and the PTZ on the most sought-after areas will reduce sales of new-build properties. Secondly, mortgage lending rates are set to increase slightly and the increase in house prices will reduce the households' purchasing power and encouraging buyers to take a more wait-and-see approach.

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France – Scenario 2018-2019

  • Edition 25 July 2018

    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, growth stood at around 1% in France. It then accelerated sharply in 2017, to 2.3%. For 2018 and 2019, we expect growth to remain strong, at 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively.

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