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CEE and Central Asia

Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: plenty of twists and turns to negotiate cautiously

  • Edition December 21, 2018

    It might be smarter to use the multiple and multifarious risks facing us to draw up an alarmist scenario. Economies are undoubtedly slowing down, but still in a very uneven way. The Eurozone seems to be looking for its second wind, Japan is struggling to boost domestic demand and Chinese growth is likely to disappoint at the start of the year; however, the US should see another year of prosperity. In 2019, growth rates should continue to slow, accompanied by measured monetary tightening and a very modest increase in risk-free interest rates.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic & financial forecasts

World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: "And yet it moves"

  • Edition October 4, 2018

    There are plenty of genuine causes for concern. Some threats are still looming, and it is difficult – if not illusory – to assign a probability to them and give them tangible consistency; others have already taken shape. The global economy is proving quite resilient. Nevertheless, even before these threats have a tangible influence on the real economy, their effects are being felt in financial variables and expectations.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: The end is not yet nigh

  • Edition July 10, 2018

    Despite tightening financial conditions in the US and a possible worsening of trade tensions, a cyclical downturn is not imminent. The heady days of simultaneous expansion are, however, now well and truly over. Growth is still running high in the US and remains vigorous in the Eurozone after a temporary loss of impetus, though it looks set to recede in the emerging economies – the first region to suffer from the killer combination of a rising dollar, rising US interest rates, and growing fears of protectionism.

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Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition May 29, 2018

    Highlights: What is to be done with the Balkans, Europe's enfants terribles? Is there a risk of a hard landing in Turkey? Saudi Arabia's authorities are concerned by the sharp rise in unemployment. Moody's has downgraded Angola's sovereign debt rating by a notch. In India, victory leaves a bitter taste. Argentina is playing an old, hopeless and costly game.

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Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition April 10, 2018

    Highlights: Slovenia is the good student of the European Union. Despite weakening, the Qatar economy is proving fairly resilient to the embargo. The IMF welcomes Nigeria's emergence from recession but warns about an economy that is still convalescent. China has a new vice Prime Minister. As a sign, among other things, of culpable interference between the Argentinian state and the Central Bank, inflation is picking up.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

  • Edition April 4, 2018

    The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.

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