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Asia and Oceania

Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition December 13, 2017
    Highlights: In Romania, overheating could signal a cyclical downturn. In Russia, the latest growth statistics show a dip. GDP growth is picking up in Nigeria. Growth is firming up In India. In Chile, the first round of the presidential election saw the investors' favourite poll a disappointing score.

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Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition November 9, 2017
    Highlights: How to interpret the populist choice of Czech voters? In Algeria, monetising the budget deficit is a dangerous thing. In South Africa, the Finance Minister has admitted to Parliament that the country's deficit was set to widen. In China, Xi Jinping is almost more powerful than Mao. The Argentinian government has scored political successes but poor economic results.

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Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition October 12, 2017

    Highlights: Heading for a peak in the growth cycle in Central Europe. Uzbek devaluation and the threat of a market feeding frenzy in Central Asia. North Africa and Iran are countries whose currencies are threatened by imbalances. Rumours of a cut in key rates abound in South Africa. India's growth rate has kept on slowing since the start of 2016. Sure, the worst is over for Brazilians, but… is the future any more brilliant?

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Inflation, the long absence

  • Edition October 4, 2017

    We had despaired of ever seeing investment pick up and jobs being created, and then of seeing wages gain traction. These classic ingredients of a burgeoning cycle are now in place, even if to differing degrees from one economy to another. On the other hand, there is no sign of the sort of inflation one would expect to see at this point in the cycle. What should we be making of such a long absence? That it reflects structural changes in price formation and also that it makes the oversight of central banks and inflation-targeting far more complex.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition July 19, 2017

    Highlights: In the Balkans, the Trieste meeting raised the question of the creation of a common market and/or political issues. The crisis in the Gulf States will have a negative, long-term impact on the image of the GCC. Two interesting figures were published in South Africa: inflation and the Q1 2017 current account deficit. Chinese shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have been included in the composite MSCI Emerging Markets Index. In Brazil, Michel Temer is battling for his political survival.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Pleasant surprises of a slow-burn cycle

  • Edition July 3, 2017

    The slow-burn cycle is currently delivering some pleasant surprises. There are no signs on the horizon of the excesses typical of a premature and often sudden end to a cycle. In particular, we are desperately seeking inflation. As a result, a ‘harmonious' economic scenario where monetary support mechanisms will only gradually be withdrawn is developing – this is a reasonably optimistic scenario where financial conditions are not brutally tightening. It would be easy to draw up a dark economic scenario, where every latent risk raises its head, and predict the end of the world as we know it. But we will refrain from that and posit a reasonably optimistic scenario.

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