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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: prevention better than cure

  • Edition April 15, 2019

    The strong, synchronised cycle of global growth has ended. Alongside hopes that the US-China trade negotiations will result in a deal and that Chinese growth picks up – but not deceiving ourselves about China's ability to drive the world economy – we are seeing signs of flagging, although not a collapse. The major economies will mainly rely on the strength of their domestic demand to achieve a soft landing that is close to potential growth rates. And, preferring prevention rather than cure, cautious central banks have opted for more accommodative monetary policy than expected.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: Economic & financial forecasts

Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: plenty of twists and turns to negotiate cautiously

  • Edition December 21, 2018

    It might be smarter to use the multiple and multifarious risks facing us to draw up an alarmist scenario. Economies are undoubtedly slowing down, but still in a very uneven way. The Eurozone seems to be looking for its second wind, Japan is struggling to boost domestic demand and Chinese growth is likely to disappoint at the start of the year; however, the US should see another year of prosperity. In 2019, growth rates should continue to slow, accompanied by measured monetary tightening and a very modest increase in risk-free interest rates.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: "And yet it moves"

  • Edition October 4, 2018

    There are plenty of genuine causes for concern. Some threats are still looming, and it is difficult – if not illusory – to assign a probability to them and give them tangible consistency; others have already taken shape. The global economy is proving quite resilient. Nevertheless, even before these threats have a tangible influence on the real economy, their effects are being felt in financial variables and expectations.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: The end is not yet nigh

  • Edition July 10, 2018

    Despite tightening financial conditions in the US and a possible worsening of trade tensions, a cyclical downturn is not imminent. The heady days of simultaneous expansion are, however, now well and truly over. Growth is still running high in the US and remains vigorous in the Eurozone after a temporary loss of impetus, though it looks set to recede in the emerging economies – the first region to suffer from the killer combination of a rising dollar, rising US interest rates, and growing fears of protectionism.

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Europe – Foreign trade – Trade war: the price to be paid

  • Edition May 2018

    The announcements concerning the Trump administration's trade policy present a serious challenge for the European Union. If it fails to bring the US back to the WTO's negotiating table, the European Union could either enter into bilateral negotiations, or lodge a complaint with the WTO in order to obtain compensation. Both options carry a cost, be it having to renounce multilateralism, or face an escalation of the trade conflict with the US.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Cruel Imagination...

  • Edition December 21, 2017

    Even as we anxiously scan the horizon for harbingers of a downturn, the cycle continues to amaze us with its quiet power and its general propagation. To identify some of the essential ingredients of the current cycle, we should look to the great financial crisis of 2008. The depth of the crisis explains why it is taking so long for the scars to heal and why the real imbalances have yet to manifest themselves, especially in the shape of inflation. The upward cycle is therefore likely to continue for a few quarters yet. Monetary policies, which are accommodative despite actual or planned tightening, are underpinning growth. The resorption of public imbalances is made easier by low interest rates, and we see no reason why they should rise suddenly.

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