• Size up
  • Size down
  • Share this article
  • Print this page

North America

World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Aligning timescales

  • Edition April 3, 2017

    Politics is a long game, the financial markets an extremely short one. The economy could be said to be somewhere in between. It is necessary to reconcile the durations of those three games to compose an economic and financial scenario that does not bring too much dissonance. In such a scenario the cycle will prosper, and even strengthen, provided that political risks do not materialise due to a draconian tightening of financial conditions.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 989.31 Ko)

World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

US-Rate hike but little change in views

  • Edition du 16 mars 2017

    As widely expected, the FOMC raised the Fed funds (FF) target by 25 bps to a range of 0.75% to 1.00%. The Fed's median projection for the FF rate at the end of 2017 was 1.4%, implying two additional 25 bps rate hikes this year. This is unchanged from the December projection as was the projection for yearend 2018 at 2.1%, implying 3 additional hikes next year. The longer-run fed funds rate projection remained at 3.0%.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 434.18 Ko)

US-D.C. Update: From words to acts- fiscal policy obstacles

  • Edition March 1st, 2017

    The Republican's key legislative focus this year is on repealing the ACA and passing a tax reform package. That is a very ambitious agenda that is unlikely to be implemented before next year, in our view. ACA Repeal/Replace: Easier said than done. The current proposals have yet to convince a majority in Congress given concerns for millions who may lose their health insurance coverage in the years ahead and tax hikes for those with generous health care plans. The House leadership plans to move forward with its proposals nonetheless.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 555.94 Ko)

US- Prepping the markets for a hike

  • Edition February 16, 2017

    US economic performance is likely to warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate. Chair Yellen reiterated her view that "waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession."

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 392.56 Ko)

FOMC: Policy unchanged. No hints on timing of next hike

  • Edition 2 February, 2017

    As widely expected, the FOMC left its monetary policy unchanged with the Fed funds rate target range maintained at 0.5% to 0.75% at its February meeting. The Fed's balance sheet reinvestment policies were also unchanged.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 282.13 Ko)

Political issues – Where the anger is coming from

  • Edition January 18, 2016

    The issue of populist movements does not stop at elections. In the longer term, it poses the problem of the legitimacy of elites and solutions for reconciling democracy and globalisation. In fact, we have now entered into a political cycle, ie, a point in history where politics has taken over from the economy and is imposing its own rationality. There is no going back: we are seing a transition of both internal and external political equilibrium.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 795.45 Ko)

Subscription

Follow the economic activity!

Sectors, regions, videos, graphics... all the economic information that you needs !

Already a subscriber ? Log in