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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Inflation, the long absence

  • Edition October 4, 2017

    We had despaired of ever seeing investment pick up and jobs being created, and then of seeing wages gain traction. These classic ingredients of a burgeoning cycle are now in place, even if to differing degrees from one economy to another. On the other hand, there is no sign of the sort of inflation one would expect to see at this point in the cycle. What should we be making of such a long absence? That it reflects structural changes in price formation and also that it makes the oversight of central banks and inflation-targeting far more complex.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

US Congress is back in session with an urgent legislative agenda

  • Edition 5 september 2017

    A USD7.9bn down payment on disaster recovery relief requested by President Trump for victims of hurricane Harvey is likely to be approved quickly. Congress will need to raise or suspend the debt limit to avoid a potential Treasury default. The debt limit legislation might be linked to the increased spending appropriation for disaster relief in the wake of hurricane Harvey.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Pleasant surprises of a slow-burn cycle

  • Edition July 3, 2017

    The slow-burn cycle is currently delivering some pleasant surprises. There are no signs on the horizon of the excesses typical of a premature and often sudden end to a cycle. In particular, we are desperately seeking inflation. As a result, a ‘harmonious' economic scenario where monetary support mechanisms will only gradually be withdrawn is developing – this is a reasonably optimistic scenario where financial conditions are not brutally tightening. It would be easy to draw up a dark economic scenario, where every latent risk raises its head, and predict the end of the world as we know it. But we will refrain from that and posit a reasonably optimistic scenario.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Aligning timescales

  • Edition April 3, 2017

    Politics is a long game, the financial markets an extremely short one. The economy could be said to be somewhere in between. It is necessary to reconcile the durations of those three games to compose an economic and financial scenario that does not bring too much dissonance. In such a scenario the cycle will prosper, and even strengthen, provided that political risks do not materialise due to a draconian tightening of financial conditions.

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US-Rate hike but little change in views

  • Edition du 16 mars 2017

    As widely expected, the FOMC raised the Fed funds (FF) target by 25 bps to a range of 0.75% to 1.00%. The Fed's median projection for the FF rate at the end of 2017 was 1.4%, implying two additional 25 bps rate hikes this year. This is unchanged from the December projection as was the projection for yearend 2018 at 2.1%, implying 3 additional hikes next year. The longer-run fed funds rate projection remained at 3.0%.

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US-D.C. Update: From words to acts- fiscal policy obstacles

  • Edition March 1st, 2017

    The Republican's key legislative focus this year is on repealing the ACA and passing a tax reform package. That is a very ambitious agenda that is unlikely to be implemented before next year, in our view. ACA Repeal/Replace: Easier said than done. The current proposals have yet to convince a majority in Congress given concerns for millions who may lose their health insurance coverage in the years ahead and tax hikes for those with generous health care plans. The House leadership plans to move forward with its proposals nonetheless.

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