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Highlights: Azerbaijan is at the mercy of oil... Serbia and Kosovo have awoken their old demons. In Saudi Arabia, a reformist 2017 budget has been drawn up on the basis of Brent at USD 50/bbl. In Côte d'Ivoire, the crisis has multiple faces. In China, 2017 will be a year of challenges. Is Mexico staring at the end of NAFTA?
The issue of populist movements does not stop at elections. In the longer term, it poses the problem of the legitimacy of elites and solutions for reconciling democracy and globalisation. In fact, we have now entered into a political cycle, ie, a point in history where politics has taken over from the economy and is imposing its own rationality. There is no going back: we are seing a transition of both internal and external political equilibrium.
Highlights: Doubts persist as to Turkey's potential for growth. In Serbia, the public finances are improving faster than expected. In Egypt, the new floating exchange rate regime has devalued the pound by 57% in 12 months and triggered a new bout of inflation. In South Africa, the economy is flagging in a gloomy climate. Is China moving towards making fewer foreign acquisitions? GDP has again fallen in the third quarter in Brazil.
This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.
Clearly, the geopolitical, political and economic risks facing the world are many and multifarious. And it's no easy matter to isolate those that seem most apparent to us. In this respect, a sudden tightening of financial conditions does not yet seem an imminent danger. While 2017 is not looking as if it will be the year of living dangerously, 2018 could well be more fraught.
Highlights: Russia's Central Bank is on the horns of dilemmas. Turkey is seeing a very significant worsening of its corruption indicators. In Tunisia, the economy is ailing despite the aid, but there is some political hope. In South Africa, the budget has been revised in a toxic atmosphere. In China, the Communist Party's Plenum was held under the banner of transparency... Brazil cuts its key rate for the first time since 2012 (but only by 25bp).
Highlights: Hungary's sovereign paper "investment grade" rating has been reinstated. What is the nature of the Russian regime? In Egypt, support from multilateral agencies has helped boost reserves, but the conditionalities are painful. Q2 external demand has been saved from recession in South Africa. India has adopted a law designed to unify the tax system for goods and services at national level. Mexico: why is the peso so weak and the key rate so high?
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