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The strong, synchronised cycle of global growth has ended. Alongside hopes that the US-China trade negotiations will result in a deal and that Chinese growth picks up – but not deceiving ourselves about China's ability to drive the world economy – we are seeing signs of flagging, although not a collapse. The major economies will mainly rely on the strength of their domestic demand to achieve a soft landing that is close to potential growth rates. And, preferring prevention rather than cure, cautious central banks have opted for more accommodative monetary policy than expected.
Subject to a China-US agreement and a pick-up in Chinese growth, the end off the global cycle still looks as if it will be “orderly”. In showing themselves to be more accommodating than expected, central banks have, nevertheless, decided that ...
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