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Edition April 4, 2018 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition April 4, 2018

    World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

    The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.

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  • Scenario - The risk? American

    The US fiscal stimulus will give a temporary, mistimed boost to growth that is already at the top of its cycle and make the task of engineering the soft landing that the Federal Reserve will strive to promote far more complex. Based on the twin as...

  • Content:

    - Developed countries – Risk? Think American 
    - Emerging countries – Stretching the elastic 
    - Oil – Geopolitical risk to rise in 2019
    - Monetary policy – Seeking the right dosage
    - Interest rates –The “false” fear of inflation
    - Exchange rates –The softening of the dollar, past, present and future
    - Economic and financial forecasts

  • Extract:

    In the Eurozone, the recovery phase, accompanied by its share of nice surprises, is now behind us and the economy is settling into its growth phase. The sometimes disappointing findings of the surveys are not flagging up a cyclical reversal, but its natural slowdown. They reflect nothing more than expectations adapting to reality. The confidence of economic agents has become more consistent, thanks to the strength of developments in the real economy. The strength of the fundamentals suggests further sustained growth rates, of close to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with no significant pick-up in inflation. Thus, there is no threat of a monetary emergency and the ECB's monetary policy should very gradually become less accommodative.

    The emerging world should see stable growth of around 4.7% in 2018 – satisfactory without setting pulses racing.

  • Associative topics : Africa and Middle East | Asia and Oceania | CEE and Central Asia | Economics | Europe | France | Industry and Services | Latin America


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