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The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.
The US fiscal stimulus will give a temporary, mistimed boost to growth that is already at the top of its cycle and make the task of engineering the soft landing that the Federal Reserve will strive to promote far more complex. Based on the twin as...
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