9 10,12,16,9,14,11
Edition December 21, 2017 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition December 21, 2017

    World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Cruel Imagination...

    Even as we anxiously scan the horizon for harbingers of a downturn, the cycle continues to amaze us with its quiet power and its general propagation. To identify some of the essential ingredients of the current cycle, we should look to the great financial crisis of 2008. The depth of the crisis explains why it is taking so long for the scars to heal and why the real imbalances have yet to manifest themselves, especially in the shape of inflation. The upward cycle is therefore likely to continue for a few quarters yet. Monetary policies, which are accommodative despite actual or planned tightening, are underpinning growth. The resorption of public imbalances is made easier by low interest rates, and we see no reason why they should rise suddenly.

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  • Scenario: The cycle has still bright days ahead

    The cycle is gladdening due to its robust character and longevity, which can doubtless be explained by the brutal nature of the 2008 crisis. The recovery is continuing. There is no monetary urgency, and interest rates look set to rise slowly.
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  • Content:

    - Developed countries – Cyclical serenity
    - Emerging countries – To benign to be true?
    - Oil – Excellent prospects for 2018
    - Monetary policy – No monetary urgency 
    - Interest rates – Slow rise
    - Exchange rates – And the winner is?
    - Economic and financial forecasts

  • Extract:

    There is still no threat of inflationary pressure. By end-2018, inflation is forecast to reach 2.2% in the US and 1.4% in the Eurozone. Central banks are not lagging behind the real cycle, so there is no monetary urgency. Monetary policies, which are accommodative despite actual or planned tightening, are underpinning growth. The resorption of public imbalances is made easier by low interest rates and there is no reason why rates should rise suddenly. We continue to forecast a very slow increase in long-term rates and in real rates, which look set to remain at record-low levels or even in negative territory.

  • Associative topics : Africa and Middle East | Asia and Oceania | CEE and Central Asia | Economics | Europe | Latin America | North America

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