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The slow-burn cycle is currently delivering some pleasant surprises. There are no signs on the horizon of the excesses typical of a premature and often sudden end to a cycle. In particular, we are desperately seeking inflation. As a result, a ‘harmonious' economic scenario where monetary support mechanisms will only gradually be withdrawn is developing – this is a reasonably optimistic scenario where financial conditions are not brutally tightening. It would be easy to draw up a dark economic scenario, where every latent risk raises its head, and predict the end of the world as we know it. But we will refrain from that and posit a reasonably optimistic scenario.
Growth is flourishing without degenerating into inflation. It seems able to withstand a gradual withdrawal of monetary support mechanisms. This homeopathic, cautious, gradualism raises hopes that financial conditions will not deteriorate suddenly....
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