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We had despaired of ever seeing investment pick up and jobs being created, and then of seeing wages gain traction. These classic ingredients of a burgeoning cycle are now in place, even if to differing degrees from one economy to another. On the other hand, there is no sign of the sort of inflation one would expect to see at this point in the cycle. What should we be making of such a long absence? That it reflects structural changes in price formation and also that it makes the oversight of central banks and inflation-targeting far more complex.
Picture a global economic cycle that is prospering without generating the imbalances that traditionally herald a downturn. "Accommodative" monetary policies: there is no hurry and we must safeguard the markets as US quantitative tightening kicks i...
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