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Edition March 31, 2016 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition March 31, 2016

    World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2016-2017: Keeping a sense of balance

    In the industrialised world, inflation is struggling to pick up. Growth is holding its own but is not accelerating. Monetary policies designed to stimulate economies have reached some of their limitations. Risks are piling up – diffuse and varied. But we do not want our scenario to cause anxiety, even if predicting "the end of the world as we know it" would be the easy strategy.

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  • Not the end of the world after all

    Political, geopolitical, economic and financial: the risks are multiple, interconnected, and mutually sustaining. They are very clear, and the concerns are legitimate. Fact. But some of them do seem exaggerated in our view, and the industrialised ...

  • Content:

    - Developed economies – Counting on their own strengths
    - Emerging countries – Welcome to a world of risk
    - Oil – A feverish market dogged by uncertainty
    - Monetary policy – Extreme vigilance versus bold easing
    - Interest rates – Central Banks still leading the dance
    - Exchange rates – Weaker euro clearly no longer an essential target, and yet…
    - Economic and financial forecasts

  • Extract - Keeping a sense of balance

    There's a lengthy list of risks piling up upstream of our economic scenario. In addition to the geopolitical and political risks, consider also the following concerns: collapsing Chinese growth; a brutal, uncontrolled depreciation of its currency by Beijing; commodity prices plummeting again; a sharp slowdown in US growth; a sharp increase in corporate bankruptcies in the US oil sector; Eurozone deflation; and the inevitable miring of the emerging world in recession. These risks are especially frightening as gauging their possible dire consequences is a difficult, if not impossible, task… particularly as they are all connected and mutually sustaining.

    To round off this already long list, and be certain of the imminence of catastrophic meltdown, the assumption that central banks have already used up all their ammunition is sometimes put forward. In the event of a marked growth slowdown, in the US in particular, it is felt that central banks would lack any means of action.

  • EMU: industrial production

    GDP growth was also able to count on a smaller contribution to inventory building than in the previous quarter, when weak foreign demand meant it was not possible to sell a substantial proportion of output, leading to a drop in manufacturing activity at year-end. This is a good sign for the manufacturing cycle at the start of the year, which, with its January rebound, left us with a more sustained growth overhang in Q116 (0.4% q/q).

    EMU: industrial production
  • Associative topics : Africa and Middle East | Asia and Oceania | CEE and Central Asia | Economics | Europe | Latin America | North America


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