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Edition July 13, 2016 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition July 13, 2016

    World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2016-2017: A Brexit-inflected scenario

    In the 23 June referendum, a majority of the UK electorate voted in favour of leaving the European Union. Close to 52% of voters opted for a Brexit in a very clear-cut result, especially as the participation rate was a high 72.2%. Apart from the UK, obviously, the economic damage to the rest of the world, at this stage, seems relatively absorbable. Persistent financial uncertainty and volatility are not, however, conducive to investment, which is a source of lasting growth. Conversely, the political fallout is enormous and multifarious. The vote shows us the sad spectacle of where political opportunism and recklessness can lead. It also teaches us that ‘it isn't conceivable because it would be catastrophic' is not a strong political argument.

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  • Content:

    - Monetary policy – Brexit and "shifting the bar"
    - Long term interest rates: what are they?
    - Exchange rates – Brexit the central concern
    - Oil – Price recovery firming
    - Developed countries – Fortunately, households are resilient
    - Emerging countries – less risk, but not more growth
    - Economic and financial forecasts 

  • Extract:

    British hesitation will, at the end of the day, be welcomed by the EU27. It will allow them time to define a common response at the next meeting of the European Council in Bratislava in September. It is hard to imagine a common response. It will be the outcome of the balance of power not only among countries, but also among parties. This response should allow for a ‘peaceful' dialogue with the UK and the development of a relationship driven by pragmatism and not by ideology alone. This is because the new mode of cooperation with the UK will not be devoid of consequences for the future relations between EU member states themselves. The idea that lessons should be learned from the UK crisis was already integrated into the agreement proposed by the EU back in February, in which certain areas of concern specific to other member states too were addressed, namely immigration, subsidiarity and relations between Eurozone and non-Eurozone states.

  • Associative topics : Africa and Middle East | Asia and Oceania | CEE and Central Asia | Economics | Europe | France | Industry and Services | Latin America | North America


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