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Edition 20 January, 2017 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition 20 January, 2017

    United kingdom – So ambitious it could prove unrealistic

    On 17 January, UK PM Theresa May clarified the broad objectives of her government's plan for the Brexit. The UK will leave the Single Market and the customs union. It will seek a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union and ambitious trade deals with third countries. May also promised a parliamentary vote on the final terms of the Brexit.

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  • Contents:

    - The UK government's plan: wishful thinking, and still cherry-picking
    - What next? Delays still cannot be ruled out
    - Our scenario: difficult negotiations ending with reduced access to the Single Market
  • Extract – A lot of open questions remain

    May's speech was welcomed by the markets, judging by the surge in the GBP. Its merits were the clarity it brought to the government's objectives and the firm commitment of the UK government to pursue a continued free trade agreement with the EU – which is obviously good for businesses. However, it did little to lift the uncertainty regarding the most complicated and touchy questions, such as the future of the City of London's passporting rights or how to conciliate the aims of Scotland to remain in the Single Market. While the PM ruled out an “unlimited transitional status”, she did not explain how long the implementation period would last. She did not clarify what the UK's position relative to the EU would be during the implementation phase.

  • UK voting intentions: if there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

    Polls conducted after May's speech on Brexit show that a majority of the public support the sort of Brexit she is seeking to achieve. The public preference for the Conservative party has been boosted to a 17-point lead relative to Labour (when undecided people are excluded).

    UK voting intentions: if there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
  • Associative topics : Economics | Europe


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