Last publications
Edition april 20, 2018

Germany – 2018-2019 scenario: Outlook at Q1-2018

<p>After a strong growth in 2017, we expect activity growth to be also robust in 2018 and a slight slowdown in 2019. The unemployment rate has not yet reached its bottom and underemployed part-time workers represent a potential source of additional workforce to meet the increased demand. Domestic demand remains the main pillar of growth, while external demand may suffer from a more protectionist environment than in the past.<br></p>

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Edition April 10, 2018

Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

<p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Highlights</span>: Slovenia is the good student of the European Union. Despite weakening, the Qatar economy is proving fairly resilient to the embargo. The IMF welcomes Nigeria's emergence from recession but warns about an economy that is still convalescent. China has a new vice Prime Minister. As a sign, among other things, of culpable interference between the Argentinian state and the Central Bank, inflation is picking up.<br></p>

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Edition April 4, 2018

World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

<p>The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.<br></p>

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Edition April 4, 2018

World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts

<p>This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.</p>

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Edition 28 March 2018

United Kingdom – Brexit: considerable progress, but the hardest part is yet to come

<p>Considerable progress was made in the Brexit negotiations over the last few weeks. The main advances have been the translation into legal terms of the political commitments made when the preliminary divorce agreement was reached on 8 December 2017. These concern the divorce bill and the rights of UK and EU nationals. The negotiators have also agreed on a transition period until the end of 2020.&nbsp;</p>

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Edition 27 March 2018

Italy – Political risk contained by growth and improvement in the banking sector

<p>The new government has scant leeway for its first main task, the 2019 budget, owing to the multi-year fiscal trajectory negotiated with the European Commission that is ill-compatible with electoral promises. It is in this area, as well as in the continuation of the structural reforms introduced by the outgoing government, that the reliability of the new coalition will be judged by European partners, rating agencies and investors.<br></p>

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Edition March 7, 2018

Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

<p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Highlights</span>: It's not growth that is missing in Central and Eastern Europe... In Saudi Arabia, there are doubts about the rebalancing of the growth model. In Sub-Saharan Africa, dependence on commodity exports remains strong and raises the issue of economic diversification. In India exchange rate risk is higher, Brazil delivers a kaleidoscope of data for a poorly enthusiastic panorama.<br></p>

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