We have revised our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% q/q (compared with the initial 0.9%), in line with the upside risks signalled in the Crédit Agricole leading indicators. The indicator based on survey data points to a GDP growth rate of 1.1% q/q in Q2 2010, while that based on activity data indicates growth of 1.5% q/q.
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While the economic crisis undergoes its multiple transformations, two recent announcements-the creation of a "synthetic cell" and a new family of components that opens the way for quantum computers-come as reminders that technology is continuing to progress. Information technology has been the innovation fueling economic growth for the past 50 years. Will nanotechnology be the engine for the next cycle? Nanotechnology is extraordinarily promising, but also raises issues of societal choice that call for citizen participation.
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South Africa has confounded the doomsayers of 1994 - both those who predicted that the black majority's accession to power would lead to economic and institutional decay in very short order, and those who feared that the charisma and caution of the new leaders would not go far enough to meet the expectations or simply contain the frustrations of the people. They (we) were wrong.
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This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.
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