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Edition December 15, 2017 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition December 15, 2017

    Spain – Political issues: Issues and consequences of the Catalan elections

    Although likely to continue as the leading political Catalan political force, the separatists have not formed a united front for the forthcoming regional election of December 21st. A new separatist government with the support of Podemos seems the most probable outcome. However, if the division within the secessionism camp lower the probability of a renewed unilateral road map no longer seems to be on the agenda, those divisions mean that we cannot rule out the possibility of a new election.

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  • Contents:

    - What is the situation in Catalonia after the activation of article 155?
    - What about the economic consequences?
    - Likely consequences on the national political scene?

  • Extract: Secessionism remains the main Catalan political force

    The average results of the polls available in December show that the composition of the Catalan political landscape has hardly changed since the last elections in September 2015, with a secessionist bloc that continues to garner over 45% of votes, without having a majority in the Catalan electorate. Separatism continues to be strongly rooted in rural constituencies (exceeding 65% of the votes cast in 2015 in the provinces of Girona and Lleida, compared with less than 50% of the vote in Barcelona and Tarragona provinces), which are over-represented on the Catalan electoral map ; this gave separatists the benefit of a parliamentary majority of 72 seats (53% of the total). However, the very latest polls give the separatist bloc the smallest possible majority of 68 seats in the Parlament.

  • The Catalan crisis impacted slightly the Spanish economy

    In light of the hard data from October and the November surveys, October's political tension seems to have had a very limited impact on Spanish growth in Q4 2017. The sharp drop in activity observed in Catalonia seems to have been offset by vigorous growth in the rest of the country. The economic cycle could even strengthen at year-end. Its resilience ought thus to bolster private consumption despite the sharp drop in retail sales seen in October due to their collapse in Catalonia.

    The Catalan crisis impacted slightly the Spanish economy
  • Associative topics : Economics | Europe


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