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Edition 29 September 2017 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition 29 September 2017

    Spain – Madrid vs Barcelona: 'més que un clasico'

    The continuing refusal of Madrid to open negotiations for further Catalan fiscal autonomy has pushed the Catalan nationalist conservatives towards secessionism, leading to the formation of a cross-party majority for independence in the Catalan Parlament. If a UDI is claimed, following a positive result in the referendum, its actual implementation seems unlikely, given the lack of strong popular support and the weaknesses of the secessionist majority.

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  • Contents:

    - What is behind the pro-independence surge in Catalonia over the past decade?
    - Declaring independence a way to gain leverage in Madrid
    - Can a long-term solution to the crisis be found?

  • Extract: The Yes vote is expected to win, but participation will be the key factor

    As in the last referendum in 2014, the majority of the Catalan votes cast will be from pro- independence supporters, given that those against do not recognise the legality of the referendum. However, a growing number of Catalans support the recognition of the right to self-determination of autonomous communities. While half the eligible voters declare themselves against Catalonia becoming an independent state, only a quarter of them are against any legal or illegal referendum. Thus, the mobilisation of Catalan voters, whatever their vote, will be key to gauge the balance of power among the secessionists (ERC, PDeCAT, CUP), those supporting the right to self- determination (CSQP), federalist (PSOE) and unionist (C's and PP) parties.

  • Opinion poll - referendum on self-determination

    That conversion stemmed from the cancellation in 2010 of some articles from the reformed Catalonian statute (Estatut) adopted in 2006, which was a campaign promise to PSC and other Catalanist parties from former socialist Spanish PM Jose Luis Zapatero (PSOE) from 2004 to 2011. Thus, independentism reached a peak of almost 50% in Catalan opinion polls at the end of 2014, while it had only 15% approval in 2006.

    Opinion poll - referendum on self-determination
  • Associative topics : Economics | Europe


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