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Economics

World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: "And yet it moves"

  • Edition October 4, 2018

    There are plenty of genuine causes for concern. Some threats are still looming, and it is difficult – if not illusory – to assign a probability to them and give them tangible consistency; others have already taken shape. The global economy is proving quite resilient. Nevertheless, even before these threats have a tangible influence on the real economy, their effects are being felt in financial variables and expectations.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts

  • Edition October 3, 2018

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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France – Draft budget for 2019: Public deficit to increase temporarily to 2.8% of GDP in 2019

  • Edition September 28, 2018

    On 24 September, the French government presented its draft finance bill for 2019. The public deficit will increase slightly, to 2.8% of GDP in 2019 vs. 2.6% in 2018. The public debt ratio should stabilise at 98.6% of GDP. The slight increase in the deficit is temporary and is due to switching the CICE tax credit into a reduction in contributions. The reduction in levies will amount to around 25 billion euros (net) in 2019, 6 for households and 19 for businesses.

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United Kingdom – Brexit enters a critical phase

  • Edition August 17, 2018

    In the autumn, the UK and the EU have to reach an agreement on the terms of the UK's departure from the EU and a ‘framework for a future relationship'. Our central scenario remains that a last-minute deal will eventually be reached (most likely at the European Council meeting on 13 December) and that a ‘cliff-edge' scenario will be avoided. Arguably, the political risks surrounding our scenario are varied and extreme, and can shift the Brexit process in one direction or another.

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UK – Bank of England: On course for slow tightening despite Brexit uncertainty

  • Edition August 6, 2018

    The BoE increased its key policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% at the August monetary policy meeting. Well flagged prior to the meeting, the move was largely anticipated by the markets. The vote was unanimous (9-0), contrary to expectations for a split vote. However, it is difficult to extract a clearly hawkish sign for future meetings. We continue to anticipate one rate hike per year, with the next rate hike expected in May 2019.

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Italy - Scenario 2018-2019: A stabilized growth

  • Edition August 1, 2018

    In 2017, Italian growth increased by 1.5%. Following the political events the country has been facing since March, we have revised our forecasts for the years 2018 and 2019 to 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.

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France – Scenario 2018-2019

  • Edition 25 July 2018

    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, growth stood at around 1% in France. It then accelerated sharply in 2017, to 2.3%. For 2018 and 2019, we expect growth to remain strong, at 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively.

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