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Economics

Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition May 29, 2018

    Highlights: What is to be done with the Balkans, Europe's enfants terribles? Is there a risk of a hard landing in Turkey? Saudi Arabia's authorities are concerned by the sharp rise in unemployment. Moody's has downgraded Angola's sovereign debt rating by a notch. In India, victory leaves a bitter taste. Argentina is playing an old, hopeless and costly game.

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France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition 14 May 2018

    The housing market saw a record year in 2017. We do not feel it likely that the market will overheat in 2018-2019. On the contrary, a slight dip is forecast. For one thing, the gradual refocusing of the Pinel buy-to-let scheme and the PTZ interest free housing loan on areas of housing shortages is forecast to cut new-build sales by 9% in 2018. Secondly, the gradual increase of lending rates combined with rising home prices will nibble away at households' ability to buy and make buyers more hesitant and wait-and-see.

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Europe – Foreign trade – Trade war: the price to be paid

  • Edition May 2018

    The announcements concerning the Trump administration's trade policy present a serious challenge for the European Union. If it fails to bring the US back to the WTO's negotiating table, the European Union could either enter into bilateral negotiations, or lodge a complaint with the WTO in order to obtain compensation. Both options carry a cost, be it having to renounce multilateralism, or face an escalation of the trade conflict with the US.

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France – 2018-2019 scenario: Robust growth in 2018-2019 despite increased recruitment difficulties

  • Edition May 2, 2018

    Q1 GDP showed slowing growth. This was expected and was justified by one-off factors; this does not suggest, however, that the French economy has begun a cyclical downswing. Over 2018 as a whole, the pace of growth is forecast to remain robust. France is experiencing increased recruitment difficulties that reveal a level of activity that it now nearing its potential, and a problem of labour suitability.

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United-Kingdom 2018-19 Scenario: outlook as at Q1 18

  • Edition April 25, 2018

    Negotiations on Brexit have moved forward since a preliminary divorce agreement was signed last December. The United Kingdom has ended up softening its red lines somewhat, without this leading to a major political crisis. The European Union has shown some flexibility while remaining firm on its fundamental principles. An agreement on a transition period was concluded in March. However, the hardest part is yet to come, with the Irish border issue to be settled by June.

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France – Stability Programme 2018 : Public deficit narrowing faster than expected

  • Edition April 24, 2018

    In mid-April, the French government presented its "Stability Programme" for 2018-2022. The document describes its public finance strategy over that period. The public deficit is narrowing more rapidly than expected. Reduced to 2.6% of GDP in 2017, it is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2018. Following a slight increase in 2019, to 2.4%, due to switching the CICE to a reduction in employer social contributions, it is expected to continue shrinking, with a small surplus forecast for 2022. The public debt ratio is expected to gradually fall.

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Germany – 2018-2019 scenario: Outlook at Q1-2018

  • Edition april 20, 2018

    After a strong growth in 2017, we expect activity growth to be also robust in 2018 and a slight slowdown in 2019. The unemployment rate has not yet reached its bottom and underemployed part-time workers represent a potential source of additional workforce to meet the increased demand. Domestic demand remains the main pillar of growth, while external demand may suffer from a more protectionist environment than in the past.

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