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Economics

United Kingdom – Bank of England to step up its pace of tightening slightly

  • Edition February 14, 2018

    The BoE unanimously decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged at its February meeting, but surprised markets with a hawkish stance. The BoE indicated that "monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period" than anticipated in November. We now expect the next rate hike in May, while we maintain our forecast for one additional rate increase in November this year and one in August next year.

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Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition February 6, 2018

    Highlights: There's a misunderstanding about narrowing the living standards gap in Hungary. In Russia, beware the slowdown. Economic performance was only average in the Middle East and North Africa in 2017, but there are hopes of a recovery in 2018. Sub-Saharan Africa: will 2018 be a better vintage for the region than 2017? No repeat performance in China. In Argentina, if you can't cut inflation, raise the target …

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France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition February 2, 2018

    The housing market saw a record year in 2017. The market is fairly unlikely to surge in 2018-2019. On the contrary, a slight dip in the market is forecast for two reasons. First, the refocusing of new-build support measures on areas where supply is tight. Second, an erosion in borrowers' ability to buy, with the slight increase in mortgage lending rates and a marked increase in the price of homes.

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United Kingdom – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

  • Edition 26 January 2018

    Brexit will be the dominant theme over the next few years. 2018 will be marked by the negotiations on a transition phase and on the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, while negotiations on the free-trade agreement should begin in 2019. Our central scenario is based on the key assumption that a withdrawal agreement will be reached between the UK and the EU under the terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

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Italy – Conjoncture: Please, do not hinder the virtuous circle

  • Edition January 18, 2018

    The consolidation of productive investment and a swifter decrease in unemployment feed into a more autonomous growth. This benefits the banking sector by sustaining restructuring efforts, more than ever dominated by a race to reduce NPLs. On the political front, the scenario of a post-election coalition between Forza Italia, the Centre and M. Renzi's democratic Party is loosing strength due to the latter's weakening.

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France – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

  • Edition January 17, 2018

    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, French growth was close to 1%. Growth accelerated sharply in 2017 and is expected to come out at 1.9%. We expect growth to continue at a robust pace in 2018 and 2019, at 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, but without accelerating on 2017.

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Germany – 2017-2018 scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

  • Edition January 17, 2018

    Our scenario for the German activity is based on a solid growth of 2.6% in 2017 and 2018. It's mainly supported by a strong domestic demand driven by both private consumption and productive investment. However, the surge in net exports also seems to contribute more sustainably to this phase of expansion of the economic cycle.

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