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Economics

Saudi Arabia – The rentier model in an era of reform and regional crisis

  • Edition August 1, 2017

    The lasting drop in the oil price to around 50 dollars a barrel is undermining the deeply rentier Saudi economy, which derives 90% of its tax receipts. A huge long-term structural reform plan ("Vision 2030") is ongoing to wean the country off its rentier economy. It is extremely ambitious, especially in its social components, where the challenges are greatest. However, the political and geopolitical environment is a source of growing concern.

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Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition July 19, 2017

    Highlights: In the Balkans, the Trieste meeting raised the question of the creation of a common market and/or political issues. The crisis in the Gulf States will have a negative, long-term impact on the image of the GCC. Two interesting figures were published in South Africa: inflation and the Q1 2017 current account deficit. Chinese shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have been included in the composite MSCI Emerging Markets Index. In Brazil, Michel Temer is battling for his political survival.

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France – Corporate debt ratios : should we be worried?

  • Edition July 12, 2017

    The debt ratio of non-financial companies (NFCs), defined as the ratio of debt (Credits and debt securities) to value-added, has grown significantly since 2006 to reach a rec-ord high of close to 135% at the beginning of 2017. At first sight, this development seems worrying. Nevertheless, other measures, such as net debt ratio or the debt-to-equity ratio (ratios linked to corporate accounting) provide a more reassuring image.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

UK: Heightened political uncertainty versus hopes for a softer Brexit

  • Edition June 16, 2017

    The 8 June snap election was a shock for Theresa May as it resulted in a loss of the Conservative party's absolute majority in Parliament. Even though she decided not to resign, she is vulnerable to challenges within her party at any time. This hung parliament heralds a period of political instability and significant uncertainty over the sequence of future events. It also opens up a wide range of outcomes for Brexit. Meanwhile, a minority government is unlikely to last its full five-year term, increasing the risk of another snap election.

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Dove profusion

  • Edition June 8, 2017

    There are too many questions, there is no 'one solution', there is no core inflation, there is growth celebration. And an ECB that has provided a profusion of dovish elements to make markets feel, to make markets know that, despite the fact that the wording of the forward guidance changed, the ECB will remain on the path of an accommodative stance for a prolonged period of time.

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France – Public Finance: The budgetary balances of the new presidency

  • Edition June 7, 2017

    Neither the details of the 2018 Finance Act nor the fiscal trajectory for 2018-2022 are as yet precisely known; they will be announced in October. But we can already set out their main outlines in light of Emmanuel Macron's election manifesto. Fiscal stimulus measures are expected to amount to 50 billion euros. To finance these and narrow the deficit, major cuts will be imposed, mainly in public spending, amounting to 70 billion euros. The deficit should be gradually narrowed to around 1% of GDP in 2022.

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