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Economics

UK: Heightened political uncertainty versus hopes for a softer Brexit

  • Edition June 16, 2017

    The 8 June snap election was a shock for Theresa May as it resulted in a loss of the Conservative party's absolute majority in Parliament. Even though she decided not to resign, she is vulnerable to challenges within her party at any time. This hung parliament heralds a period of political instability and significant uncertainty over the sequence of future events. It also opens up a wide range of outcomes for Brexit. Meanwhile, a minority government is unlikely to last its full five-year term, increasing the risk of another snap election.

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Dove profusion

  • Edition June 8, 2017

    There are too many questions, there is no 'one solution', there is no core inflation, there is growth celebration. And an ECB that has provided a profusion of dovish elements to make markets feel, to make markets know that, despite the fact that the wording of the forward guidance changed, the ECB will remain on the path of an accommodative stance for a prolonged period of time.

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France – Public Finance: The budgetary balances of the new presidency

  • Edition June 7, 2017

    Neither the details of the 2018 Finance Act nor the fiscal trajectory for 2018-2022 are as yet precisely known; they will be announced in October. But we can already set out their main outlines in light of Emmanuel Macron's election manifesto. Fiscal stimulus measures are expected to amount to 50 billion euros. To finance these and narrow the deficit, major cuts will be imposed, mainly in public spending, amounting to 70 billion euros. The deficit should be gradually narrowed to around 1% of GDP in 2022.

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Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition June 7, 2017

    Highlights: What changes are forecast for Turkey's current account balance? Which Middle East and North Africa countries are over-indebted? Côte d'Ivoire experiences mutiny episode 2. Heading for a slowdown in China. Inflation picking up in Mexico.

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United-Kingdom - The approaching snap election and what it means for Brexit

  • Edition June 2, 2017

    On 8 June the British people will go back to the polls for a snap general election. Our base-case scenario is that the Conservatives will extend their parliamentary majority, as suggested by the majority of polls. However, the slump in the Conservatives' lead in voting intentions over the past two weeks suggests that the election's result should not be taken as a foregone conclusion.

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France – Macroeconomic scenario 2017-2018 : A modest recovery but with signs of improvement

  • Edition May 23, 2017

    In 2016, over the full year, French growth came out at 1.1%, a pace very similar to that of 2015 (1.2%), and was therefore disappointing despite that much vaunted "alignment of the planets" (ie, the combination of a weak euro, record low interest rates, and cheap energy). We foresee an improvement in growth, to 1.3% in 2017 and to 1.4% in 2018. This scenario of modest recovery is in line with the recent business surveys.

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Italy – Political Issues – Renzi's comeback: to do what, when, and with whom?

  • Edition 16 May 2017

    Matteo Renzi has returned to frontline politics following his overwhelming victory in the Democratic Party (PD) primary. The relatively high turnout gave him sufficient legitimacy to go back on the campaign train for the upcoming partial local elections in June, and above all for the spring 2018 general election. The temptation to quickly spend his political capital by provoking the fall of the Gentiloni government and calling for an early general election in September 2017 is great.

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