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Industry and Services

World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: "And yet it moves"

  • Edition October 4, 2018

    There are plenty of genuine causes for concern. Some threats are still looming, and it is difficult – if not illusory – to assign a probability to them and give them tangible consistency; others have already taken shape. The global economy is proving quite resilient. Nevertheless, even before these threats have a tangible influence on the real economy, their effects are being felt in financial variables and expectations.

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World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: The end is not yet nigh

  • Edition July 10, 2018

    Despite tightening financial conditions in the US and a possible worsening of trade tensions, a cyclical downturn is not imminent. The heady days of simultaneous expansion are, however, now well and truly over. Growth is still running high in the US and remains vigorous in the Eurozone after a temporary loss of impetus, though it looks set to recede in the emerging economies – the first region to suffer from the killer combination of a rising dollar, rising US interest rates, and growing fears of protectionism.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

  • Edition April 4, 2018

    The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.

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World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2016-2017: A Brexit-inflected scenario

  • Edition July 13, 2016

    In the 23 June referendum, a majority of the UK electorate voted in favour of leaving the European Union. Close to 52% of voters opted for a Brexit in a very clear-cut result, especially as the participation rate was a high 72.2%. Apart from the UK, obviously, the economic damage to the rest of the world, at this stage, seems relatively absorbable. Persistent financial uncertainty and volatility are not, however, conducive to investment, which is a source of lasting growth. Conversely, the political fallout is enormous and multifarious. The vote shows us the sad spectacle of where political opportunism and recklessness can lead. It also teaches us that ‘it isn't conceivable because it would be catastrophic' is not a strong political argument.

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Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

  • Edition June 7, 2016

    Highlights: Kazakhstan is in recession for the first time since 2009. Hungary's sovereign rating is at long last back at investment grade. In Algeria, the depletion of the Revenue Regulation Fund has triggered a rise in public debt. Mozambique looks increasingly likely to default on its sovereign debt. April in China: keep your eye on the ball… The Termer government has political difficulties in Brazil.

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Brazilian industry: technological challenges and sustainable growth

  • Edition April 2011
    Brazil's economy returned to strong growth in 2010. How sustainable the growth in Brazilian industry? Government policy will play an even greater role in stimulating and directing investment in mining (including petroleum) and manufacturing than it plays in agriculture (see Eclairages Industriels, March 2011). Brazil is betting on technology to confirm its position as an industrial power.

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The Brazilian agri-food industry: contradictions, promises and opportunities

  • Edition March 2011
    Agriculture is a major strength of Brazil's booming economy. While vast land reserves and diverse ecosystems are key assets, Brazil's success is also nurtured by extensive public policies, combined with a distinctive form of economic liberalism. Sustainable development remains a challenge.

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