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We look back at the ECB's 10 March announcement, especially in connection with the TLTRO 2 operations and analyse their implications from the banks' viewpoint. This new programme should elicit more interest than TLTRO 1 and help to revive the transmission of monetary policy on lending interest rates. But this in no way guarantees its effectiveness in re-launching lending to businesses.
Household consumption, the traditional driving force behind French growth, has been growing at a far slower rate since 2011. Growth has been restricted by low incomes. A in-depth analysis of the determinants of household consumption should allow us to sketch mid-term private consumption trends. This paper also sets out to throw light on household consumption spending on passenger vehicles. Last, we offer a close-up look at consumer lending.
Fears of seeing the Eurozone sink into deflation, against a backdrop of the spectre of the Japanese example, have propelled inflation centre stage. France has not been spared the general price downtrend and inflation has fallen substantially in the recent period, with prices rising by just 0.3% in the 12 months to end-September. In this issue, we aim to examine the causes of this slowdown in prices, or rather the accumulation of factors that have led to the current severe disinflation.
France faces many difficulties, including a structural competitiveness deficit, high unemployment, and low corporate profitability. These limitations are likely to hamper France's post-crisis growth rebound. Yet the French economy has no shortage of good points above and beyond its well-known dynamic demographic.
The nascent recovery in France is not a strong rebound. Our growth potential has been adversely affected by the recent crisis, and in particular by its length, which has had an impact on human and physical capital and on productivity. We should not overestimate the impact, however, as some of the observed fluctuations are cyclical, with no effect on our potential. A number of measures have also been implemented to enhance the outlook for economic activity.
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