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Banking and Insurance

Italy – Economic environment : Under pressure

  • Edition 26 October 2018

    The impact of external risk factors materialised in the first half, leading to a more emphatic slowdown in the Italian economy than other European countries. Activity increased by 0.2% in the second quarter, hampered by the decline in foreign demand, albeit less pronounced than at the start of the year. Internal demand contributed positively to growth thanks to private investment, which should remain strong through end-2018.

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Italy – Economic climate: Economy still resilient in Q1 2018

  • Edition 9 July 2018

    Italian economic growth moderately slowed in Q1 2018, against a backdrop of a marked deceleration in the European cycle. That backdrop had an adverse effect on the contribution from foreign demand, but domestic demand was still robust. For banks, both asset quality and profitability improvement have continued to improve, but the new government has disrupted this more upbeat context.

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Italy – Political risk contained by growth and improvement in the banking sector

  • Edition 27 March 2018

    The new government has scant leeway for its first main task, the 2019 budget, owing to the multi-year fiscal trajectory negotiated with the European Commission that is ill-compatible with electoral promises. It is in this area, as well as in the continuation of the structural reforms introduced by the outgoing government, that the reliability of the new coalition will be judged by European partners, rating agencies and investors.

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Italy – Conjoncture: Please, do not hinder the virtuous circle

  • Edition January 18, 2018

    The consolidation of productive investment and a swifter decrease in unemployment feed into a more autonomous growth. This benefits the banking sector by sustaining restructuring efforts, more than ever dominated by a race to reduce NPLs. On the political front, the scenario of a post-election coalition between Forza Italia, the Centre and M. Renzi's democratic Party is loosing strength due to the latter's weakening.

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Eurozone – ECB: no silver bullet for lending

  • Edition 5 April 2016

    We look back at the ECB's 10 March announcement, especially in connection with the TLTRO 2 operations and analyse their implications from the banks' viewpoint. This new programme should elicit more interest than TLTRO 1 and help to revive the transmission of monetary policy on lending interest rates. But this in no way guarantees its effectiveness in re-launching lending to businesses.

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France: household consumption

  • Edition December 2014

    Household consumption, the traditional driving force behind French growth, has been growing at a far slower rate since 2011. Growth has been restricted by low incomes. A in-depth analysis of the determinants of household consumption should allow us to sketch mid-term private consumption trends. This paper also sets out to throw light on household consumption spending on passenger vehicles. Last, we offer a close-up look at consumer lending.

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France: Scant risk of a deflationary spiral

  • Edition October, 2014

    Fears of seeing the Eurozone sink into deflation, against a backdrop of the spectre of the Japanese example, have propelled inflation centre stage. France has not been spared the general price downtrend and inflation has fallen substantially in the recent period, with prices rising by just 0.3% in the 12 months to end-September. In this issue, we aim to examine the causes of this slowdown in prices, or rather the accumulation of factors that have led to the current severe disinflation.

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