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Real Estate

France – Real estate: recent developments and outlook for 2019

  • Edition February 15, 2019

    The housing market should remain upbeat in 2019. Demand should be sustained by low lending rates and structural support factors. The market should see neither a bubble nor a sudden collapse. Yet, after an outstanding year in 2017, the market should continue to slow down gently. Transactions should thus see a slight decline in 2019 (-4% over 12 months in pre-owned, -6% in new-build) and the rate of increase in prices should slow towards 2%.

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France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition October 31, 2018

    After an exceptional year in 2017, the housing market has again been sustained in 2018, but is not showing any signs of a bubble or overheating. On the contrary, signs of cooling have been growing, with a slight dip in sales of pre-owned homes, a more marked drop in sales of new-build homes, and a slowdown in prices and mortgage lending. In 2019, the market will continue to slow very gently, with a slight fall-off in transactions and a slowdown of housing prices.

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France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition August 1, 2018

    The French real-estate market experienced an exceptional year in 2017. The first signs of a cooling in the market have emerged since the start of the year. This contraction is set to continue in 2018-2019. Firstly, the gradual refocusing of the Pinel scheme and the PTZ on the most sought-after areas will reduce sales of new-build properties. Secondly, mortgage lending rates are set to increase slightly and the increase in house prices will reduce the households' purchasing power and encouraging buyers to take a more wait-and-see approach.

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France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition 14 May 2018

    The housing market saw a record year in 2017. We do not feel it likely that the market will overheat in 2018-2019. On the contrary, a slight dip is forecast. For one thing, the gradual refocusing of the Pinel buy-to-let scheme and the PTZ interest free housing loan on areas of housing shortages is forecast to cut new-build sales by 9% in 2018. Secondly, the gradual increase of lending rates combined with rising home prices will nibble away at households' ability to buy and make buyers more hesitant and wait-and-see.

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France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

  • Edition February 2, 2018

    The housing market saw a record year in 2017. The market is fairly unlikely to surge in 2018-2019. On the contrary, a slight dip in the market is forecast for two reasons. First, the refocusing of new-build support measures on areas where supply is tight. Second, an erosion in borrowers' ability to buy, with the slight increase in mortgage lending rates and a marked increase in the price of homes.

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France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018

  • Edition November 7, 2017

    The housing market grew at a sustained rate in 2017. The market is likely to see a slight slowdown in 2018-2019, however. First off, the new Housing Plan, unveiled in late September, is favourable over time via a supply-side shock, plus a four-year extension to the Pinel scheme and the PTZ interest-free loan. Second, the relative acceleration in prices and the continued slow increase in lending rates will eat into households' ability to purchase.

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France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2017-2018

  • Edition July 26, 2017

    The housing market was very active in 2016 and in the first half of 2017. The recovery is mainly linked to two factors: extremely low mortgage lending rates, which are now starting to edge up, boosting sales through a windfall effect; and the new-build stimulus plan with the Pinel scheme and the strengthening of the PTZ interest-free loan. Is this strength likely to persist, at a time when lending rates are timidly embarking on an uptrend? Two main scenarios seem possible, in our view.

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