Global economic scenario : GDP growth takes a breather

Wednesday 29 May 2012

The ECB, and its 1000 billion euros of 3 year loans, was able to reassure markets, as banks are now expected to be able to reduce their balance sheets in an orderly manner without further damaging growth. Our scenario takes into account this winding-down of the crisis. European growth will, nonetheless, be scarred by the crisis.

Winter is here, and we're still waiting

Wednesday 20 May 2012

After a challenging autumn, we are forecasting a winter recession in the Eurozone. Activity is expected to contract by -0.2% both in the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012. Although the risks to our scenario are skewed to the downside, our forecast is based on a smaller adjustment in activity than in 2009. Despite the current political dithering, the likelihood is that the authorities will end up by delivering a credible response in order to safeguard at all costs the integrity of the Eurozone.

Emerging powers: New economic partners for Africa?

Wednesday 11 May 2012

Emerging-market countries (especially China, India, Brazil, Turkey and S. Korea) are currently strengthening their economic activity in Africa. This new interest is transmitted by means of three channels: trade, direct investment and development assistance. For the African countries, the prospects created by this new partnership are ambiguous: alongside evident benefits, there are also new risks (see the publication : Eclairages Emergents, edition October 3, 2011).

Economic scenario autumn 2011

Wednesday 8 May 2012

On return from our summer holidays, we would like to take the opportunity to go over our updated economic & financial scenario. Economic growth has already been scarred this year by the Japanese earthquake, and the surge in oil prices due to the turmoil in the Middle East. The question now remains whether or not the shock to business confidence experienced this summer will throw economic growth off the edge.

A good start to Eurozone growth in 2011

Wednesday 13 May 2012

Euro zone GDP growth got off to a good start in 2011; with a much larger than anticipated boost in activity in both Germany & France.A rebound in GDP growth was widely anticipated after the weather-related poor performance in activity at the end of 2010. Eurostat's preliminary estimate showed that eurozone GDP grew +0.8% in the first quarter of 2011, compared to +0.3% in the last quarter of 2010.

Ireland : upcoming events, likely outcomes

Wednesday 14 May 2012

Ireland will be facing a general election on the 25th of February. Opinion polls point to a new coalition government, with Fine Gael, the main party, and the Labour party as the junior coalition. In contrast, the soon-to-be former government is set to suffer a substantial loss of seats, with its share of votes likely to fall to 14% from close to 50% at the last election in 2007. So how will this vast switch in majority affect the outcome for Ireland?