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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016

  • Edition April 1, 2015

    The recovery, which was restricted to the US and UK only a few months ago, is now definitely spreading to other countries. The growth upticks in the Eurozone and Japan differ from the cruising speed now achieved in the US. First off, they are far more modest. They are also more fragile, as they owe a great deal to the drop in oil prices. Another support factor, this time linked more to economic policies, is the relative strength of the US dollar.

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Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016

  • Edition December 2014

    The contrast is striking between the US economy, which currently seems able to generate self-sustaining growth, and the European and Japanese economies, which despite large-scale stimuli are still posting disappointing performance. In United States, it is undoubtedly private consumption which is mainly driving recovery. Housing and productive investment are also upbeat, while currently low energy prices are also giving an extra little boost.

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Divergence and dissonance

  • Edition September 2014

    The fact that things seem to be normalising in the US is not just a piece of luck. It is very probably the consequence of a series of past initiatives that have begun to bear fruit. Elsewhere, the sense of clarity is definitely poorer. In Europe, and especially within the Eurozone, the situation remains confused and prospects are bleak.

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Doubts

  • Edition June, 2014
    Q1 14 was disappointing. A few economies saw higher-than-forecast growth, while others. This is because there are still persistent doubts about the scale of the rebound. Central banks are also asking the same questions. In view of all this, it is not surprising that the fixed income and currency markets should be hesitant. Of course interest rates will rise, but by how much and when are the questions still open to debate.

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