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Macro Prospects
A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.
Pascal's wager
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Macro Prospects - Edition March 2013
The US equities market recently hit the highs it has achieved twice in recent years – in 2000 and in 2007. Could this hold an important message about the normalisation of the economic and financial situation? Before attempting a response, the outlook should be broadened. To the other markets in the first place. Bond yields remain very low, largely due to central bank activism.
You never bathe in the same river twice
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Macro Prospects - Edition December 2012
The markets are sounding more optimistic. On the one hand they are attaching meaning to a series of economic numbers, above all coming out of Europe and China, suggesting a certain revival on the confidence front, and even on that of growth. They are also looking at the economic scenarios for 2013 and note an uptick in growth - a measured one, of course - in the second part of the year.
The more likely fluctuat nec mergitur scenario
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Macro Prospects - Edition September 2012
The clear commitment by the ECB to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro has been received by markets as a reduction of tail risk. Participants consider that the probability of a Eurozone blowout (if it can really be measured) has declined significantly. At the same time, the Fed has decided to launch a new and open-ended QE initiative. Lower volatility and more risk appetite have been the unsurprising reactions to these positive developments.
Political will and the ability to lead
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Macro Prospects - Macro Prospects - Edition June 2012
In the West, politicians are finding it difficult to stabilise the economic and financial situation. Currently, the situation in Greece and Spain is attracting the attention of markets. It could be the turn of the US in the next few months with the "fiscal cliff" at the end of the year (programmes slated to expire at year-end would trim the federal deficit by about 5% of GDP) moving back into focus as the November elections draw closer.
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