Welcome to the web site of Economic Research
A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.
One shouldn't always extrapolate from the recent past. Markets and economists seem to agree that the disappointment early this year regarding the improvement in global economic conditions will be short-lived. The "managing of expectations" by central banks is proving more complicated than expected. Geopolitical risk is higher. There is still no sign of volatility disappearing from the markets!
Any satisfaction to be derived from the conviction that global growth conditions are set to normalise in 2014 can only be relative… initial estimates for 2015 point to an economy struggling to gain traction. And markets are unable to let go of the idea that monetary policies will remain ‘reflationist'.
The market will be channelling several trends over the coming months and we need to try and understand what the overall trend will look like. In the growth arena, an upside trend can be seen in each of the world economy's four largest regions. But visibility on the growth rates to be achieved over the coming quarters is poor. The first factor raises hopes that a virtuous circle will develop, each region driving the others on.
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