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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016

  • Edition December 2014

    The contrast is striking between the US economy, which currently seems able to generate self-sustaining growth, and the European and Japanese economies, which despite large-scale stimuli are still posting disappointing performance. In United States, it is undoubtedly private consumption which is mainly driving recovery. Housing and productive investment are also upbeat, while currently low energy prices are also giving an extra little boost.


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Divergence and dissonance

  • Edition September 2014

    The fact that things seem to be normalising in the US is not just a piece of luck. It is very probably the consequence of a series of past initiatives that have begun to bear fruit. Elsewhere, the sense of clarity is definitely poorer. In Europe, and especially within the Eurozone, the situation remains confused and prospects are bleak.


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  • Edition June, 2014
    Q1 14 was disappointing. A few economies saw higher-than-forecast growth, while others. This is because there are still persistent doubts about the scale of the rebound. Central banks are also asking the same questions. In view of all this, it is not surprising that the fixed income and currency markets should be hesitant. Of course interest rates will rise, but by how much and when are the questions still open to debate.


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Get to the nitty gritty, but without losing sight of the rest!

  • Edition March 2014

    One shouldn't always extrapolate from the recent past. Markets and economists seem to agree that the disappointment early this year regarding the improvement in global economic conditions will be short-lived. The "managing of expectations" by central banks is proving more complicated than expected. Geopolitical risk is higher. There is still no sign of volatility disappearing from the markets!


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