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A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.
The markets are sounding more optimistic. On the one hand they are attaching meaning to a series of economic numbers, above all coming out of Europe and China, suggesting a certain revival on the confidence front, and even on that of growth. They are also looking at the economic scenarios for 2013 and note an uptick in growth - a measured one, of course - in the second part of the year.
The clear commitment by the ECB to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro has been received by markets as a reduction of tail risk. Participants consider that the probability of a Eurozone blowout (if it can really be measured) has declined significantly. At the same time, the Fed has decided to launch a new and open-ended QE initiative. Lower volatility and more risk appetite have been the unsurprising reactions to these positive developments.
In the West, politicians are finding it difficult to stabilise the economic and financial situation. Currently, the situation in Greece and Spain is attracting the attention of markets. It could be the turn of the US in the next few months with the "fiscal cliff" at the end of the year (programmes slated to expire at year-end would trim the federal deficit by about 5% of GDP) moving back into focus as the November elections draw closer.
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