Eclairages Emergents

South East Asia: what are the risks in 2013?

• Éclairages Émergents – Edition April 15, 2013

  Whether down a little in the ASEAN-4 countries or a tad higher in Vietnam, growth in all five countries should again be buoyant in 2013, fuelled by consumption and investment.

  What's more, the short-term risks are acceptable overall. There are a number of concerns, however, as regards recent lending trends, short-term foreign debt, Vietnam and its banking systems, the political environment in Thailand, and governance.

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Mexico: achieving the country's potential

• Eclairages Emergents - Edition February 5, 2013
  Something's changed in Mexico. Despite persistent structural problems weighing on growth —rigidities, inequality, violence, and the absence of State authority—improved industrial performance over the past two years despite the challenging international economic environment has restored momentum that many observers had come to doubt.

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BRICs weathering the storm

• Eclairages Emergents - Edition December 5, 2012
  Like the developed countries and most emerging-market nations, the BRICs are currently undergoing a slowdown phase. The slowdown is obviously linked to the state of the global economy, but more specific factors are also at work: the diminishing scope for the "extensive growth" model, public finance constraints, unresolved social problems, institutional weaknesses...

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China edging towards greater constraints on growth

• Éclairages Émergents - Edition November 2012
  Forecast to come in at 7.7%, China's 2012 GDP growth looks set to see its worst performance in thirteen years. The coming months should see an improvement. But the slowdown observed in recent months seems to be as much due to structural as to cyclical factors. That is because China's growth model is coming under pressure. The pragmatism of the Chinese leadership and the profile of the new General Secretary, Xi Jinping, offer sufficient cause to believe that Beijing will be able to steer change. But the task looks like being complicated. However, China should continue catching up with the industrialised economies.

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Latin America: the changing nature of political risk

• Éclairages Émergents - Edition July 2012
  Democracy is now firmly rooted in Latin America. Yet political risk (in the sense of a radical challenge to economic policy) remains present in many countries. The environment is conducive to political risk. Materialization of political risk could be triggered by a global crisis and its impact on the region, or by economic policy failures in certain countries. But stabilizing factors exist.

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