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Eclairages Emergents

Eclairages Emergents is an aperiodic publication offering a series of articles addressing emerging economies or an emerging region from a variety of angles.

Latin America in 2014: the return of the external constraint

  • Éclairages Émergents – Edition October, 2014

    Latin America has experienced high growth over the past decade, with average GDP growth rates of 4.1% between 2003 and 2013. Yet for a number of years, Latin America's economies have been slowing. External demand and commodity prices are providing less support, and the region's GDP growth will hardly exceed 1% this year. The external constraint is again weighing on the region's economic performance, but domestic factors also underlie the slowdown.

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South Korea: Further challenges to address

  • Eclairages Emergents - Edition July 2014
    South Korea is gradually returning to its potential growth path. Appropriate economic policy and efficient export-driven industries have helped surmount the 2009 crisis with far fewer problems than in 1997. Demand from emerging market countries and ASEAN has boosted the economy in recent years; Korea should now benefit from the recovery in the United States and Europe, and especially from increased trade with China.

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Progress report on Mexico's reforms - what's done, what remains to be done

  • Éclairages Émergents - Edition May, 2014
    Mexico is unmistakably attractive, in terms of size and because the president elected in 2012, Enrique Peña Nieto, began his term with the most sweeping reforms in two decades, which could raise the country's potential growth. The President's initiatives are extremely important and exceed expectations. Mexico's economy can grow faster than the mediocre 2.1 percent annual rate posted since 2000. We believe it will be very difficult to go further.

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Sub-Saharan Africa 2013: What developments can we expect?

  • Éclairages Émergents – Edition October 2013

    Sub-Saharan Africa's economies have enjoyed strong growth in recent years, with average annual GDP growth of 4.8% since 2007. The countries form the world's second fastest growing region, after South East Asia. Perceptions have changed between 2000, when Africa was considered "the hopeless continent" synonymous with war, famine and AIDS, and today's view of a "Rising Africa" capable of being a future driver of global growth — with rising domestic consumption, foreign direct investment (FDI), and stronger democracies.

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Latin America in 2013

  • Éclairages Émergents - Edition August 2013
    Latin America has averaged 4% annual GDP growth since 2003.The current pace is sustainable through the end of the decade. The Andean countries can continue at 4.5% to 5.5%; Argentina and Venezuela have the resources to sustain high growth after what will be a painful adjustment; and Mexico should rebound. The biggest question mark is Brazil, which could just as easily reach cruising speed at 5% or fade to 1.5%-2% a year.

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