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Eclairages Emergents

Eclairages Emergents is an aperiodic publication offering a series of articles addressing emerging economies or an emerging region from a variety of angles.

China: What if growth slows to 5%?

  • Edition January 30, 2015

    China is slowing not only as a result of Beijing's intention to move towards a new growth model, but also because of production overcapacity and overleveraging. This makes short-term management of the economy tricky. It is not impossible that growth could slow to 5%, either in 2015 or gradually over the next three years. In either case, there would be consequences for the rest the global economy, though presumably nothing comparable to the 2009 crisis.


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Latin America in 2014: the return of the external constraint

  • Edition October, 2014

    Latin America has experienced high growth over the past decade, with average GDP growth rates of 4.1% between 2003 and 2013. Yet for a number of years, Latin America's economies have been slowing. External demand and commodity prices are providing less support, and the region's GDP growth will hardly exceed 1% this year. The external constraint is again weighing on the region's economic performance, but domestic factors also underlie the slowdown.


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South Korea: Further challenges to address

  • Eclairages Emergents - Edition July 2014
    South Korea is gradually returning to its potential growth path. Appropriate economic policy and efficient export-driven industries have helped surmount the 2009 crisis with far fewer problems than in 1997. Demand from emerging market countries and ASEAN has boosted the economy in recent years; Korea should now benefit from the recovery in the United States and Europe, and especially from increased trade with China.


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Progress report on Mexico's reforms - what's done, what remains to be done

  • Éclairages Émergents - Edition May, 2014
    Mexico is unmistakably attractive, in terms of size and because the president elected in 2012, Enrique Peña Nieto, began his term with the most sweeping reforms in two decades, which could raise the country's potential growth. The President's initiatives are extremely important and exceed expectations. Mexico's economy can grow faster than the mediocre 2.1 percent annual rate posted since 2000. We believe it will be very difficult to go further.


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Sub-Saharan Africa 2013: What developments can we expect?

  • Edition October 2013

    Sub-Saharan Africa's economies have enjoyed strong growth in recent years, with average annual GDP growth of 4.8% since 2007. The countries form the world's second fastest growing region, after South East Asia. Perceptions have changed between 2000, when Africa was considered "the hopeless continent" synonymous with war, famine and AIDS, and today's view of a "Rising Africa" capable of being a future driver of global growth — with rising domestic consumption, foreign direct investment (FDI), and stronger democracies.


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