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Eclairages Emergents is an aperiodic publication offering a series of articles addressing emerging economies or an emerging region from a variety of angles.
China is slowing not only as a result of Beijing's intention to move towards a new growth model, but also because of production overcapacity and overleveraging. This makes short-term management of the economy tricky. It is not impossible that growth could slow to 5%, either in 2015 or gradually over the next three years. In either case, there would be consequences for the rest the global economy, though presumably nothing comparable to the 2009 crisis.
Latin America has experienced high growth over the past decade, with average GDP growth rates of 4.1% between 2003 and 2013. Yet for a number of years, Latin America's economies have been slowing. External demand and commodity prices are providing less support, and the region's GDP growth will hardly exceed 1% this year. The external constraint is again weighing on the region's economic performance, but domestic factors also underlie the slowdown.
Sub-Saharan Africa's economies have enjoyed strong growth in recent years, with average annual GDP growth of 4.8% since 2007. The countries form the world's second fastest growing region, after South East Asia. Perceptions have changed between 2000, when Africa was considered "the hopeless continent" synonymous with war, famine and AIDS, and today's view of a "Rising Africa" capable of being a future driver of global growth — with rising domestic consumption, foreign direct investment (FDI), and stronger democracies.
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