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Perspectives


Emerging Countries Prospects

Monthly – A round-up of economic affairs in emerging economies with commentaries.

  • Edition April 10, 2018 Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest
    Highlights: Slovenia is the good student of the European Union. Despite weakening, the Qatar economy is proving fairly resilient to the embargo. The IMF welcomes Nigeria's emergence from recession but warns about an economy that is still convalescent. China has a new vice Prime Minister. As a sign, among other things, of culpable interference between the Argentinian state and the Central Bank, inflation is picking up.

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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

  • Edition April 4, 2018 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good
    The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.

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Forecasts Prospects

Aperiodic publication - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts.

  • Edition April 4, 2018 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts
    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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French Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the French macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition January 17, 2018 France – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017
    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, French growth was close to 1%. Growth accelerated sharply in 2017 and is expected to come out at 1.9%. We expect growth to continue at a robust pace in 2018 and 2019, at 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, but without accelerating on 2017.

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Italy Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the Italian macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition 27 March 2018 Italy – Political risk contained by growth and improvement in the banking sector
    The new government has scant leeway for its first main task, the 2019 budget, owing to the multi-year fiscal trajectory negotiated with the European Commission that is ill-compatible with electoral promises. It is in this area, as well as in the continuation of the structural reforms introduced by the outgoing government, that the reliability of the new coalition will be judged by European partners, rating agencies and investors.

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