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Perspectives


Emerging Countries Prospects

Monthly – A round-up of economic affairs in emerging economies with commentaries.

  • Edition June 7, 2017 Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest
    Highlights: What changes are forecast for Turkey's current account balance? Which Middle East and North Africa countries are over-indebted? Côte d'Ivoire experiences mutiny episode 2. Heading for a slowdown in China. Inflation picking up in Mexico.

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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

  • Edition April 3, 2017 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Aligning timescales
    Politics is a long game, the financial markets an extremely short one. The economy could be said to be somewhere in between. It is necessary to reconcile the durations of those three games to compose an economic and financial scenario that does not bring too much dissonance. In such a scenario the cycle will prosper, and even strengthen, provided that political risks do not materialise due to a draconian tightening of financial conditions.

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Forecasts Prospects

Aperiodic publication - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts.

  • Edition March 31, 2017 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts
    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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French Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the French macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition June 7, 2017 France – Public Finance: The budgetary balances of the new presidency
    Neither the details of the 2018 Finance Act nor the fiscal trajectory for 2018-2022 are as yet precisely known; they will be announced in October. But we can already set out their main outlines in light of Emmanuel Macron's election manifesto. Fiscal stimulus measures are expected to amount to 50 billion euros. To finance these and narrow the deficit, major cuts will be imposed, mainly in public spending, amounting to 70 billion euros. The deficit should be gradually narrowed to around 1% of GDP in 2022.

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Italy Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the Italian macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition 16 May 2017 Italy – Political Issues – Renzi's comeback: to do what, when, and with whom?
    Matteo Renzi has returned to frontline politics following his overwhelming victory in the Democratic Party (PD) primary. The relatively high turnout gave him sufficient legitimacy to go back on the campaign train for the upcoming partial local elections in June, and above all for the spring 2018 general election. The temptation to quickly spend his political capital by provoking the fall of the Gentiloni government and calling for an early general election in September 2017 is great.

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