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Perspectives


Emerging Countries Prospects

Monthly – A round-up of economic affairs in emerging economies with commentaries.

  • Edition February 19, 2018 Political issues – Populisms: The trap closes in the Czech Republic
    How to explain the shift to populism in Central Europe? And how to explain that it is being implemented by the same political agents who contributed to establishing democratic regimes after the Iron Curtain came down? The recent re-election of the populist candidate Miloš Zeman to the Czech presidency is causing ripples well beyond his own country because it highlights a phenomenon that concerns Central Europe as a whole.

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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

  • Edition December 21, 2017 World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Cruel Imagination...
    Even as we anxiously scan the horizon for harbingers of a downturn, the cycle continues to amaze us with its quiet power and its general propagation. To identify some of the essential ingredients of the current cycle, we should look to the great financial crisis of 2008. The depth of the crisis explains why it is taking so long for the scars to heal and why the real imbalances have yet to manifest themselves, especially in the shape of inflation. The upward cycle is therefore likely to continue for a few quarters yet. Monetary policies, which are accommodative despite actual or planned tightening, are underpinning growth. The resorption of public imbalances is made easier by low interest rates, and we see no reason why they should rise suddenly.

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Forecasts Prospects

Aperiodic publication - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts.

  • Edition December 20, 2017 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts
    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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French Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the French macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition January 17, 2018 France – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017
    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, French growth was close to 1%. Growth accelerated sharply in 2017 and is expected to come out at 1.9%. We expect growth to continue at a robust pace in 2018 and 2019, at 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, but without accelerating on 2017.

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Italy Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the Italian macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition January 18, 2018 Italy – Conjoncture: Please, do not hinder the virtuous circle
    The consolidation of productive investment and a swifter decrease in unemployment feed into a more autonomous growth. This benefits the banking sector by sustaining restructuring efforts, more than ever dominated by a race to reduce NPLs. On the political front, the scenario of a post-election coalition between Forza Italia, the Centre and M. Renzi's democratic Party is loosing strength due to the latter's weakening. 

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