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Perspectives


Emerging Countries Prospects

Monthly – A round-up of economic affairs in emerging economies with commentaries.

  • Edition August 1, 2017 Saudi Arabia – The rentier model in an era of reform and regional crisis
    The lasting drop in the oil price to around 50 dollars a barrel is undermining the deeply rentier Saudi economy, which derives 90% of its tax receipts. A huge long-term structural reform plan ("Vision 2030") is ongoing to wean the country off its rentier economy. It is extremely ambitious, especially in its social components, where the challenges are greatest. However, the political and geopolitical environment is a source of growing concern.

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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

  • Edition July 3, 2017 World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Pleasant surprises of a slow-burn cycle
    The slow-burn cycle is currently delivering some pleasant surprises. There are no signs on the horizon of the excesses typical of a premature and often sudden end to a cycle. In particular, we are desperately seeking inflation. As a result, a ‘harmonious' economic scenario where monetary support mechanisms will only gradually be withdrawn is developing – this is a reasonably optimistic scenario where financial conditions are not brutally tightening. It would be easy to draw up a dark economic scenario, where every latent risk raises its head, and predict the end of the world as we know it. But we will refrain from that and posit a reasonably optimistic scenario.

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Forecasts Prospects

Aperiodic publication - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts.

  • Edition June 30, 2017 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts
    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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French Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the French macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition July 12, 2017 France – Corporate debt ratios : should we be worried?
    The debt ratio of non-financial companies (NFCs), defined as the ratio of debt (Credits and debt securities) to value-added, has grown significantly since 2006 to reach a rec-ord high of close to 135% at the beginning of 2017. At first sight, this development seems worrying. Nevertheless, other measures, such as net debt ratio or the debt-to-equity ratio (ratios linked to corporate accounting) provide a more reassuring image.

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Italy Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the Italian macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition 16 May 2017 Italy – Political Issues – Renzi's comeback: to do what, when, and with whom?
    Matteo Renzi has returned to frontline politics following his overwhelming victory in the Democratic Party (PD) primary. The relatively high turnout gave him sufficient legitimacy to go back on the campaign train for the upcoming partial local elections in June, and above all for the spring 2018 general election. The temptation to quickly spend his political capital by provoking the fall of the Gentiloni government and calling for an early general election in September 2017 is great.

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