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Perspectives


Emerging Countries Prospects

Monthly – A round-up of economic affairs in emerging economies with commentaries.

  • Edition February 2, 2016 Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest
    Highlights: Kazakhstan, Central Asia and China form the New Silk Road. What does it mean when an oil-producing country (Azerbaijan) negotiates IMF aid? In the Middle East, unemployment is relatively stable, but the social risk is high in the longer term. Nigeria holds down its exchange rate but the naira surges on the local market. No big surprises in China! Brazil has no plans to hike its key rate for the time being.

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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

  • Edition December 18, 2015 World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2016-2017: A fragmented, anxious world
    Our scenario is not exaggeratedly pessimistic – it is just realistic. It observes a new world, one that is politically chaotic and geopolitically worrying. There is no powerful global locomotive able to pull the carriages on which the last few passengers can finally embark. One aggravating factor is that the monetary fireman has been abandoned by his fiscal colleague and is desperately alone in his cab.

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Forecasts Prospects

Aperiodic publication - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts.

  • Edition December 18, 2015 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016: Economic and financial forecasts
    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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French Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the French macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition January 11, 2016 France - Macro-economic scenario for 2016-2017: Slow recovery emerging
    Our Q4 2015 growth forecast has been revised down to 0.2% q/q. In 2016-2017, the recovery in activity will be mainly stimulated by external factors and by specific economic policy measures. Growth should, however, be held back by structural factors and the slowdown in emerging countries. Consumption will continue as the main growth driver. Despite the relatively upbeat environment, the recovery should, therefore, remain sluggish.

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Italy Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the Italian macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition July, 2013 Trying to save time is a waste of time
    Playing for time while waiting for an improvement in the European economic situation risks miring the Italian economy in recession. Seeking to capitalise on the stability of the financial markets and fiscal consolidation in hopes of achieving some slight room for manoeuvre will not be enough, either. What is really needed are speedy measures to improve the financial situation of Italy's SMEs, even if it takes means other than traditional bank credit to do so.

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