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Perspectives


Emerging Countries Prospects

Monthly – A round-up of economic affairs in emerging economies with commentaries.

  • Edition July 26, 2016 Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest
    Highlights: What is Hungary's strategy towards the EU? Central Asia is a region to watch, politically. In Egypt, we are seeing high inflation and further downside pressure on the Pound. The Nigerian Naira is now floating… and lost more than half of its value inside a week. Emerging Asia has responded negatively to Brexit. In Brazil, inflation... and the Central Bank are both resilient.

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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

  • Edition July 13, 2016 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2016-2017: A Brexit-inflected scenario
    In the 23 June referendum, a majority of the UK electorate voted in favour of leaving the European Union. Close to 52% of voters opted for a Brexit in a very clear-cut result, especially as the participation rate was a high 72.2%. Apart from the UK, obviously, the economic damage to the rest of the world, at this stage, seems relatively absorbable. Persistent financial uncertainty and volatility are not, however, conducive to investment, which is a source of lasting growth. Conversely, the political fallout is enormous and multifarious. The vote shows us the sad spectacle of where political opportunism and recklessness can lead. It also teaches us that ‘it isn't conceivable because it would be catastrophic' is not a strong political argument.

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Forecasts Prospects

Aperiodic publication - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts.

  • Edition July 12, 2016 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016: Economic and financial forecasts
    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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French Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the French macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition July 28, 2016 France - Effects of recent reforms to help businesses
    The measures to help businesses are now almost fully in place. As a result of those measures, the financial situation of businesses markedly improved in 2015, with a significant increase in profits and margins. The improvement is also due to other factors such as low interest rates, which reduce interest charges, and the lower oil price, which cuts the cost of intermediate consumption. However, uncertainties and the limits inherent in the measures persist.

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Italy Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the Italian macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition July, 2013 Trying to save time is a waste of time
    Playing for time while waiting for an improvement in the European economic situation risks miring the Italian economy in recession. Seeking to capitalise on the stability of the financial markets and fiscal consolidation in hopes of achieving some slight room for manoeuvre will not be enough, either. What is really needed are speedy measures to improve the financial situation of Italy's SMEs, even if it takes means other than traditional bank credit to do so.

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