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Perspectives


Emerging Countries Prospects

Monthly – A round-up of economic affairs in emerging economies with commentaries.

  • Edition December 13, 2017 Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest
    Highlights: In Romania, overheating could signal a cyclical downturn. In Russia, the latest growth statistics show a dip. GDP growth is picking up in Nigeria. Growth is firming up In India. In Chile, the first round of the presidential election saw the investors' favourite poll a disappointing score.

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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

  • Edition October 4, 2017 World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Inflation, the long absence
    We had despaired of ever seeing investment pick up and jobs being created, and then of seeing wages gain traction. These classic ingredients of a burgeoning cycle are now in place, even if to differing degrees from one economy to another. On the other hand, there is no sign of the sort of inflation one would expect to see at this point in the cycle. What should we be making of such a long absence? That it reflects structural changes in price formation and also that it makes the oversight of central banks and inflation-targeting far more complex.

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Forecasts Prospects

Aperiodic publication - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts.

  • Edition October 4, 2017 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts
    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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French Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the French macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition 24 October 2017 France – 2017-2018 Scenario: The economic improvement confirmed
    In 2016, for the third consecutive year, French growth came in at around 1% (1.1% in 2016). In 2017 and 2018, we are expecting to see an acceleration, with real GDP growth of respectively 1.7% and 1.6%. Tangible signs of an economic improvement have been perceptible for several months. The domestic drivers of recovery are more dynamic than we initially forecast. A self-sustaining growth cycle seems to be settling in.

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Italy Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the Italian macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition 16 May 2017 Italy – Political Issues – Renzi's comeback: to do what, when, and with whom?
    Matteo Renzi has returned to frontline politics following his overwhelming victory in the Democratic Party (PD) primary. The relatively high turnout gave him sufficient legitimacy to go back on the campaign train for the upcoming partial local elections in June, and above all for the spring 2018 general election. The temptation to quickly spend his political capital by provoking the fall of the Gentiloni government and calling for an early general election in September 2017 is great.

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