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Perspectives


Emerging Countries Prospects

Monthly – A round-up of economic affairs in emerging economies with commentaries.

  • Edition May 29, 2018 Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest
    Highlights: What is to be done with the Balkans, Europe's enfants terribles? Is there a risk of a hard landing in Turkey? Saudi Arabia's authorities are concerned by the sharp rise in unemployment. Moody's has downgraded Angola's sovereign debt rating by a notch. In India, victory leaves a bitter taste. Argentina is playing an old, hopeless and costly game.

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Macro Prospects

A quarterly publication setting out the Crédit Agricole scenario for the economy, interest rates and currencies in the main economic regions, ie, the Americas, Europe and Asia.

  • Edition April 4, 2018 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good
    The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.

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Forecasts Prospects

Aperiodic publication - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts.

  • Edition April 4, 2018 World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts
    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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French Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the French macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition May 2, 2018 France – 2018-2019 scenario: Robust growth in 2018-2019 despite increased recruitment difficulties
    Q1 GDP showed slowing growth. This was expected and was justified by one-off factors; this does not suggest, however, that the French economy has begun a cyclical downswing. Over 2018 as a whole, the pace of growth is forecast to remain robust. France is experiencing increased recruitment difficulties that reveal a level of activity that it now nearing its potential, and a problem of labour suitability.

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Italy Macro Prospects

A quarterly analysis of the Italian macro-economic environment, with forecasts out to two years.

  • Edition 27 March 2018 Italy – Political risk contained by growth and improvement in the banking sector
    The new government has scant leeway for its first main task, the 2019 budget, owing to the multi-year fiscal trajectory negotiated with the European Commission that is ill-compatible with electoral promises. It is in this area, as well as in the continuation of the structural reforms introduced by the outgoing government, that the reliability of the new coalition will be judged by European partners, rating agencies and investors.

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