Emerging economies in 2020: a New World?

By 2020, the emerging economies will account for around 50% of the world economy. By then, two-thirds of global GDP growth will be generated in those countries. At that point, the world will be a different place: China's GDP will be greater than that of the EU and will be biting at the heels of the US. However, apart from a few exceptions, per capita incomes in emerging countries will still be significantly lower than those of the "developed" countries.

Greece vs. Argentina: looks can be deceiving

Since the beginning of the Greek crisis in late 2009, it has become increasingly common to compare Greece today with Argentina's situation ten years ago. Given Argentina's post-crisis economic recovery, some go as far as to predict, or even recommend, that Greeks opt for an identical shock therapy by exiting from the euro zone, reintroducing a severely devalued national currency and going into a unilateral default. Nevertheless, comparisons are often misleading. We see several major differences that make the Greek situation unique and that require extreme caution when considering the best remedy to be used to end the crisis.

Brazilian industry: technological challenges and sustainable growth

Brazil's economy returned to strong growth in 2010. How sustainable the growth in Brazilian industry? Government policy will play an even greater role in stimulating and directing investment in mining (including petroleum) and manufacturing than it plays in agriculture (see Eclairages Industriels, March 2011). Brazil is betting on technology to confirm its position as an industrial power.