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The reforms in the 2000s warded off the risk of a severe deterioration in the pension systems deficit. The financial balance, which is currently close to equilibrium, is likely to remain so in the short term. It is felt to be positive in favourable scenarios, but would again go into deficit, by 1-1.5% of GDP a year from 2030 in the more cautious scenarios. A new pensions reform has been announced whose prime objective is to roll out a universal regime that would be clearer and fairer. It would still be a pay-as-you-go system but would shift completely to a points-based regime.
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