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The housing market is adjusting differently in the new build and pre-owned sectors. In the pre-owned sector, unit sales totalled 740,000 in Q1 2014 (12-month total). This was a high level, and only 9% down on the 2007 peak. Prices were only slightly down, by 1.4% over 12 months in Q1 2014. In new-build, there has been a significant correction, -44% for individual homes (non-developer). How does one explain this two-speed market?
The rise of intermediate-sized enterprises (Entreprises de Taille Intermédiaire – ISEs) is often seen to be spearheading France's industrial re-conquest. Such companies, which combine the benefits both of SMEs and large corporations, have been able to develop, expand into foreign markets, and increase their activity. The French ecosystem must nevertheless continue to adapt in order to support this class of firm and foster the emergence of national champions.
Although 2014 fresh tomato campaign has had the chance to start early, geopolitical factors are actually threatening it. Russian market, essential to the stability of the European market, is being sensitive to Ukrainian tensions. As to processed tomato, attention is towards China. But its export growth seems to be limited by growing domestic needs and choices of harvest.
The ECB sounds confident that the June package will work its way towards bank lending and the real economy, helping to bring inflation back to levels consistent with price stability over the medium term. Consistent with this objective, the TLTROs' conditions look very generous, allowing deleveraging banks in particular to borrow extra cash at the ECB from 2015 onwards.
This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.
ECO Real Estate – Edition July 2014
France: Housing starts and building permits
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