Kiosque économique

  • Edition April 27, 2015

    South East Asia - Comfort zone?

    Think of South East Asia and you immediately think sustained growth rates (often in excess of 5%) and see one of the world's most dynamic regions. Things should be hardly different in 2015, with the sole exception of Thailand, which is struggling to recover from last year's political upheavals. The news is not all good, however. There are areas of weakness, either common to all economies or specific to each.

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  • Edition April 23, 2015

    France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2015-2016

    The correction on the French housing market continued through 2014. It was a measured correction in the pre-owned sector, and more pronounced in new-build. In 2015-2016, the factors operating will be more or less the same, with two possible differences in that mortgage lending rates could stop falling and stabilise, while the support measures for new-build housing could drive a slight recovery in the sector. Volumes look set to ease back in the pre-owned sector, and prices are forecast to fall by 2.5% per year, while developer new-build sales could rebound by 5% a year.

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  • Edition April 21, 2015

    United-Kingdom - 2015 general election preview

    The UK general election on May 7th is expected to result in another hung parliament: neither the centre-left Labour Party nor the centre-right Conservative Party is likely to win an outright majority in the House of Commons. The Conservatives are marginally ahead in the projections of seats, although the first-past-the-post system favours Labour. Forming a coalition is unlikely to be easy and might require more than two parties in order to get a majority in the 650-seat Parliament.

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  • Edition April 15, 2015

    ECB: No shortage of optimism

    Today Mario Draghi reaffirmed the ECB's strong commitment to asset purchases until the Governing Council sees "a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation". While the tone of the statement was marginally more positive ("risks have become more balanced"), the renewed focus on inflation "trends", ignoring one-offs and temporary deviations, suggest that the ECB will refrain from major policy changes for now.

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  • Edition 14 April 2015

    ECB: Bank Lending Surge

    The ECB's Bank Lending Survey for Q1 2015 was consistent with a further improvement in the Eurozone credit cycle, including a better transmission of monetary policy transmission to SMEs. The missing link to a sustainable recovery remains investment which contributed negatively to loan demand, with the exception of Spain. The ECB will need to see stronger hard data before it turns more confident about investment prospects.

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  • Edition 13 April 2015

    ECB preview: steady hand

    We expect the ECB to show a steady hand in QE implementation at its regular policy meeting on Wednesday, playing down speculation regarding an early tapering of asset purchases. The Governing Council should also reaffirm that -0.20% is the “effective lower bound” for the deposit rate, as stated in the March accounts.

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  • Edition April 1, 2015

    Emerging Countries - Monthly News Digest

    Highlights: In Poland, the outlook for 2015 is favourable. Caught between sabre rattling and debt negotiations, Ukraine is approaching a crucial period... In South Africa, the rand's depreciation is starting to play its role as a shock absorber for the external accounts. In China, real estate prices continue to fall. In Colombia, the oil price counter-shock is under control.

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Edition April 27, 2015

South East Asia: Governance*

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