• Headline

    Divergence and dissonance

    Edition September 2014

    The fact that things seem to be normalising in the US is not just a piece of luck. It is very probably the consequence of a series of past initiatives that have begun to bear fruit. Elsewhere, the sen ...

  • Video New

    Divergences

    30.09.2014

    As depicted by a recent comparative study performed by PEW Research, the French are the more pessimistic on the economic outlook of their country than the Italians and are at the same level as the Gre ...

  • Graphic Focus

    UK: Ratio of real estate prices to household incomes

    ECO Focus - Edition 1st September 2014

    Unsurprisingly, a region-by-region analysis shows that the greatest deterioration in the ratio of house prices to income is to be found in London and the South East, which are also the regions that ha ...

  • CREDIT AGRICOLE CIB

    Discover the economic research of Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank

    22.07.2013

    In collaboration with Crédit Agricole S.A.'s Economic Research Department, Crédit Agricole CIB develops its own axes of research: Global Markets Research, which covers underlying macroeconomic asset ...

Kiosque économique

  • Forecasts Prospects - September 2014

    Economic and financial forecasts

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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  • Edition September 2014

    Divergence and dissonance

    The fact that things seem to be normalising in the US is not just a piece of luck. It is very probably the consequence of a series of past initiatives that have begun to bear fruit. Elsewhere, the sense of clarity is definitely poorer. In Europe, and especially within the Eurozone, the situation remains confused and prospects are bleak.

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  • Eco Focus - Edition September 18, 2014

    September FOMC: Forward guidance maintained with rate trajectory tweaked higher

    The fed funds target range was maintained at 0%-0.25%. The FOMC announced a $10 billion reduction in the pace of the Fed's asset purchases to $15 billion. Beginning next month, the Fed will buy $10 billion of longer-dated Treasuries and $5 billion of MBS. Asset purchases are expected to end next month. The economic assessment noted economic activity expanding at a moderate pace but significant underutilization of labor resources remains. Inflation expectations are stable but inflation is running below the Fed's longer-run objective.

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  • Eco Focus - Edition September 12, 2014

    September FOMC meeting: It's all about the guidance

    We look for no change in the fed funds target. Another $10 billion reduction in QE3 asset purchases is expected, split equally between Treasuries and MBS. QE3 purchases are still expected to end in October. The current reinvestment policy is likely to be maintained until after the rate lift-off next year.

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  • ECO Focus - Edition September 4, 2014

    ECB cuts rates and announces ABS purchases

    The ECB unexpectedly cut all policy rates today, bringing the Refi rate down to 0.05% and the deposit rate to -0.20%. The TLTROs will therefore be conducted at 0.15%. This time the ECB has reached the lower bound as Draghi promised there would be no more rate cuts. The other announcements (an ABS and covered bond purchase programme, with operational details coming in October) and changes to the official statement and staff forecasts were broadly in line with our expectations.

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  • ECO Focus - Edition 1st September 2014

    United Kingdom: housing market outlook

    In this Focus, we look at the degree to which prices are overvalued in the UK real estate market in light of standard household solvency indicators. A significant geographical disparity in trends in these indicators suggests that the existence of a housing bubble is limited to London and the south of the country.

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  • ECO Focus - Edition August 26, 2014

    UK: Commercial real estate

    The commercial real estate includes mainly three categories of assets: office, retail and industrial. Each one of these segments corresponds to a market in itself, in each town of the UK, as location remains crucial for real estate. A focus is presented on the market in London, where some assets like prime office and prime high street retail have shown strong capital value growth. These high valuations induce a risk of downturn, even if the outlook remains favorable for the time being.

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Graphics

Edition September 2014

The pessimistic French and Italian

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