• Headline

    ECB: No shortage of optimism

    Edition April 15, 2015

    Today Mario Draghi reaffirmed the ECB's strong commitment to asset purchases until the Governing Council sees "a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation". While the tone of the statement was mar ...

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    At the end of 2014, the European economies, excluding the United Kingdom, were clearly diverging from the pace of recovery in the United States which appeared much more solid. The context has changed ...

  • Graphic Focus

    Public Finance: difference bewteen expected and actual outcomes (cash basis)

    Edition March 20, 2015

    Fears on the ability of the State to pay civil servants' salaries and pensions mounted as revenues performed poorly in January (shortfall of €935M) due to political uncertainties. ...


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    In collaboration with Crédit Agricole S.A.'s Economic Research Department, Crédit Agricole CIB develops its own axes of research: Global Markets Research, which covers underlying macroeconomic asset ...

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  • Edition April 15, 2015

    ECB: No shortage of optimism

    Today Mario Draghi reaffirmed the ECB's strong commitment to asset purchases until the Governing Council sees "a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation". While the tone of the statement was marginally more positive ("risks have become more balanced"), the renewed focus on inflation "trends", ignoring one-offs and temporary deviations, suggest that the ECB will refrain from major policy changes for now.


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  • Edition 14 April 2015

    ECB: Bank Lending Surge

    The ECB's Bank Lending Survey for Q1 2015 was consistent with a further improvement in the Eurozone credit cycle, including a better transmission of monetary policy transmission to SMEs. The missing link to a sustainable recovery remains investment which contributed negatively to loan demand, with the exception of Spain. The ECB will need to see stronger hard data before it turns more confident about investment prospects.


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  • Edition 13 April 2015

    ECB preview: steady hand

    We expect the ECB to show a steady hand in QE implementation at its regular policy meeting on Wednesday, playing down speculation regarding an early tapering of asset purchases. The Governing Council should also reaffirm that -0.20% is the “effective lower bound” for the deposit rate, as stated in the March accounts.


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  • Edition April 1, 2015

    Emerging Countries - Monthly News Digest

    Highlights: In Poland, the outlook for 2015 is favourable. Caught between sabre rattling and debt negotiations, Ukraine is approaching a crucial period... In South Africa, the rand's depreciation is starting to play its role as a shock absorber for the external accounts. In China, real estate prices continue to fall. In Colombia, the oil price counter-shock is under control.


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  • Edition April 1, 2015

    World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016

    The recovery, which was restricted to the US and UK only a few months ago, is now definitely spreading to other countries. The growth upticks in the Eurozone and Japan differ from the cruising speed now achieved in the US. First off, they are far more modest. They are also more fragile, as they owe a great deal to the drop in oil prices. Another support factor, this time linked more to economic policies, is the relative strength of the US dollar.


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  • March 2015

    Economic and financial forecasts

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.


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  • Edition March 20, 2015

    Greece: From bridging to a lasting solution

    What is at stake in the near-term for Greek authorities is to secure financial support to meet a tight repayment schedule which implies to step backwards on several campaign promises while maintaining its support home. But what is at stake for Greek people in the longer term is to find a lasting solution for the debt problem which does not stake a claim on future growth prospects.


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Edition April 1, 2015

Brazil: balance of payments

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