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    Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition July 1, 2015

    Highlights: In Central Europe, the standard of living is calculated according to GDP at purchasing power parity per capita. The Algerian Prime Minister sounds the alarm. Decoupling in variations in Ni ...

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    Slow motion

    30.06.2015

    We had to revise slightly downwards our cautiously optimistic expectations for global growth. Despite an acceleration of growth in the Eurozone, the global economy is likely to expand more gradually t ...

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    Contributions of household consumption to growth

    Edition June 30, 2015

    In most countries, consumption is the leading growth factor in our 2015-16 scenario. Its contribution to GDP growth is generally higher than its proportion of GDP. This is especially the case in the U ...

  • CREDIT AGRICOLE CIB

    Discover the economic research of Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank

    23.03.2015

    In collaboration with Crédit Agricole S.A.'s Economic Research Department, Crédit Agricole CIB develops its own axes of research: Global Markets Research, which covers underlying macroeconomic asset ...

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  • Edition July 1st, 2015

    Greece – Politics the art of the possible: pre- and post-referendum scenarios

    Alexis Tsipras's surprise decision to call a referendum on proposals by Greece's creditors marked the end of negotiations. An agreement in principle on a number of issues had been found, but one key component was missing: the conditions governing a further debt restructuring. Tsipras is doing a balancing act between pressures from Syriza's left wing and the creditors, and in doing so is gambling his political survival.

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  • Edition July 1, 2015

    Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Highlights: In Central Europe, the standard of living is calculated according to GDP at purchasing power parity per capita. The Algerian Prime Minister sounds the alarm. Decoupling in variations in Nigerian naira and Angolan kwanza against the dollar. India posts an improvement… in industrial production. Brazil must solve its inflation conundrum.

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  • Edition June 30, 2015

    World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016

    We have had to revise down our cautiously optimistic March outlook slightly, for two reasons. First, US growth will be lower than expected in 2015 due to a disappointing first quarter. Secondly, the slowdown in the emerging countries will be a little more marked than originally forecast, with recessions in particular. Despite the improved outlook for growth in the Eurozone, the world economy as a whole is ultimately set to grow more slowly in 2015 than in 2014, before a rebound in 2016.

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  • Edition June 30, 2015

    World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016: Economic and financial forecasts

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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  • Edition June 26, 2015

    Sweden – Rate cut likely postponed, but not currency war

    The positive surprises provided by Swedish inflation data in May and the rebound in inflation expectations have lowered the odds of a rate cut from the Riksbank at its next meeting (1 July, announcement of decision on 2 July). We expect the Riksbank to leave the repo rate unchanged at -0.25%. We have delayed our expectation of a 10bp cut in the repo rate to September.

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  • Edition June 18, 2015

    US – June FOMC: gradual rate rise expected with lift-off later this year

    There was no change in the fed funds target range (0 to 0.25%) or the FOMC's portfolio reinvestment policy at today's meeting. The FOMC continues to anticipate that "it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term."

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  • Edition June 12, 2015

    ECB : keep calm and carry on

    Draghi's "get used to volatility" comment should not be misinterpreted as an inflexible ECB stance. The ECB has kept a dovish bias, which suggests that it would respond to unwarranted monetary tightening eventually in case bond yields (especially real yields in the periphery) and potentially the EUR continue to grind higher.

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Graphics

Edition July 1, 2015

Poland: Inflation & MM rate

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