Kiosque économique

• ECO Real Estate - Edition April 2013

  Prices to fall gradually over the longer term

  Prices are starting to fall. Sales volumes have seen quite significant falls. Are we in a speculative housing bubble? Will the fall-off in sales and prices be violent? Our own diagnosis is unchanged. The ongoing adjustment is cyclical and can be explained by the economic environment and fiscal tightening measures. But the French housing market differentiates itself from most other European markets due to its favourable "fundamentals".

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• ECO Focus - Edition April 23, 2013

  Evolving central bank policies and their market implications

  The Fed's non-conventional monetary policy measures are expected to remain exceptionally accommodative for the next couple of years. The policies will continue to adapt to evolving policy goals and risks with increased clarity and market communication. The new leaders at the Bank of Japan are pursuing ‘bold' actions and emphasising the ‘clarity' of the policies, to work more effectively on confidence and inflation expectations.

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• ECO Focus - Edition April 19, 2013

  French stability programme: public deficit forecast at 2.9% in 2014

  On 17 April, the French government published its “stability programme” for 2013-2017, which sets out its strategy for the public finances over the period and a multi-year public finance trajectory. The main objectives are to restore the public accounts to structural balance in the medium term, to bring the public deficit back below 3% of GDP in 2014 and to concentrate the structural effort on public spending in 2014-2017.

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• ECO Focus - Edition April 16, 2013

  France: Multiplier effect hits hard in Q4

  The secondary effects of the restructuring of the public finances eroded the accounts of economic agents in the last part of 2012: household purchasing power plunged, squeezed by the growing weight of income and capital taxes, while the margin ratio of NFC declined 0.5 points to 27.7%, confirming the slumping profitability of French companies. These new factors confirm our scenario.

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• Éclairages Émergents – Edition April 15, 2013

  South East Asia: what are the risks in 2013?

  Whether down a little in the ASEAN-4 countries or a tad higher in Vietnam, growth in all five countries should again be buoyant in 2013, fuelled by consumption and investment.

  What's more, the short-term risks are acceptable overall. There are a number of concerns, however, as regards recent lending trends, short-term foreign debt, Vietnam and its banking systems, the political environment in Thailand, and governance.

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• ECO Focus – Edition April 5, 2013

  ECB easing in the pipeline, will it be enough?

  The ECB's press conference was consistent with additional monetary easing to come in the next few months. Risks to the recovery have increased, inflation is falling further below the 2% target and monetary transmission remains impaired. The ECB “stands ready to act”. The nuclear option of shifting inflation risks to the downside has not yet been used, but it may be the next communication step unless data improves.

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