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    PRISME - Crédit Agricole Agriculture and Agri-food economic bulletin

    Edition February 2015

    France has regained its position as the world's leading wine producer, but its 2014 exports tell a sorry tale. Volumes are expected to fall further, with weaker penetration of its main markets, especi ...

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    UK: CPI inflation drops to a record low


    In January 2015, the consumer price inflation fell to 0.3%. This is the lowest 12-month rate on record and comes after three consecutive months of decline in prices. The previous lowest CPI inflation ...

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    France: Mortgage lending rates

    Edition January 2015

    Mortgage lending rates are likely to stop falling and stabilise.Long-term rates could rise very gradually in 2015. Lending rates stop falling could lead to a slight fall-off in sales in the pre-owned ...


    Discover the economic research of Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank


    In collaboration with Crédit Agricole S.A.'s Economic Research Department, Crédit Agricole CIB develops its own axes of research: Global Markets Research, which covers underlying macroeconomic asset ...

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  • Edition February 2015

    PRISME - Crédit Agricole Agriculture and Agri-food economic bulletin

    France has regained its position as the world's leading wine producer, but its 2014 exports tell a sorry tale. Volumes are expected to fall further, with weaker penetration of its main markets, especially the USA and the UK. Some positive factors are coming into play for the 2014-2015 season. The harvest has been good and global consumption is picking up. But questions remain as to whether French wine can win back market share.


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  • Edition February 27, 2015

    Spain - The rapid rise of Podemos threatens political stability

    Spain political landscape is changing rapidly. The rise of the 12-month old anti-establishment party of Pablo Iglesias, Podemos, is breaking the country two-party system. Lying behind voters support for Podemos is an austerity fatigue, but also the anger against the corruption of the two traditional parties, the socialists PSOE and, even more, the currently ruling rightist Partido Popular (PP).


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  • Edition February 23, 2015

    Greece: four more months of hope and risks

    The 19 February Eurogroup agreement lays the ground for continued financial assistance to Greece pending the approval of a list of reforms to be submitted by the Greek government today. It looks unclear how the Greek government will fund itself during the negotiations process; a further deterioration in the state cash position could require an increase in T-bills issuance as a bridging option.


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  • Edition January 2015

    France - Housing: resistance

    The French housing market continues to gradually adjust downwards. But the trends differ between new-build and pre-owned. In the pre-owned sector, the number of sales is still high, at 700,000 units in 2014, down 13% on the highs of 2006-2007. Prices have seen a very measured fall, of 1% in Q3 and of a total 6% since the end of 2011. In new-build, however, the correction is marked, with a drop in sales and housing starts of around 35% relative to the 2006-2007 highs. This gradual adjustment should continue in 2015.


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  • Edition February 6, 2015

    Greece : "extend and pretend" will probably not be the end

    In spite of mounting pressure we believe that an agreement between Greece and its creditor countries will be achieved and we look at a 'Grexit' as a tail risk.The compromise should probably be a mix of maturity extension, more concessional rates, fiscal easing and structural reforms.Fiscal easing should favour rather than jeopardise the success of the Greek adjustment program by providing a reflationary impulse and improving debt sustainability.


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  • Edition February 6, 2015

    BoE Inflation Report preview

    The BoE remained on hold at its February meeting (Bank rate at 0.5% and programme of asset purchases at GBP375bn). The February Inflation Report (to be published on Thursday, 12 February) will be the main UK key event for markets next week. We expect strong positive revisions to the growth forecasts and substantial downward revisions to near-term inflation owing to the recent decline in oil prices.


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  • Edition February 5, 2015

    ECB's liquidity move pressures Greek government

    Sticking with its (self-imposed) rules on the eligibility of collateral, the ECB decided to suspend normal refinancing to Greek banks, putting maximum pressure on the Greek government and Eurozone policymakers to reach a deal by the end of the month. The bottom line is that the ECB decision is a risky, albeit calculated political move.


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Edition February 27, 2015

Spain: Metroscopia opinion polls for El Pais (estimated votes)

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