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    World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: "And yet it moves"

    Edition October 4, 2018

    There are plenty of genuine causes for concern. Some threats are still looming, and it is difficult – if not illusory – to assign a probability to them and give them tangible consistency; others h ...

  • Video New

    And yet it moves

    03.10.2018

    Despite the undeniable multiplication of areas of risk. These are not yet dramatically affecting the real economy but are prompting a tightening of financial conditions and undermining trust. ...

  • Graphic Focus

    Lead GDP growth indicator

    Edition 25 July 2018

    Q1 GDP marked a slowdown in growth. This slowdown is not a sign of a downturn in the French economy. The June business surveys suggest a slight improvement in H2. Our lead indicator points to 0.3% GDP ...

  • CREDIT AGRICOLE CIB

    Discover the economic research of Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank

    23.03.2015

    In collaboration with Crédit Agricole S.A.'s Economic Research Department, Crédit Agricole CIB develops its own axes of research: Global Markets Research, which covers underlying macroeconomic asset ...

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  • Edition October 4, 2018

    World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: "And yet it moves"

    There are plenty of genuine causes for concern. Some threats are still looming, and it is difficult – if not illusory – to assign a probability to them and give them tangible consistency; others have already taken shape. The global economy is proving quite resilient. Nevertheless, even before these threats have a tangible influence on the real economy, their effects are being felt in financial variables and expectations.

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  • Edition October 3, 2018

    World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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  • Edition September 28, 2018

    France – Draft budget for 2019: Public deficit to increase temporarily to 2.8% of GDP in 2019

    On 24 September, the French government presented its draft finance bill for 2019. The public deficit will increase slightly, to 2.8% of GDP in 2019 vs. 2.6% in 2018. The public debt ratio should stabilise at 98.6% of GDP. The slight increase in the deficit is temporary and is due to switching the CICE tax credit into a reduction in contributions. The reduction in levies will amount to around 25 billion euros (net) in 2019, 6 for households and 19 for businesses.

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  • Edition August 17, 2018

    United Kingdom – Brexit enters a critical phase

    In the autumn, the UK and the EU have to reach an agreement on the terms of the UK's departure from the EU and a ‘framework for a future relationship'. Our central scenario remains that a last-minute deal will eventually be reached (most likely at the European Council meeting on 13 December) and that a ‘cliff-edge' scenario will be avoided. Arguably, the political risks surrounding our scenario are varied and extreme, and can shift the Brexit process in one direction or another.

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  • Edition August 6, 2018

    UK – Bank of England: On course for slow tightening despite Brexit uncertainty

    The BoE increased its key policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% at the August monetary policy meeting. Well flagged prior to the meeting, the move was largely anticipated by the markets. The vote was unanimous (9-0), contrary to expectations for a split vote. However, it is difficult to extract a clearly hawkish sign for future meetings. We continue to anticipate one rate hike per year, with the next rate hike expected in May 2019.

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  • Edition August 1, 2018

    Italy - Scenario 2018-2019: A stabilized growth

    In 2017, Italian growth increased by 1.5%. Following the political events the country has been facing since March, we have revised our forecasts for the years 2018 and 2019 to 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.

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  • Edition August 1, 2018

    France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

    The French real-estate market experienced an exceptional year in 2017. The first signs of a cooling in the market have emerged since the start of the year. This contraction is set to continue in 2018-2019. Firstly, the gradual refocusing of the Pinel scheme and the PTZ on the most sought-after areas will reduce sales of new-build properties. Secondly, mortgage lending rates are set to increase slightly and the increase in house prices will reduce the households' purchasing power and encouraging buyers to take a more wait-and-see approach.

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Graphics

Edition August 6, 2018

UK: CPI inflation & MPC's projections*

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