Kiosque économique

  • Edition May 22, 2015

    US: Maybe Q1 growth wasn't so weak after all

    Our review of current research suggests that there are reasons to believe that the stall in Q1 real GDP may not have been as dramatic as previously thought. Output growth, as measured by the income-side of the national accounts, has been tracking at a stronger pace than GDP and issues of residual seasonality have depressed Q1 GDP growth measures. We believe the balance of evidence supports the contention that Q1 seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rates are regularly understated by around 1½ percentage points.

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  • Edition April 2015

    PRISME - Crédit Agricole Agriculture and Agri-food economic bulletin

    The French pork industry can be summed up in a few key figures: 5,000 specialist producers deliver most of the 23.7 million pigs raised to some 15 abattoir/processors, which sell the bulk of the various cuts produced to half a dozen purchasing hubs and just over 200 meat curing companies. The remaining 30% (by volume) is exported.

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  • Edition April 29, 2015

    Negative nominal interest rates – "Terra incognita"

    Judged by its immediate objectives, ie, a drop in sovereign interest rates and the risk premiums of so-called peripheral countries, the monetary policy of the ECB is a success. In this connection, does the manifest success already achieved go beyond the originally hoped-for results? Historically ultra-low (if not almost zero) nominal interest rates, even on very long maturities, and, even more to the point, negative interest rates, are raising thorny economic issues – to put it mildly.

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  • Edition April 28, 2015

    Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Highlights: Hungary's foreign currency reserves are satisfactory despite "forintisation". What will Russia's growth figures mean? Morocco wants fewer euros and more dollars for setting its exchange rate. With Nigeria political risk gone, the naira has stabilised against the dollar. The transition is difficult in China. Brazil keeps to its course in the storm.

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  • Edition April 28, 2015

    France – Macroeconomic scenario for 2015-2016

    The current environment is favourable to a quickening in the pace of French growth. This is, in fact, what has been forecast for Q1, with a sustained increase in real GDP. Yet when one analyses the composition of growth over the recent period, one cannot but feel disquiet about the French economy. The low level of investment, in terms of both quantity and quality, is a real problem in these post-crisis times. Our 2015-2016 scenario is based on this two-sided picture.

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  • Edition April 27, 2015

    South East Asia - Comfort zone?

    Think of South East Asia and you immediately think sustained growth rates (often in excess of 5%) and see one of the world's most dynamic regions. Things should be hardly different in 2015, with the sole exception of Thailand, which is struggling to recover from last year's political upheavals. The news is not all good, however. There are areas of weakness, either common to all economies or specific to each.

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  • Edition April 23, 2015

    France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2015-2016

    The correction on the French housing market continued through 2014. It was a measured correction in the pre-owned sector, and more pronounced in new-build. In 2015-2016, the factors operating will be more or less the same, with two possible differences in that mortgage lending rates could stop falling and stabilise, while the support measures for new-build housing could drive a slight recovery in the sector. Volumes look set to ease back in the pre-owned sector, and prices are forecast to fall by 2.5% per year, while developer new-build sales could rebound by 5% a year.

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Edition April 29, 2015

Eurozone: flattening of the yield curve

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