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  • Edition April 15, 2019

    World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: prevention better than cure

    The strong, synchronised cycle of global growth has ended. Alongside hopes that the US-China trade negotiations will result in a deal and that Chinese growth picks up – but not deceiving ourselves about China's ability to drive the world economy – we are seeing signs of flagging, although not a collapse. The major economies will mainly rely on the strength of their domestic demand to achieve a soft landing that is close to potential growth rates. And, preferring prevention rather than cure, cautious central banks have opted for more accommodative monetary policy than expected.

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  • Edition April, 12 2019

    World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: Economic & financial forecasts

    Aperiodic - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts

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  • Edition 9 April 2019

    Italy – Economic environment: Macroeconomic and banking review

    Following a 0.1% downturn in Q3 2018 and Q4 2018, Italy is officially in a technical recession, a term signifying a decrease in GDP over two consecutive quarters. GDP growth in 2018 thus came out at 0.9%, down sharply on the 1.7% reported in 2017. Our central scenario is based on a recovery in activity, especially in industry, starting in Q2 2019, and on a renewed positive contribution from domestic demand. However, the growth overhang in 2019 from Q4 2018 is negative (-0.1%) and will limit GDP growth to an annual average of 0.1% in 2019.

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  • Edition February 15, 2019

    France – Real estate: recent developments and outlook for 2019

    The housing market should remain upbeat in 2019. Demand should be sustained by low lending rates and structural support factors. The market should see neither a bubble nor a sudden collapse. Yet, after an outstanding year in 2017, the market should continue to slow down gently. Transactions should thus see a slight decline in 2019 (-4% over 12 months in pre-owned, -6% in new-build) and the rate of increase in prices should slow towards 2%.

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  • Edition January 23, 2019

    Germany – Scenario 2019-2020: moving towards a normalised growth rate

    In Germany, GDP growth slowed markedly in 2018 (+1.5% annual average, after +2.5% last year). Activity should conserve a moderate growth rate of +1.3% in 2019 and the following year. German growth will continue to be driven by robust domestic demand, fuelled by both private consumption and investment. External demand will nevertheless continue to weigh on growth but to a lesser extent.

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  • Edition January 22, 2019

    France – 2019-2020 Scenario: more dynamic purchasing power but growth slowdown confirmed

    In France, growth has slowed significantly compared with the previous year. Following the publication of the Q3 GDP figure, the growth carryover came out at 1.5% in 2018, compared with 2.3% in 2017. Q1 was effectively disappointing, with growth then firming up slightly in Q3. That said, it is likely to return to a more modest rate at the end of the year, largely due to the effects of the Gilets Jaunes crisis. Going forward, we are forecasting a likely similar annual growth rate in 2019, of 1.6%.

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Edition 6 December 2018

China: domestic debt (exclu. general government) and growth

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