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In its November Inflation Report the BoE revised "materially lower" its projections for CPI inflation, thereby reinforcing the recent shift in market expectations for a later and more gradual path for monetary policy tightening than expected in August. The revisions have been prompted by a much weaker-than-expected actual CPI inflation and greater disinflationary forces coming from abroad.
The ECB has made a number of important dovish changes to its communication, thereby reaffirming its current strategy without any ambiguity. (1) The reference to a roughly EUR1tri balance sheet expansion target has been included in the introductory statement. (2) The ECB remains unanimous in its commitment to ease further if needed and has tasked its staff with “timely preparation” of such unconventional measures. (3) The Governing Council sees indications for downward revisions to staff forecasts in December.
The housing market continues to correct itself slowly. The fall is modest, and is far more limited than in most other European countries. How to explain this gradual correction and two-speed market? The answer is a combination of generally negative economic environment factors and positive structural fundamentals. The corrective trend looks set to continue in 2015 as prices edge slowly down.
This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.
Fears of seeing the Eurozone sink into deflation, against a backdrop of the spectre of the Japanese example, have propelled inflation centre stage. France has not been spared the general price downtrend and inflation has fallen substantially in the recent period, with prices rising by just 0.3% in the 12 months to end-September. In this issue, we aim to examine the causes of this slowdown in prices, or rather the accumulation of factors that have led to the current severe disinflation.
Russia is the leading importer of European pork, cheese, fruit and veg. Announced on 7 August, the Russian embargo exposes Europe's internal market to a risk of fruit, vegetable and milk production surpluses. France exports limited volumes of agricultural produce to Russia but could be affected by a return of goods on the internal market.
Latin America has experienced high growth over the past decade, with average GDP growth rates of 4.1% between 2003 and 2013. Yet for a number of years, Latin America's economies have been slowing. External demand and commodity prices are providing less support, and the region's GDP growth will hardly exceed 1% this year. The external constraint is again weighing on the region's economic performance, but domestic factors also underlie the slowdown.
ECO Focus - Edition November 13, 2014
MPC's CPI inflation projections have been lowered significantly
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