Kiosque économique

  • Edition March 20, 2015

    Greece: From bridging to a lasting solution

    What is at stake in the near-term for Greek authorities is to secure financial support to meet a tight repayment schedule which implies to step backwards on several campaign promises while maintaining its support home. But what is at stake for Greek people in the longer term is to find a lasting solution for the debt problem which does not stake a claim on future growth prospects.

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  • Edition March 20, 2015

    France - How does the Russian crisis affect the economy?

    The Russian crisis is spreading to the French economy via several trans¬mission channels. Foreign trade is affected, of course. Conversely, direct investment flows seems slightly affected by the situation. Another effect will spread via a deterioration in confidence levels and more marked wait-and-see agent behaviour. Nor should we forget that, although it did not trigger the crisis, the oil price fall has acted as an accelerator in the Russian crisis.

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  • Edition March 19, 2015

    ECB: TLTRO, more important than you think

    The take-up at today's TLTRO exceeded expectations, with 143 banks borrowing an extra EUR97.8bn from the ECB. TLTRO will help expand the ECB's balance sheet at the margin but, more importantly, they will contribute towards improving monetary policy transmission and to lower borrowing costs even further. We continue to look for a stronger pick-up in Eurozone bank lending in the coming months.

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  • March 6, 2015

    ECB: upbeat and flexible

    From a macro perspective, yesterday's biggest surprise came from the upbeat revisions to medium-term ECB staff forecasts, with 2017 GDP (2.1%) and HICP (1.8%) median projections reflecting a high degree of confidence over the impact of QE on financial markets and the economy. However, it must be noted that, as a result of a change in methodology, the 1.8% forecast for 2017 HICP incorporates the full expected impact of monetary-easing measures for the first time ever.

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  • Edition March 2015

    Emerging Countries - Monthly News Digest

    Highlights: EU aid continues to rise in Central Europe. The rating agencies have modified their analysis of Russia. 2015 will be more favourable for Morocco. Currency depreciation was fairly widespread in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2014. In China, inflation saw a further fall in January. In Mexico, oil production and the public accounts are adrift.

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  • Edition February 2015

    PRISME - Crédit Agricole Agriculture and Agri-food economic bulletin

    France has regained its position as the world's leading wine producer, but its 2014 exports tell a sorry tale. Volumes are expected to fall further, with weaker penetration of its main markets, especially the USA and the UK. Some positive factors are coming into play for the 2014-2015 season. The harvest has been good and global consumption is picking up. But questions remain as to whether French wine can win back market share.

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  • Edition February 27, 2015

    Spain - The rapid rise of Podemos threatens political stability

    Spain political landscape is changing rapidly. The rise of the 12-month old anti-establishment party of Pablo Iglesias, Podemos, is breaking the country two-party system. Lying behind voters support for Podemos is an austerity fatigue, but also the anger against the corruption of the two traditional parties, the socialists PSOE and, even more, the currently ruling rightist Partido Popular (PP).

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Edition March 20, 2015

Public Finance: difference bewteen expected and actual outcomes (cash basis)

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