• Headline

    French real estate: resilient

    ECO Real estate - Edition April, 2014

    The housing market, where a correction began in 2012, was relatively resilient in 2013. The market has been upbeat in the early months of 2014. Why such relative resilience? For one thing, cyclical fa ...

  • Video New

    Is the world economy better off than a year ago?

    28.03.2014

    Our latest quarterly publication gives a brief overview of the global economic recovery. The return in investor and consumer confidence combined with the still accommodative stance of monetary policy, ...

  • Graphic Focus

    Banks' five-year senior CDS spreads

    ECO Focus - Edition March 24, 2014

    Bank funding costs have eased markedly following the OMT announcement by the ECB. UK-specific measures (notably the Funding for Lending Scheme) which are aimed at boosting bank lending, allowed UK ban ...

  • CREDIT AGRICOLE CIB

    Discover the economic research of Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank

    22.07.2013

    In collaboration with Crédit Agricole S.A.'s Economic Research Department, Crédit Agricole CIB develops its own axes of research: Global Markets Research, which covers underlying macroeconomic asset ...

Kiosque économique

  • ECO Focus – Edition April 17, 2014

    France: reforms gathering pace, but financing is tight

    In his general policy statement, the Prime Minister presented the main outlines of his economic programme. He confirmed and emphasised the priority given to reducing production costs for businesses. New support measures for businesses will be added to the CICE competitiveness and employment tax credit and the Responsibility Pact, including tax reductions. The purchasing power of low-income households is also to receive support. Reductions in payroll taxes have been announced.

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  • French Macro Prospects - Edition March, 2014

    France can pull it off

    France faces many difficulties, including a structural competitiveness deficit, high unemployment, and low corporate profitability. These limitations are likely to hamper France's post-crisis growth rebound. Yet the French economy has no shortage of good points above and beyond its well-known dynamic demographic.

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  • ECO Focus - Edition April 3, 2014

    No ECB action (yet) despite growing concerns

    The ECB defeated our (out-of-consensus) forecast of a rate cut today, choosing not to react to the latest drop in inflation. At the same time, the tone of the press conference was very dovish, with the Governing Council "unanimous in its commitment to using also unconventional instruments in order to cope with risks of too prolonged period of low inflation", including via negative rates, liquidity measures or QE.

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  • Edition March 2014

    Get to the nitty gritty, but without losing sight of the rest!

    One shouldn't always extrapolate from the recent past. Markets and economists seem to agree that the disappointment early this year regarding the improvement in global economic conditions will be short-lived. The "managing of expectations" by central banks is proving more complicated than expected. Geopolitical risk is higher. There is still no sign of volatility disappearing from the markets!

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  • ECO Focus - Edition March 24, 2014

    The UK recovery: is this time any different?

    Historically, domestic demand, especially household consumption, tends to lead recoveries in the UK. Net trade tends to be a muted contributor, making a major contribution only after exchange rate depreciations. The recent recovery does not escape key historical patterns. It has been driven to a major extent by consumer spending while net trade has been weak. Dwellings investment accounted for around one-tenth of growth last year – higher than its share in the level of output.

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  • ECO Focus - Edition March 13, 2014

    Spain: things are looking up

    The recovery is under way in Spain, even if fundamentals remain fragile. GDP is expected to progress by 0.9% in 2014, boasted by a strong carryover effect from end 2013. Survey data has been encouraging since the beginning of the year. The drag from fiscal adjustment and bank sector restructuring will be much less pronounced in 2014.

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  • ECO Focus - Edition March 6, 2014

    ECB: toolbox closed, not locked

    The ECB left policy rates unchanged at today's meeting, contrary to our expectation of a small Refi rate cut. No new liquidity measures were announced at this stage. The new staff projections have revealed an inflation profile below target throughout the forecast horizon, at 1.5% on average in 2016, only picking up to 1.7% in Q416. Risks to price stability are still seen as broadly balanced, but the ECB might be in the process of revising its estimate of the output gap lower.

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Graphics

ECO Real estate - Edition April, 2014

France: existing housing prices

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