• Headline

    UK: public finances under pressure

    ECO Focus - Edition November 28, 2014

    The Autumn Statement (to be published on 3 December) will likely reveal significant upward revisions to budget deficit forecasts mainly due to disappointing growth in receipts. Despite the deteriorati ...

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    UK: contribution of employment composition to AWE growth

    ECO Focus - Edition November 28, 2014

    Compositional changes in employment weighed on wage growth in 2014. Factors of particular importance were the changes in the occupational mix leading to a concentration of employment gains in lower-pa ...

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  • ECO Focus - Edition November 28, 2014

    UK: public finances under pressure

    The Autumn Statement (to be published on 3 December) will likely reveal significant upward revisions to budget deficit forecasts mainly due to disappointing growth in receipts. Despite the deterioration in public deficit being mostly structural in our view, the government's fiscal mandate expressed in cyclically-adjusted terms would not be out of reach, although by a narrower margin.

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  • ECO Focus - Edition November 13, 2014

    UK: the BoE slashes its inflation projections

    In its November Inflation Report the BoE revised "materially lower" its projections for CPI inflation, thereby reinforcing the recent shift in market expectations for a later and more gradual path for monetary policy tightening than expected in August. The revisions have been prompted by a much weaker-than-expected actual CPI inflation and greater disinflationary forces coming from abroad. 

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  • ECO Focus - Edition November 6, 2014

    ECB's 'unanimous' clarification

    The ECB has made a number of important dovish changes to its communication, thereby reaffirming its current strategy without any ambiguity. (1) The reference to a roughly EUR1tri balance sheet expansion target has been included in the introductory statement. (2) The ECB remains unanimous in its commitment to ease further if needed and has tasked its staff with “timely preparation” of such unconventional measures. (3) The Governing Council sees indications for downward revisions to staff forecasts in December.

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  • ECO Real estate – Edition October, 2014

    French real estate: slight improvement in new-build in 2015

    The housing market continues to correct itself slowly. The fall is modest, and is far more limited than in most other European countries. How to explain this gradual correction and two-speed market? The answer is a combination of generally negative economic environment factors and positive structural fundamentals. The corrective trend looks set to continue in 2015 as prices edge slowly down.

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  • Forecasts Prospects - November 2014

    Economic and financial forecasts

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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  • French macro prospects - Edition October, 2014

    France: Scant risk of a deflationary spiral

    Fears of seeing the Eurozone sink into deflation, against a backdrop of the spectre of the Japanese example, have propelled inflation centre stage. France has not been spared the general price downtrend and inflation has fallen substantially in the recent period, with prices rising by just 0.3% in the 12 months to end-September. In this issue, we aim to examine the causes of this slowdown in prices, or rather the accumulation of factors that have led to the current severe disinflation.

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  • Prisme - Edition September, 2014

    PRISME - Crédit Agricole Agriculture and Agri-food economic bulletin

    Russia is the leading importer of European pork, cheese, fruit and veg. Announced on 7 August, the Russian embargo exposes Europe's internal market to a risk of fruit, vegetable and milk production surpluses. France exports limited volumes of agricultural produce to Russia but could be affected by a return of goods on the internal market.

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ECO Focus - Edition November 28, 2014

UK: contribution of employment composition to AWE growth

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