• Size up
  • Size down
  • Share this article
  • Print this page

Eco Focus

Eco Focus is an aperiodic publication providing up-to-the-minute analysis of a current topic.

France – the CICE: a positive impact but no change of model

  • ECO Focus – Edition October 14, 2014

    To date, the impact of the CICE (Tax Credit for Competitiveness and Employment) has been patchy. The margin ratio of non-financial companies edged up slightly at the start of the year, but fell back in Q2, and investment continued to adjust. The chosen target range of salaries seems to be having a more pronounced impact on wages and employment than on profitability. The CICE is having a positive short-term effect, but the longer-term impact could be more finely-shaded than expected.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 518.2 Ko)

France: constricted growth

  • ECO Focus – Edition October 9, 2014

    We foresee an annual real GDP growth at 0.5% in 2014. Economic activity is capped by various factors: the business climate; structural issues; and the high unemployment, production facility closures owed to the crisis. These constraints, although still present, should ease in 2015. If the uptick in Eurozone activity is confirmed, volume GDP growth could come in at 1% in France, largely thanks to the positive effects of the structural reforms implemented.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 327.21 Ko)

France: mediocre business climate complicates deficit reduction

  • ECO Focus - Edition October 6, 2014

    The French government has announced its new public deficit forecasts for 2014 and 2015. These are sharply higher, with a deficit of 4.4% of GDP (compared with the previous estimate of 3.8%) in 2014, and of 4.3% in 2015 (3% previously). The target of a return to a 3% deficit, required by the EU Treaties, has been deferred to 2017. The growth forecasts underpinning the draft Finance Act for 2015 are set at 0.4% in 2014 and 1% in 2015.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 492.44 Ko)

ECB: how much risk appetite?

  • ECO Focus - Edition October 3, 2014

    The ECB unveiled the details of its ABS and Covered Bonds purchases programmes that will last for at least two years, sticking with 'Plan A' as we expected. The ECB will purchase senior and guaranteed mezzanine ABS tranches in both primary and secondary markets. Retained securities will be included under some conditions, boosting the pool of potential interventions by some margin. All in all, Draghi mentioned a "potential universe of purchases up to EUR1trn" while maintaining a certain degree of constructive ambiguity.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 348.12 Ko)

September FOMC: Forward guidance maintained with rate trajectory tweaked higher

  • Eco Focus - Edition September 18, 2014

    The fed funds target range was maintained at 0%-0.25%. The FOMC announced a $10 billion reduction in the pace of the Fed's asset purchases to $15 billion. Beginning next month, the Fed will buy $10 billion of longer-dated Treasuries and $5 billion of MBS. Asset purchases are expected to end next month. The economic assessment noted economic activity expanding at a moderate pace but significant underutilization of labor resources remains. Inflation expectations are stable but inflation is running below the Fed's longer-run objective.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 318.92 Ko)

September FOMC meeting: It's all about the guidance

  • Eco Focus - Edition September 12, 2014

    We look for no change in the fed funds target. Another $10 billion reduction in QE3 asset purchases is expected, split equally between Treasuries and MBS. QE3 purchases are still expected to end in October. The current reinvestment policy is likely to be maintained until after the rate lift-off next year.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 312.08 Ko)

ECB cuts rates and announces ABS purchases

  • ECO Focus - Edition September 4, 2014

    The ECB unexpectedly cut all policy rates today, bringing the Refi rate down to 0.05% and the deposit rate to -0.20%. The TLTROs will therefore be conducted at 0.15%. This time the ECB has reached the lower bound as Draghi promised there would be no more rate cuts. The other announcements (an ABS and covered bond purchase programme, with operational details coming in October) and changes to the official statement and staff forecasts were broadly in line with our expectations.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 330.51 Ko)

United Kingdom: housing market outlook

  • ECO Focus - Edition 1st September 2014

    In this Focus, we look at the degree to which prices are overvalued in the UK real estate market in light of standard household solvency indicators. A significant geographical disparity in trends in these indicators suggests that the existence of a housing bubble is limited to London and the south of the country.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 409.45 Ko)

UK: Commercial real estate

  • ECO Focus - Edition August 26, 2014
    The commercial real estate includes mainly three categories of assets: office, retail and industrial. Each one of these segments corresponds to a market in itself, in each town of the UK, as location remains crucial for real estate. A focus is presented on the market in London, where some assets like prime office and prime high street retail have shown strong capital value growth. These high valuations induce a risk of downturn, even if the outlook remains favorable for the time being.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 303.48 Ko)

ECB: the EUR1trn TLTRO hope

  • ECO Focus - Edition July 4, 2014
    The ECB sounds confident that the June package will work its way towards bank lending and the real economy, helping to bring inflation back to levels consistent with price stability over the medium term. Consistent with this objective, the TLTROs' conditions look very generous, allowing deleveraging banks in particular to borrow extra cash at the ECB from 2015 onwards.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 341.03 Ko)

Subscription

Follow the economic activity!

Weekly, monthly, quarterly, aperiodic... all the economic information at your own pace!

Already a subscriber ? Log in