Bourse
Eco Focus - Edition May 14, 2012
France : Crédit Agricole leading indicators
The Crédit Agricole leading indicator suggests that GDP is stable in Q1 and Q2 2012. We have increased our Q1 growth forecast to 0% q/q, compared with the earlier -0.1%.
ECO Focus IAV Europe - Edition May 11, 2012
Eurozone: Crédit Agricole leading indicators
The fall-off in activity looks like being less marked than expected in Spain, limited to 0.3%. In Germany, activity may have fallen slightly, by 0.1% q/q, and seems to have stabilised in France in the first quarter. It is in Italy that the recession seems to have been most sudden, with GDP down 0.7%.
ECO Focus - Edition 3 May 2012
ECB laying the ground for potential action
The ECB left its main policy rates unchanged today. The Governing Council did not discuss a change in rates as the monetary stance was deemed appropriate despite rising uncertainty. Those hoping for an explicit hint at an imminent easing may have been disappointed as a result. However, the removal of the reference to “upside risks” to inflation from the official statement is consistent with a clear shift towards a more flexible stance, in our view. In the past, this has been a traditional way for the ECB to signal a potential move on rates.
ECO Focus - Edition May 2, 2012
France: strengths to emphasise
There has been much talk recently about the structural weaknesses in the French economy. But while correcting these points can only help to strengthen the country's competitiveness and boost its growth potential, France can also seek to rely on its strengths and leverage these many assets.
ECO Focus - Edition April 10, 2012
France, 2012 Elections: Programmes fall short of challenges
The electoral programmes of the two main candidates in the French presidential election were presented in January in the case of F. Hollande, and more recently for N. Sarkozy. They should in theory tackle the French economy's structural weaknesses, and in the first instance the structural weakness of SMEs and the low level of competitiveness of French products. Their programmes offer only partial solutions. However, in both cases, the budgets are balanced in theory but raise questions, especially as regards spending targets.
ECO Focus - Edition April, 5 2012
ECB exit still a very distant prospect
Today’s ECB decision to leave rates unchanged was a non-event. However, its communication continues to show a gradual shift towards a greater emphasis on inflation risks, including potential second-round effects on wages, even though there is no such risk emerging at the Eurozone level, for now. At the same time, ECB’s President M. Draghi made it clear that he would oppose any quick exit from non-conventional liquidity measure which he said was "premature".
Edition 27 March 2012
Monetary policy: new frontiers, new challenges
With the crisis, central banks found themselves in the front line when it came to cushioning financial shocks and underpinning the fragile process of recovery. They used every weapon in their arsenal, beginning with the conventional by flooring interest rates, and then moving on to the non-conventional by opting for active management of the size and structure of their balance sheets. While these measures were dictated by the need for an emergency response to a crisis of historic proportions, the fact of putting the financial system on life support in this way raises doubts about possible addiction to such support, with inevitable questions about the side-effects of such ultra-accommodative policies.
Edition March 9, 2012
Eco Focus - ECB downplays Bundesbank's concerns
For the second straight month the (modest) changes to the ECB statement are slightly less dovish than we had expected, with near-term upside risks to inflation preventing the ECB from signalling further monetary easing. No change in rates was discussed today.
Eco Focus - Edition 5 March 2012
France: Just one surprise, not two!
France's positive surprising GDP performance in Q4 2011 (+0.2% q/q) is unlikely to be repeated in Q1 2012. We expect Q1 GDP growth to contract 0.3% q/q, undermined by weaker domestic demand.
Eco Focus - Edition March 2, 2012
ECB to delay rate cuts for tactical reasons
We no longer expect the ECB to cut rates in March, although we maintain the view that additional monetary easing is warranted as economic growth remains structurally weak and unemployment is rising. Lower policy rates would be welcomed as part of a more accommodative policy mix as long as the fiscal drag weighs on domestic activity. At the margin, they would also help lower bank lending rates, which remain abnormally high in many countries.
