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Eco Focus

Eco Focus is an aperiodic publication providing up-to-the-minute analysis of a current topic.

Eurozone – Outlook 2017-2018: Reconfiguration of expectations

  • Edition November 10, 2017

    Eurozone growth is strengthening and was moving along at an annual rate of over 2%. The Eurozone thus looks set for another year of above-potential growth driven by a favourable global environment. These positive surprises as regards growth could encourage economic agents to upgrade their prospects, having in recent years been used to their successive downward revisions. However, the euro's recent appreciation has brought some shadow on this perfectly justified optimism-tinted scenario.

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Germany – 2017-2018 Scenario: Outlook in Q3-2017

  • Edition October 2017

    Domestic demand remains the main factor supporting German activity in 2017 and 2018. The acceleration of consumption and investment this year is being confirmed over the quarters, while the export surge supported by world trade is counterbalanced by the rise of imports that are more dynamic. Our scenario expects a solid GDP growth of + 2.2% in 2017 and + 2.1% in 2018.

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Spain – Madrid vs Barcelona: 'més que un clasico'

  • Edition 29 September 2017

    The continuing refusal of Madrid to open negotiations for further Catalan fiscal autonomy has pushed the Catalan nationalist conservatives towards secessionism, leading to the formation of a cross-party majority for independence in the Catalan Parlament. If a UDI is claimed, following a positive result in the referendum, its actual implementation seems unlikely, given the lack of strong popular support and the weaknesses of the secessionist majority.

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Germany – Political issues – Merkel 4.0: What political changes can we expect?

  • Edition 21 September 2017

    Angela Merkel is likely to remain the German Chancellor after these federal legislative elections. The arbitration that she will have to carry out between the two currently possible coalitions will be decisive for the economic policy of the country. In order to understand their differences, we propose here to analyze the electoral proposals put forward by the political parties competing on basis of four key themes in the electoral campaign.

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Germany – Political issues: Assessing the Merkel years

  • Edition September 20, 2017

    Germany faced depth change during the mandates of Angela Merkel. It overcame the difficulties raised by reunification, came through two major economic crises, and at the same time it was able to become the engine of European growth. This success is not only the result of the actions carried out by the Chancellor but also a result of the changes previously initiated. Its economic model is still attractive in some respects but will have to evolve to face of the challenges of tomorrow.

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United kingdom – The BoE points to a November hike

  • Edition September 20, 2017

    The Bank of England gave a clear sign at its September monetary policy meeting that a rate hike may occur as soon as the next meeting in November. Subsequent speeches by Carney and Vlieghe have reinforced that call. The BoE appears more confident that underlying inflationary pressures are building gradually, on the back of a continued erosion of labour-market slack and supportive global growth. We adjust our central-case scenario to one rate hike of 25 bps in November.

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US Congress is back in session with an urgent legislative agenda

  • Edition 5 september 2017

    A USD7.9bn down payment on disaster recovery relief requested by President Trump for victims of hurricane Harvey is likely to be approved quickly. Congress will need to raise or suspend the debt limit to avoid a potential Treasury default. The debt limit legislation might be linked to the increased spending appropriation for disaster relief in the wake of hurricane Harvey.

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UK: Heightened political uncertainty versus hopes for a softer Brexit

  • Edition June 16, 2017

    The 8 June snap election was a shock for Theresa May as it resulted in a loss of the Conservative party's absolute majority in Parliament. Even though she decided not to resign, she is vulnerable to challenges within her party at any time. This hung parliament heralds a period of political instability and significant uncertainty over the sequence of future events. It also opens up a wide range of outcomes for Brexit. Meanwhile, a minority government is unlikely to last its full five-year term, increasing the risk of another snap election.

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Dove profusion

  • Edition June 8, 2017

    There are too many questions, there is no 'one solution', there is no core inflation, there is growth celebration. And an ECB that has provided a profusion of dovish elements to make markets feel, to make markets know that, despite the fact that the wording of the forward guidance changed, the ECB will remain on the path of an accommodative stance for a prolonged period of time.

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United-Kingdom - The approaching snap election and what it means for Brexit

  • Edition June 2, 2017

    On 8 June the British people will go back to the polls for a snap general election. Our base-case scenario is that the Conservatives will extend their parliamentary majority, as suggested by the majority of polls. However, the slump in the Conservatives' lead in voting intentions over the past two weeks suggests that the election's result should not be taken as a foregone conclusion.

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