• Size up
  • Size down
  • Share this article
  • Print this page

Eco Focus

Eco Focus is an aperiodic publication providing up-to-the-minute analysis of a current topic.

United-Kingdom - Consumers' resilience under scrutiny

  • Edition April 10, 2017

    The resilience of the British economy in the post-referendum period has taken many by surprise. Some made rapid conclusions that ‘Brexit has had no effect on the economy'. To state this, however, is to voluntarily omit that Brexit has not yet occurred. We are still at the very beginning of the negotiation process, which started officially on 29 March. The main effects of the referendum result so far have been through foreign exchange.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 388.54 Ko)

US-Rate hike but little change in views

  • Edition du 16 mars 2017

    As widely expected, the FOMC raised the Fed funds (FF) target by 25 bps to a range of 0.75% to 1.00%. The Fed's median projection for the FF rate at the end of 2017 was 1.4%, implying two additional 25 bps rate hikes this year. This is unchanged from the December projection as was the projection for yearend 2018 at 2.1%, implying 3 additional hikes next year. The longer-run fed funds rate projection remained at 3.0%.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 434.18 Ko)

ECB - Tainted dove

  • Edition 10 March, 2017

    Sometimes the ECB feels it has to run away, it has to get away from the dovish stance it drove into the heart of the Eurozone. The dovish stance seems to be close to an end. It is losing its usefulness… The constructive ambiguity widely used by the ECB at today's press conference confirms our view that the ECB is almost at the peak of its accommodative stance: from now on, it will slow the expectations on monetary policy before actually – very gradually – removing the monetary support.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 116.63 Ko)

ECB: The cat that walked by himself

  • Edition March 8, 2017

    Rudyard Kipling's cat is the wildest animal of the Wet Wild Woods, not because he refuses to respect the bargain negotiated – on the contrary, he respects it whatever happens – but because he respects only the bargain and refuses to submit to any other kind of pressure: man's boot-throwing or the dog's bite. He is the cat that walks by himself. Mario Draghi is ready to do "whatever it takes", "whatever the ECB must", "without any limit" to respect the bargain negotiated in the European Treaty: price stability.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 173.3 Ko)

Italy vs Spain: do fundamentals justify trade?

  • Edition February 3, 2017

    Markets and institutional organisations favour a better recent dynamic in Spain, while Italy stands out as benefitting from a better status on various economic dimensions. Spain has started earlier implementing a series of post-crisis structural reforms, while Italy was standing on a better reform track in the 1990s. The latest impressive round of Italian structural reforms is too young to unveil their impact and has not been fully taken into account by observers.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 3.87 Mo)

US-D.C. Update: From words to acts- fiscal policy obstacles

  • Edition March 1st, 2017

    The Republican's key legislative focus this year is on repealing the ACA and passing a tax reform package. That is a very ambitious agenda that is unlikely to be implemented before next year, in our view. ACA Repeal/Replace: Easier said than done. The current proposals have yet to convince a majority in Congress given concerns for millions who may lose their health insurance coverage in the years ahead and tax hikes for those with generous health care plans. The House leadership plans to move forward with its proposals nonetheless.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 555.94 Ko)

US- Prepping the markets for a hike

  • Edition February 16, 2017

    US economic performance is likely to warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate. Chair Yellen reiterated her view that "waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession."

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 392.56 Ko)

FOMC: Policy unchanged. No hints on timing of next hike

  • Edition 2 February, 2017

    As widely expected, the FOMC left its monetary policy unchanged with the Fed funds rate target range maintained at 0.5% to 0.75% at its February meeting. The Fed's balance sheet reinvestment policies were also unchanged.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 282.13 Ko)

United kingdom – So ambitious it could prove unrealistic

  • Edition 20 January, 2017

    On 17 January, UK PM Theresa May clarified the broad objectives of her government's plan for the Brexit. The UK will leave the Single Market and the customs union. It will seek a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union and ambitious trade deals with third countries. May also promised a parliamentary vote on the final terms of the Brexit.

    Extract

    Download publication - (Format PDF - 392.07 Ko)

ECB: clearly dovish, but how and until when?

  • Edition January 19, 2017

    As expected the ECB maintained a dovish stance, downplaying the relatively high inflation numbers of December, and focussed the speech instead on the low and stalling core inflation rate, and on the downside risks. It restated its asymmetrical forward guidance: on rates – they can go lower but not higher over the medium term; on QE – it can be increased in size and in duration but not reduced.

    Extract

    Télécharger la publication - (Format PDF - 107.75 Ko)

Subscription

Follow the economic activity!

Sectors, regions, videos, graphics... all the economic information that you needs !

Already a subscriber ? Log in