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Eco Focus

Eco Focus is an aperiodic publication providing up-to-the-minute analysis of a current topic.

United Kingdom – Bank of England to step up its pace of tightening slightly

  • Edition February 14, 2018

    The BoE unanimously decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged at its February meeting, but surprised markets with a hawkish stance. The BoE indicated that "monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period" than anticipated in November. We now expect the next rate hike in May, while we maintain our forecast for one additional rate increase in November this year and one in August next year.

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United Kingdom – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

  • Edition 26 January 2018

    Brexit will be the dominant theme over the next few years. 2018 will be marked by the negotiations on a transition phase and on the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, while negotiations on the free-trade agreement should begin in 2019. Our central scenario is based on the key assumption that a withdrawal agreement will be reached between the UK and the EU under the terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

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Germany – 2017-2018 scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

  • Edition January 17, 2018

    Our scenario for the German activity is based on a solid growth of 2.6% in 2017 and 2018. It's mainly supported by a strong domestic demand driven by both private consumption and productive investment. However, the surge in net exports also seems to contribute more sustainably to this phase of expansion of the economic cycle.

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Spain – Political issues: Issues and consequences of the Catalan elections

  • Edition December 15, 2017

    Although likely to continue as the leading political Catalan political force, the separatists have not formed a united front for the forthcoming regional election of December 21st. A new separatist government with the support of Podemos seems the most probable outcome. However, if the division within the secessionism camp lower the probability of a renewed unilateral road map no longer seems to be on the agenda, those divisions mean that we cannot rule out the possibility of a new election.

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Eurozone – Outlook 2017-2018: Reconfiguration of expectations

  • Edition November 10, 2017

    Eurozone growth is strengthening and was moving along at an annual rate of over 2%. The Eurozone thus looks set for another year of above-potential growth driven by a favourable global environment. These positive surprises as regards growth could encourage economic agents to upgrade their prospects, having in recent years been used to their successive downward revisions. However, the euro's recent appreciation has brought some shadow on this perfectly justified optimism-tinted scenario.

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Germany – 2017-2018 Scenario: Outlook in Q3-2017

  • Edition October 2017

    Domestic demand remains the main factor supporting German activity in 2017 and 2018. The acceleration of consumption and investment this year is being confirmed over the quarters, while the export surge supported by world trade is counterbalanced by the rise of imports that are more dynamic. Our scenario expects a solid GDP growth of + 2.2% in 2017 and + 2.1% in 2018.

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Spain – Madrid vs Barcelona: 'més que un clasico'

  • Edition 29 September 2017

    The continuing refusal of Madrid to open negotiations for further Catalan fiscal autonomy has pushed the Catalan nationalist conservatives towards secessionism, leading to the formation of a cross-party majority for independence in the Catalan Parlament. If a UDI is claimed, following a positive result in the referendum, its actual implementation seems unlikely, given the lack of strong popular support and the weaknesses of the secessionist majority.

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Germany – Political issues – Merkel 4.0: What political changes can we expect?

  • Edition 21 September 2017

    Angela Merkel is likely to remain the German Chancellor after these federal legislative elections. The arbitration that she will have to carry out between the two currently possible coalitions will be decisive for the economic policy of the country. In order to understand their differences, we propose here to analyze the electoral proposals put forward by the political parties competing on basis of four key themes in the electoral campaign.

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Germany – Political issues: Assessing the Merkel years

  • Edition September 20, 2017

    Germany faced depth change during the mandates of Angela Merkel. It overcame the difficulties raised by reunification, came through two major economic crises, and at the same time it was able to become the engine of European growth. This success is not only the result of the actions carried out by the Chancellor but also a result of the changes previously initiated. Its economic model is still attractive in some respects but will have to evolve to face of the challenges of tomorrow.

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United kingdom – The BoE points to a November hike

  • Edition September 20, 2017

    The Bank of England gave a clear sign at its September monetary policy meeting that a rate hike may occur as soon as the next meeting in November. Subsequent speeches by Carney and Vlieghe have reinforced that call. The BoE appears more confident that underlying inflationary pressures are building gradually, on the back of a continued erosion of labour-market slack and supportive global growth. We adjust our central-case scenario to one rate hike of 25 bps in November.

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