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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: The end is not yet nigh

    Edition July 10, 2018

    In the Eurozone, the economic slowdown in Q118 has raised a number of questions, often met by overly pessimistic, even alarmist, responses. However, the shock, which can be put down to relatively sluggish exports, does not signal an early end to the growth cycle. There are no crippling constraints on supply, particularly when it comes to the workforce: labour tensions will not derail growth. Growth is subsiding and is coming under threat from external factors, with the tightening of US monetary policy less worrying than the risk of a trade war escalation. In light of the likely retaliation by the US's trading partners (though they would have to be moderate, given the losses such retaliation would entail for the countries concerned), it would be overambitious to put a figure on the potential cost of a war that has yet to take shape fully. A trade war would obviously hamper growth. However, even now, before any escalation has occurred, the potential damage to confidence and the ensuing adverse effect on investment decisions is a real cause for concern, in our view.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 29, 2018

    Highlights: What is to be done with the Balkans, Europe's enfants terribles? Is there a risk of a hard landing in Turkey? Saudi Arabia's authorities are concerned by the sharp rise in unemployment. Moody's has downgraded Angola's sovereign debt rating by a notch. In India, victory leaves a bitter taste. Argentina is playing an old, hopeless and costly game.

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  • Europe – Foreign trade – Trade war: the price to be paid

    Edition May 2018

    The announcements concerning the Trump administration's trade policy present a serious challenge for the European Union. If it fails to bring the US back to the WTO's negotiating table, the European Union could either enter into bilateral negotiations, or lodge a complaint with the WTO in order to obtain compensation. Both options carry a cost, be it having to renounce multilateralism, or face an escalation of the trade conflict with the US.

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  • Germany – 2018-2019 scenario: Outlook at Q1-2018

    Edition april 20, 2018

    After a strong growth in 2017, we expect activity growth to be also robust in 2018 and a slight slowdown in 2019. The unemployment rate has not yet reached its bottom and underemployed part-time workers represent a potential source of additional workforce to meet the increased demand. Domestic demand remains the main pillar of growth, while external demand may suffer from a more protectionist environment than in the past.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

    Edition April 4, 2018

    In the Eurozone, the recovery phase, accompanied by its share of nice surprises, is now behind us and the economy is settling into its growth phase. The sometimes disappointing findings of the surveys are not flagging up a cyclical reversal, but its natural slowdown. They reflect nothing more than expectations adapting to reality. The confidence of economic agents has become more consistent, thanks to the strength of developments in the real economy. The strength of the fundamentals suggests further sustained growth rates, of close to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with no significant pick-up in inflation. Thus, there is no threat of a monetary emergency and the ECB's monetary policy should very gradually become less accommodative.

    The emerging world should see stable growth of around 4.7% in 2018 – satisfactory without setting pulses racing.

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  • United Kingdom – Brexit: considerable progress, but the hardest part is yet to come

    Edition 28 March 2018

    Considerable progress was made in the Brexit negotiations over the last few weeks. The main advances have been the translation into legal terms of the political commitments made when the preliminary divorce agreement was reached on 8 December 2017. These concern the divorce bill and the rights of UK and EU nationals. The negotiators have also agreed on a transition period until the end of 2020. 

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  • Italy – Political risk contained by growth and improvement in the banking sector

    Edition 27 March 2018

    The new government has scant leeway for its first main task, the 2019 budget, owing to the multi-year fiscal trajectory negotiated with the European Commission that is ill-compatible with electoral promises. It is in this area, as well as in the continuation of the structural reforms introduced by the outgoing government, that the reliability of the new coalition will be judged by European partners, rating agencies and investors.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition March 7, 2018

    Highlights: It's not growth that is missing in Central and Eastern Europe... In Saudi Arabia, there are doubts about the rebalancing of the growth model. In Sub-Saharan Africa, dependence on commodity exports remains strong and raises the issue of economic diversification. In India exchange rate risk is higher, Brazil delivers a kaleidoscope of data for a poorly enthusiastic panorama.

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  • Political issues – Populisms: The trap closes in the Czech Republic

    Edition February 19, 2018

    How to explain the shift to populism in Central Europe? And how to explain that it is being implemented by the same political agents who contributed to establishing democratic regimes after the Iron Curtain came down? The recent re-election of the populist candidate Miloš Zeman to the Czech presidency is causing ripples well beyond his own country because it highlights a phenomenon that concerns Central Europe as a whole.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition February 6, 2018

    Highlights: There's a misunderstanding about narrowing the living standards gap in Hungary. In Russia, beware the slowdown. Economic performance was only average in the Middle East and North Africa in 2017, but there are hopes of a recovery in 2018. Sub-Saharan Africa: will 2018 be a better vintage for the region than 2017? No repeat performance in China. In Argentina, if you can't cut inflation, raise the target …

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