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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition June 7, 2017

    Highlights: What changes are forecast for Turkey's current account balance? Which Middle East and North Africa countries are over-indebted? Côte d'Ivoire experiences mutiny episode 2. Heading for a slowdown in China. Inflation picking up in Mexico.


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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 11, 2017

    Highlights: Poland's budget deficit was up in the first quarter. Turkey has switched political regime. Qatar's economy is benefitting from the virtues of a counter-cyclical policy. The plummeting price of cocoa is likely to have severely adverse consequences in Côte-d'Ivoire and Ghana. Chinese GDP growth picked up slightly in the first quarter, to 6.9% year-on-year. In Brazil, interest rates are falling and inflation is slowing (and contrariwise).


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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2016-2017: That elusive missing link

    Edition October 3, 2016

    At a time when world trade is flagging – for reasons that are as much structural as cyclical – and when it is no longer a growth driver, households continue to be growth's chief pillar. They consume and they invest. Following a period of deleveraging, the improving labour market, the steady – if sluggish – rise in wages, positive wealth effects and low inflation – which is driving gains in purchasing power – constitute a series of fundamentals that, so far, is proving resilient.

    Although the drivers do not all have the same power, they should nevertheless allow both the US and European economies to grow at a rate of 1.6% in 2016. That rate is respectively close to and much higher than those economies' potential growth rates of 1.6-1.7% in the US and 1% in the Eurozone. That said, we cannot see any recovery in productive investment, which is clearly not at the level we could have hoped for. It is also futile to hope for a sharp increase any time soon in what (in the olden days…) used to constitute a ‘growth engine'.


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  • UK – The BoE reveals its 'sledgehammer' to crack the nut of a Brexit-induced slowdown

    Edition August 5, 2016

    On 4 August, the Bank of England lowered its key policy rate by 25bp to 0.25% as a response to the expectation of a Brexit-induced weakness in demand. Furthermore, it delivered a package of unconventional measures aiming to provide additional support to growth. These included a restart of the purchases of government bonds to the tune of GBP60bn, the purchase of corporate bonds (up to GBP10bn) and a new Term Funding Scheme.


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  • US - FOMC: Steady in July but setting up a hike later this year

    Edition July 28, 2016

    The FOMC maintained its current monetary policy settings today, in line with market expectations. Neither the 0.25% to 0.50% Fed funds target range nor the Fed's current portfolio reinvestment policies were changed. The assessment of current economic conditions in the policy statement was more upbeat, reflecting stronger job gains in June and an expected acceleration in Q2 real GDP growth to be reported on Friday.


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  • France - How will Brexit impact the French economy?

    Edition July 4, 2016

    Like the rest of the EU, France will be affected by the United Kingdom's exit from the Union. The impact will, however be modest. In the short term there will be some market turbulence and a deterioration in the business climate. In the medium term, growth will be impacted by a slowdown in exports and foreign investment.


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  • US- June FOMC options open. Job market & inflation progress...

    Edition 20 May 2016

    FOMC voters want to keep their options open for raising rates in June. They seek to "maintain the flexibility to make this decision based on how the incoming data and developments shaped their outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as their evolving assessments of the balance of risks around that outlook." Fed officials generally saw the Q1 growth slowdown as temporary and noted that labor market conditions continued to strengthen while inflation continued to run below the 2% objective.


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  • US-April FOMC: No change. No hints. June still in play

    Edition 28 April 2016

    The FOMC maintained its current monetary policy settings today, in line with market expectations. Neither the 0.25% to 0.50% Fed funds target range nor the Fed's current portfolio reinvestment policies were changed. The discussion in the March FOMC minutes and subsequent comments from Fed officials pointed to little chance of policy move in April.


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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2016-2017: Keeping a sense of balance

    Edition March 31, 2016

    There's a lengthy list of risks piling up upstream of our economic scenario. In addition to the geopolitical and political risks, consider also the following concerns: collapsing Chinese growth; a brutal, uncontrolled depreciation of its currency by Beijing; commodity prices plummeting again; a sharp slowdown in US growth; a sharp increase in corporate bankruptcies in the US oil sector; Eurozone deflation; and the inevitable miring of the emerging world in recession. These risks are especially frightening as gauging their possible dire consequences is a difficult, if not impossible, task… particularly as they are all connected and mutually sustaining.

    To round off this already long list, and be certain of the imminence of catastrophic meltdown, the assumption that central banks have already used up all their ammunition is sometimes put forward. In the event of a marked growth slowdown, in the US in particular, it is felt that central banks would lack any means of action.


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  • France - Housing market: Recent developments and outlook for 2016

    Edition January 29, 2016

    In real estate terms, 2015 was a good year. Housing sales rebounded in both the pre-owned and new-build sectors. Prices fell very little and signs of the market firming emerged at year-end. Total mortgage lending picked up, with new lending almost doubling relative to 2014. In fact, it seems to be cyclical, and linked to the level of lending rates and the new-build stimulus plan. Outlook for 2016 is more uncertain.


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