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  • France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

    Edition October 31, 2018

    After an exceptional year in 2017, the housing market has again been sustained in 2018, but is not showing any signs of a bubble or overheating. On the contrary, signs of cooling have been growing, with a slight dip in sales of pre-owned homes, a more marked drop in sales of new-build homes, and a slowdown in prices and mortgage lending. In 2019, the market will continue to slow very gently, with a slight fall-off in transactions and a slowdown of housing prices.

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  • Italy – Economic environment : Under pressure

    Edition 26 October 2018

    The government's single-minded focus on growth as a way of ensuring the sustainability of public accounts is a risky wager. The deficit will rise to 2.4% in 2019 but then fall to 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. Budgetary expansion will occur next year but will be followed by a neutral budgetary stance. Growth projections are brisk, at 1.5% in 2019 (after 1.2% in 2018), 1.6% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021. The European Commission has detected and noted a serious breach of the budgetary policy requirements set out in the Stability and Growth Pact. The Commission is now threatening to initiate procedures against Italy for its excessive deficit.

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  • Germany - Scenario 2018-2019: Heading for a growth slowdown

    Edition October 22, 2018

    After a year of sustained growth in 2017, Germany is now on the path of an expected slowdown of GDP at 1.9% this year and next. Germany benefits from solid domestic demand, driven by the dynamism of private and public consumption. Investment, although weakened by lower margins resulting from higher wage costs, remains the second factor supporting this growth. Net exports, on the other hand, will subtract a few points from GDP growth because of the acceleration of imports compared to exports.

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  • France: 2018-2019 Scenario

    Edition 24 October 2018

    The first half was marked by a certain desynchronisation among the main economic regions. Growth remained upbeat in the United States and fairly stable in the eurozone, while some emerging countries experienced specific difficulties. In France, the growth outlook has been revised down slightly. After 2.3% growth in 2017, we are forecasting further fairly robust growth in 2018 and 2019 at 1.6% a year.

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  • Italy - Scenario 2018-2019: A stabilized growth

    Edition August 1, 2018

    In 2017, Italian growth increased by 1.5%. Following the political events the country has been facing since March, we have revised our forecasts for the years 2018 and 2019 to 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.

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  • France – Scenario 2018-2019

    Edition 25 July 2018

    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, growth stood at around 1% in France. It then accelerated sharply in 2017, to 2.3%. For 2018 and 2019, we expect growth to remain strong, at 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively.

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  • Germany – 2018-2019 Scenario: Q2 2018 Outlook

    Edition July 24, 2018

    Following a first quarter characterized by a marked slowdown in activity, German growth is expected to accelerate slightly in the second quarter. Domestic demand will remain the main driver of growth thanks to sustained private consumption and still positive investment momentum. External demand is faded by the rise of US protectionist barriers that are likely to hit more severely German exporters.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: The end is not yet nigh

    Edition July 10, 2018

    In the Eurozone, the economic slowdown in Q118 has raised a number of questions, often met by overly pessimistic, even alarmist, responses. However, the shock, which can be put down to relatively sluggish exports, does not signal an early end to the growth cycle. There are no crippling constraints on supply, particularly when it comes to the workforce: labour tensions will not derail growth. Growth is subsiding and is coming under threat from external factors, with the tightening of US monetary policy less worrying than the risk of a trade war escalation. In light of the likely retaliation by the US's trading partners (though they would have to be moderate, given the losses such retaliation would entail for the countries concerned), it would be overambitious to put a figure on the potential cost of a war that has yet to take shape fully. A trade war would obviously hamper growth. However, even now, before any escalation has occurred, the potential damage to confidence and the ensuing adverse effect on investment decisions is a real cause for concern, in our view.

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  • Germany – 2018-2019 scenario: Outlook at Q1-2018

    Edition april 20, 2018

    After a strong growth in 2017, we expect activity growth to be also robust in 2018 and a slight slowdown in 2019. The unemployment rate has not yet reached its bottom and underemployed part-time workers represent a potential source of additional workforce to meet the increased demand. Domestic demand remains the main pillar of growth, while external demand may suffer from a more protectionist environment than in the past.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

    Edition April 4, 2018

    In the Eurozone, the recovery phase, accompanied by its share of nice surprises, is now behind us and the economy is settling into its growth phase. The sometimes disappointing findings of the surveys are not flagging up a cyclical reversal, but its natural slowdown. They reflect nothing more than expectations adapting to reality. The confidence of economic agents has become more consistent, thanks to the strength of developments in the real economy. The strength of the fundamentals suggests further sustained growth rates, of close to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with no significant pick-up in inflation. Thus, there is no threat of a monetary emergency and the ECB's monetary policy should very gradually become less accommodative.

    The emerging world should see stable growth of around 4.7% in 2018 – satisfactory without setting pulses racing.

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