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  • Germany – 2018-2019 scenario: Outlook at Q1-2018

    Edition april 20, 2018

    After a strong growth in 2017, we expect activity growth to be also robust in 2018 and a slight slowdown in 2019. The unemployment rate has not yet reached its bottom and underemployed part-time workers represent a potential source of additional workforce to meet the increased demand. Domestic demand remains the main pillar of growth, while external demand may suffer from a more protectionist environment than in the past.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

    Edition April 4, 2018

    In the Eurozone, the recovery phase, accompanied by its share of nice surprises, is now behind us and the economy is settling into its growth phase. The sometimes disappointing findings of the surveys are not flagging up a cyclical reversal, but its natural slowdown. They reflect nothing more than expectations adapting to reality. The confidence of economic agents has become more consistent, thanks to the strength of developments in the real economy. The strength of the fundamentals suggests further sustained growth rates, of close to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with no significant pick-up in inflation. Thus, there is no threat of a monetary emergency and the ECB's monetary policy should very gradually become less accommodative.

    The emerging world should see stable growth of around 4.7% in 2018 – satisfactory without setting pulses racing.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition February 6, 2018

    Highlights: There's a misunderstanding about narrowing the living standards gap in Hungary. In Russia, beware the slowdown. Economic performance was only average in the Middle East and North Africa in 2017, but there are hopes of a recovery in 2018. Sub-Saharan Africa: will 2018 be a better vintage for the region than 2017? No repeat performance in China. In Argentina, if you can't cut inflation, raise the target …

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  • United Kingdom – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

    Edition 26 January 2018

    Brexit will be the dominant theme over the next few years. 2018 will be marked by the negotiations on a transition phase and on the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, while negotiations on the free-trade agreement should begin in 2019. Our central scenario is based on the key assumption that a withdrawal agreement will be reached between the UK and the EU under the terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

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  • France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018

    Edition November 7, 2017

    The housing market grew at a sustained rate in 2017. The market is likely to see a slight slowdown in 2018-2019, however. First off, the new Housing Plan, unveiled in late September, is favourable over time via a supply-side shock, plus a four-year extension to the Pinel scheme and the PTZ interest-free loan. Second, the relative acceleration in prices and the continued slow increase in lending rates will eat into households' ability to purchase.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition October 12, 2017

    Highlights: Heading for a peak in the growth cycle in Central Europe. Uzbek devaluation and the threat of a market feeding frenzy in Central Asia. North Africa and Iran are countries whose currencies are threatened by imbalances. Rumours of a cut in key rates abound in South Africa. India's growth rate has kept on slowing since the start of 2016. Sure, the worst is over for Brazilians, but… is the future any more brilliant?

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  • United kingdom – The BoE points to a November hike

    Edition September 20, 2017

    The Bank of England gave a clear sign at its September monetary policy meeting that a rate hike may occur as soon as the next meeting in November. Subsequent speeches by Carney and Vlieghe have reinforced that call. The BoE appears more confident that underlying inflationary pressures are building gradually, on the back of a continued erosion of labour-market slack and supportive global growth. We adjust our central-case scenario to one rate hike of 25 bps in November.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition June 7, 2017

    Highlights: What changes are forecast for Turkey's current account balance? Which Middle East and North Africa countries are over-indebted? Côte d'Ivoire experiences mutiny episode 2. Heading for a slowdown in China. Inflation picking up in Mexico.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 11, 2017

    Highlights: Poland's budget deficit was up in the first quarter. Turkey has switched political regime. Qatar's economy is benefitting from the virtues of a counter-cyclical policy. The plummeting price of cocoa is likely to have severely adverse consequences in Côte-d'Ivoire and Ghana. Chinese GDP growth picked up slightly in the first quarter, to 6.9% year-on-year. In Brazil, interest rates are falling and inflation is slowing (and contrariwise).

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2016-2017: That elusive missing link

    Edition October 3, 2016

    At a time when world trade is flagging – for reasons that are as much structural as cyclical – and when it is no longer a growth driver, households continue to be growth's chief pillar. They consume and they invest. Following a period of deleveraging, the improving labour market, the steady – if sluggish – rise in wages, positive wealth effects and low inflation – which is driving gains in purchasing power – constitute a series of fundamentals that, so far, is proving resilient.

    Although the drivers do not all have the same power, they should nevertheless allow both the US and European economies to grow at a rate of 1.6% in 2016. That rate is respectively close to and much higher than those economies' potential growth rates of 1.6-1.7% in the US and 1% in the Eurozone. That said, we cannot see any recovery in productive investment, which is clearly not at the level we could have hoped for. It is also futile to hope for a sharp increase any time soon in what (in the olden days…) used to constitute a ‘growth engine'.

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