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  • Italy - Scenario 2018-2019: A stabilized growth

    Edition August 1, 2018

    In 2017, Italian growth increased by 1.5%. Following the political events the country has been facing since March, we have revised our forecasts for the years 2018 and 2019 to 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

    Edition April 4, 2018

    In the Eurozone, the recovery phase, accompanied by its share of nice surprises, is now behind us and the economy is settling into its growth phase. The sometimes disappointing findings of the surveys are not flagging up a cyclical reversal, but its natural slowdown. They reflect nothing more than expectations adapting to reality. The confidence of economic agents has become more consistent, thanks to the strength of developments in the real economy. The strength of the fundamentals suggests further sustained growth rates, of close to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with no significant pick-up in inflation. Thus, there is no threat of a monetary emergency and the ECB's monetary policy should very gradually become less accommodative.

    The emerging world should see stable growth of around 4.7% in 2018 – satisfactory without setting pulses racing.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition February 6, 2018

    Highlights: There's a misunderstanding about narrowing the living standards gap in Hungary. In Russia, beware the slowdown. Economic performance was only average in the Middle East and North Africa in 2017, but there are hopes of a recovery in 2018. Sub-Saharan Africa: will 2018 be a better vintage for the region than 2017? No repeat performance in China. In Argentina, if you can't cut inflation, raise the target …

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  • Italy – Conjoncture: Please, do not hinder the virtuous circle

    Edition January 18, 2018

    The consolidation of productive investment and a swifter decrease in unemployment feed into a more autonomous growth. This benefits the banking sector by sustaining restructuring efforts, more than ever dominated by a race to reduce NPLs. On the political front, the scenario of a post-election coalition between Forza Italia, the Centre and M. Renzi's democratic Party is loosing strength due to the latter's weakening. 

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  • France – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

    Edition January 17, 2018

    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, French growth was close to 1%. Growth accelerated sharply in 2017 and is expected to come out at 1.9%. We expect growth to continue at a robust pace in 2018 and 2019, at 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, but without accelerating on 2017.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Cruel Imagination...

    Edition December 21, 2017

    There is still no threat of inflationary pressure. By end-2018, inflation is forecast to reach 2.2% in the US and 1.4% in the Eurozone. Central banks are not lagging behind the real cycle, so there is no monetary urgency. Monetary policies, which are accommodative despite actual or planned tightening, are underpinning growth. The resorption of public imbalances is made easier by low interest rates and there is no reason why rates should rise suddenly. We continue to forecast a very slow increase in long-term rates and in real rates, which look set to remain at record-low levels or even in negative territory.

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  • Eurozone – Outlook 2017-2018: Reconfiguration of expectations

    Edition November 10, 2017

    Eurozone growth is strengthening and was moving along at an annual rate of over 2%. The Eurozone thus looks set for another year of above-potential growth driven by a favourable global environment. These positive surprises as regards growth could encourage economic agents to upgrade their prospects, having in recent years been used to their successive downward revisions. However, the euro's recent appreciation has brought some shadow on this perfectly justified optimism-tinted scenario.

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  • France – 2017-2018 Scenario: The economic improvement confirmed

    Edition 24 October 2017

    In 2016, for the third consecutive year, French growth came in at around 1% (1.1% in 2016). In 2017 and 2018, we are expecting to see an acceleration, with real GDP growth of respectively 1.7% and 1.6%. Tangible signs of an economic improvement have been perceptible for several months. The domestic drivers of recovery are more dynamic than we initially forecast. A self-sustaining growth cycle seems to be settling in.

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  • France – Labour market reform: Towards greater flexibility

    Edition October 16, 2017

    The long-term trend in the French labour market is a rising unemployment rate and the development of "mass unemployment". Despite going into reverse in the second half of 2015, the unemployment rate remains high. In view of this, the provisions in the reform of the French labour code are designed to make the labour market more flexible while guaranteeing workers some protection.

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  • France - Draft Budget Law for 2018: Public deficit reduced to 2.6% of GDP

    Edition October 5, 2017

    The public deficit would reach 2.6% of GDP in 2018 (after 2.9% in 2017). The public debt ratio is expected to stabilise at 96.8% of GDP. The support measures include €10bn (net) of tax cuts and the first component of the major public investment plan. They are part of a supply-side policy and aim at a sustainable recovery of investment and employment. Significant savings on expenditures (€15bn) enable both the funding of these measures and the reducing of the deficits.

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