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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition November 9, 2017
    Highlights: How to interpret the populist choice of Czech voters? In Algeria, monetising the budget deficit is a dangerous thing. In South Africa, the Finance Minister has admitted to Parliament that the country's deficit was set to widen. In China, Xi Jinping is almost more powerful than Mao. The Argentinian government has scored political successes but poor economic results.

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  • US- Prepping the markets for a hike

    Edition February 16, 2017

    US economic performance is likely to warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate. Chair Yellen reiterated her view that "waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession."

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition November 8, 2016

    Highlights: Russia's Central Bank is on the horns of dilemmas. Turkey is seeing a very significant worsening of its corruption indicators. In Tunisia, the economy is ailing despite the aid, but there is some political hope.  In South Africa, the budget has been revised in a toxic atmosphere. In China, the Communist Party's Plenum was held under the banner of transparency... Brazil cuts its key rate for the first time since 2012 (but only by 25bp).

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  • UK and GBP in times of 'hard Brexit'

    Edition 4 November 2016

    Fears about 'hard Brexit' have escalated in recent days and that has pushed GBP to fresh multi-year lows. We expect the concerns to linger and lower our GBP forecasts. We expect GBP/USD to finish the year at 1.23 and EUR/GBP at 0.90. Further out, we expect a cautious recovery because we believe that 'hard Brexit' will be avoided and that the UK will able to secure an enhanced free trade agreem ent with the EU in the coming years.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition October 12, 2016

    Highlights: Hungary's sovereign paper "investment grade" rating has been reinstated. What is the nature of the Russian regime? In Egypt, support from multilateral agencies has helped boost reserves, but the conditionalities are painful. Q2 external demand has been saved from recession in South Africa. India has adopted a law designed to unify the tax system for goods and services at national level. Mexico: why is the peso so weak and the key rate so high?

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  • UK – The BoE reveals its 'sledgehammer' to crack the nut of a Brexit-induced slowdown

    Edition August 5, 2016

    On 4 August, the Bank of England lowered its key policy rate by 25bp to 0.25% as a response to the expectation of a Brexit-induced weakness in demand. Furthermore, it delivered a package of unconventional measures aiming to provide additional support to growth. These included a restart of the purchases of government bonds to the tune of GBP60bn, the purchase of corporate bonds (up to GBP10bn) and a new Term Funding Scheme.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition June 7, 2016

    Highlights: Kazakhstan is in recession for the first time since 2009. Hungary's sovereign rating is at long last back at investment grade. In Algeria, the depletion of the Revenue Regulation Fund has triggered a rise in public debt. Mozambique looks increasingly likely to default on its sovereign debt. April in China: keep your eye on the ball… The Termer government has political difficulties in Brazil.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2016-2017: Keeping a sense of balance

    Edition March 31, 2016

    There's a lengthy list of risks piling up upstream of our economic scenario. In addition to the geopolitical and political risks, consider also the following concerns: collapsing Chinese growth; a brutal, uncontrolled depreciation of its currency by Beijing; commodity prices plummeting again; a sharp slowdown in US growth; a sharp increase in corporate bankruptcies in the US oil sector; Eurozone deflation; and the inevitable miring of the emerging world in recession. These risks are especially frightening as gauging their possible dire consequences is a difficult, if not impossible, task… particularly as they are all connected and mutually sustaining.

    To round off this already long list, and be certain of the imminence of catastrophic meltdown, the assumption that central banks have already used up all their ammunition is sometimes put forward. In the event of a marked growth slowdown, in the US in particular, it is felt that central banks would lack any means of action.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition December 1, 2015

    Highlights: What consequences will recent developments have on Turkey? Rating agency opinions of Saudi Arabia are starting to diverge. The ANC no longer feeds the dreams of South African youth. Routed in India's general elections? Latin America sees a virtually across-the-board rise in key rates.

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  • USA – Piecing together the productivity puzzle: What's behind the slowdown?

    Edition July 20, 2015

    US annual productivity growth has slowed since the 1970s, with a pronounced slowdown occurring during the recovery from the Great Recession. Weak productivity growth appears to reflect a combination of cyclical and structural factors as well as measurement issues.

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