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  • ECB: think different

    Edition September 9, 2016

    The ECB did not officially extend QE, but they clearly pointed towards a change in the modalities over the near-term ("tasked the relevant committee"); we see it as a step towards an official extension in October or in December this year, along with an easing of purchase modalities, probably a removal of the deposit rate floor.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 3, 2016

    Highlights: What are the consequences of devaluations in the Caucuses and Central Asia? In Serbia, the outcome of elections came as no surprise. Saudi Arabia is faced with challenges as it abandons its rent-driven model. Mozambique discloses that it has hidden over USD1.3 billion of debt. South Korea experiences a bout of weakness. Brazil moves towards impeachment.

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  • ECB - "I find your lack of faith disturbing"

    Edition April 22, 2016

    The ECB released the details about the CSPP. However, it will "be mindful of the potential impact of its purchases on market liquidity". We expect the ECB to purchase EUR4bn a month on average. Mario Draghi gave more details on other monetary policy tools. Above all, M. Draghi has fiercely defended the ECB's independence and reiterated the crucial need for governments to do more on structural reforms and growth-friendly composition of public finances.

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  • Eurozone – ECB: no silver bullet for lending

    Edition 5 April 2016

    We look back at the ECB's 10 March announcement, especially in connection with the TLTRO 2 operations and analyse their implications from the banks' viewpoint. This new programme should elicit more interest than TLTRO 1 and help to revive the transmission of monetary policy on lending interest rates. But this in no way guarantees its effectiveness in re-launching lending to businesses.

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  • ECB: Hey! What did you expect?

    December 4, 2015

    The ECB cut the deposit rate by 10bp, to  0.3%. It extended QE to March 2017 or beyond, if necessary. Those measures strongly disappointed the markets, which expected more QE or more of a cut. In our view this is the good amount of stimulus that is needed by the Eurozone: soft but prolonged accommodation.

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  • Eurozone - QE impact indicator - November 2015 : Flash in the pan?

    Edition November 10, 2015

    Our Quantitative Easing impact indicator continued to edge down in October, following the virtually across-the-board deterioration in monetary and financial conditions observed over the summer. The monetary policy transmission channels that most immediately responded to the launch of the policy at the start of the year are those that have deteriorated most.

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  • ECB - calibrated support

    Edition July 17, 2015

    Yesterday's decision by the ECB to increase ELA, even incrementally, is a positive surprise in terms of timing and a supportive signal to Greece. On the crucial assumption that Greece remains a member of the Eurozone, the ECB should continue to do just as much as it takes to keep Greek banks afloat through a further carefully calibrated ELA lift (as well as potentially loosening collateral haircuts) starting next week.

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  • ECB preview: every reason to be cautious

    Edition June 1, 2015

    We expect the ECB to stay the course at its 3 June policy meeting, insisting once again on its firm commitment to full QE implementation. New hints at QE flexibility would help the Governing Council adjust to more adverse market conditions in the future. While a 'rule-based' ECB has every reason to be strict with Greece, it is still unlikely to be the one cutting off liquidity to Greek banks.

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  • ECB's liquidity move pressures Greek government

    Edition February 5, 2015
    Sticking with its (self-imposed) rules on the eligibility of collateral, the ECB decided to suspend normal refinancing to Greek banks, putting maximum pressure on the Greek government and Eurozone policymakers to reach a deal by the end of the month. The bottom line is that the ECB decision is a risky, albeit calculated political move.

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  • Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016

    Edition December 2014

    2014 was a disappointing year for the Eurozone. The more upbeat expectations observed in late 2013 did not materialise in a recovery that has turned out to be more laboured than expected. The slight pick-up in activity in Q3 (+0.2% QoQ after +0.1% in Q2) did not radically alter the flat profile of activity since the spring. The forecast 0.9% growth rate for 2014 implies a new widening of the growth gap with the other large economies.

    This is because the EMU area has shown considerable vulnerability to the drop in emerging-economy imports. The divergence in growth levels among EU member states has remained significant, despite the slowing of the core economies and a recovery in some peripheral countries. The underlying imbalances that are driving this divergence cannot easily be absorbed in a low-growth, low-inflation environment, and this will certainly remain true out to our forecasting horizon.

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