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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition November 9, 2017
    Highlights: How to interpret the populist choice of Czech voters? In Algeria, monetising the budget deficit is a dangerous thing. In South Africa, the Finance Minister has admitted to Parliament that the country's deficit was set to widen. In China, Xi Jinping is almost more powerful than Mao. The Argentinian government has scored political successes but poor economic results.

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  • Understand Qatar crisis : Economist's infographic

    Edition 26 September 2017

    Qatar crisis which blew up three months ago seems sometimes difficult to understand from abroad. Actually, it is part of a global context made of old geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This Infographic summarize in a very simple way the origins of the political crisis and its regional implications.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition March 29, 2017

    Highlights: Poland is forecast to emerge from deflation in 2017. In Russia, will Mr Putin continue to be patient? What role do women play in the Middle East and North Africa labour market? Nigeria is experiencing a liquidity crisis. In China, things are kicking off quite well? In Brazil, the Attorney General spectacularly intervened in the Odebrecht affair.

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  • ECB: think different

    Edition September 9, 2016

    The ECB did not officially extend QE, but they clearly pointed towards a change in the modalities over the near-term ("tasked the relevant committee"); we see it as a step towards an official extension in October or in December this year, along with an easing of purchase modalities, probably a removal of the deposit rate floor.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 3, 2016

    Highlights: What are the consequences of devaluations in the Caucuses and Central Asia? In Serbia, the outcome of elections came as no surprise. Saudi Arabia is faced with challenges as it abandons its rent-driven model. Mozambique discloses that it has hidden over USD1.3 billion of debt. South Korea experiences a bout of weakness. Brazil moves towards impeachment.

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  • ECB - "I find your lack of faith disturbing"

    Edition April 22, 2016

    The ECB released the details about the CSPP. However, it will "be mindful of the potential impact of its purchases on market liquidity". We expect the ECB to purchase EUR4bn a month on average. Mario Draghi gave more details on other monetary policy tools. Above all, M. Draghi has fiercely defended the ECB's independence and reiterated the crucial need for governments to do more on structural reforms and growth-friendly composition of public finances.

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  • Eurozone – ECB: no silver bullet for lending

    Edition 5 April 2016

    We look back at the ECB's 10 March announcement, especially in connection with the TLTRO 2 operations and analyse their implications from the banks' viewpoint. This new programme should elicit more interest than TLTRO 1 and help to revive the transmission of monetary policy on lending interest rates. But this in no way guarantees its effectiveness in re-launching lending to businesses.

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  • ECB: Hey! What did you expect?

    December 4, 2015

    The ECB cut the deposit rate by 10bp, to  0.3%. It extended QE to March 2017 or beyond, if necessary. Those measures strongly disappointed the markets, which expected more QE or more of a cut. In our view this is the good amount of stimulus that is needed by the Eurozone: soft but prolonged accommodation.

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  • Eurozone - QE impact indicator - November 2015 : Flash in the pan?

    Edition November 10, 2015

    Our Quantitative Easing impact indicator continued to edge down in October, following the virtually across-the-board deterioration in monetary and financial conditions observed over the summer. The monetary policy transmission channels that most immediately responded to the launch of the policy at the start of the year are those that have deteriorated most.

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  • ECB - calibrated support

    Edition July 17, 2015

    Yesterday's decision by the ECB to increase ELA, even incrementally, is a positive surprise in terms of timing and a supportive signal to Greece. On the crucial assumption that Greece remains a member of the Eurozone, the ECB should continue to do just as much as it takes to keep Greek banks afloat through a further carefully calibrated ELA lift (as well as potentially loosening collateral haircuts) starting next week.

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