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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 29, 2018

    Highlights: What is to be done with the Balkans, Europe's enfants terribles? Is there a risk of a hard landing in Turkey? Saudi Arabia's authorities are concerned by the sharp rise in unemployment. Moody's has downgraded Angola's sovereign debt rating by a notch. In India, victory leaves a bitter taste. Argentina is playing an old, hopeless and costly game.

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  • France – 2018-2019 scenario: Robust growth in 2018-2019 despite increased recruitment difficulties

    Edition May 2, 2018

    Q1 GDP showed slowing growth. This was expected and was justified by one-off factors; this does not suggest, however, that the French economy has begun a cyclical downswing. Over 2018 as a whole, the pace of growth is forecast to remain robust. France is experiencing increased recruitment difficulties that reveal a level of activity that it now nearing its potential, and a problem of labour suitability.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition April 10, 2018

    Highlights: Slovenia is the good student of the European Union. Despite weakening, the Qatar economy is proving fairly resilient to the embargo. The IMF welcomes Nigeria's emergence from recession but warns about an economy that is still convalescent. China has a new vice Prime Minister. As a sign, among other things, of culpable interference between the Argentinian state and the Central Bank, inflation is picking up.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

    Edition April 4, 2018

    In the Eurozone, the recovery phase, accompanied by its share of nice surprises, is now behind us and the economy is settling into its growth phase. The sometimes disappointing findings of the surveys are not flagging up a cyclical reversal, but its natural slowdown. They reflect nothing more than expectations adapting to reality. The confidence of economic agents has become more consistent, thanks to the strength of developments in the real economy. The strength of the fundamentals suggests further sustained growth rates, of close to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with no significant pick-up in inflation. Thus, there is no threat of a monetary emergency and the ECB's monetary policy should very gradually become less accommodative.

    The emerging world should see stable growth of around 4.7% in 2018 – satisfactory without setting pulses racing.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition March 7, 2018

    Highlights: It's not growth that is missing in Central and Eastern Europe... In Saudi Arabia, there are doubts about the rebalancing of the growth model. In Sub-Saharan Africa, dependence on commodity exports remains strong and raises the issue of economic diversification. In India exchange rate risk is higher, Brazil delivers a kaleidoscope of data for a poorly enthusiastic panorama.

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  • Political issues – Populisms: The trap closes in the Czech Republic

    Edition February 19, 2018

    How to explain the shift to populism in Central Europe? And how to explain that it is being implemented by the same political agents who contributed to establishing democratic regimes after the Iron Curtain came down? The recent re-election of the populist candidate Miloš Zeman to the Czech presidency is causing ripples well beyond his own country because it highlights a phenomenon that concerns Central Europe as a whole.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition February 6, 2018

    Highlights: There's a misunderstanding about narrowing the living standards gap in Hungary. In Russia, beware the slowdown. Economic performance was only average in the Middle East and North Africa in 2017, but there are hopes of a recovery in 2018. Sub-Saharan Africa: will 2018 be a better vintage for the region than 2017? No repeat performance in China. In Argentina, if you can't cut inflation, raise the target …

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  • France – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

    Edition January 17, 2018

    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, French growth was close to 1%. Growth accelerated sharply in 2017 and is expected to come out at 1.9%. We expect growth to continue at a robust pace in 2018 and 2019, at 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, but without accelerating on 2017.

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  • Germany – 2017-2018 scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

    Edition January 17, 2018

    Our scenario for the German activity is based on a solid growth of 2.6% in 2017 and 2018. It's mainly supported by a strong domestic demand driven by both private consumption and productive investment. However, the surge in net exports also seems to contribute more sustainably to this phase of expansion of the economic cycle.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Cruel Imagination...

    Edition December 21, 2017

    There is still no threat of inflationary pressure. By end-2018, inflation is forecast to reach 2.2% in the US and 1.4% in the Eurozone. Central banks are not lagging behind the real cycle, so there is no monetary urgency. Monetary policies, which are accommodative despite actual or planned tightening, are underpinning growth. The resorption of public imbalances is made easier by low interest rates and there is no reason why rates should rise suddenly. We continue to forecast a very slow increase in long-term rates and in real rates, which look set to remain at record-low levels or even in negative territory.

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