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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition December 13, 2017
    Highlights: In Romania, overheating could signal a cyclical downturn. In Russia, the latest growth statistics show a dip. GDP growth is picking up in Nigeria. Growth is firming up In India. In Chile, the first round of the presidential election saw the investors' favourite poll a disappointing score.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition November 9, 2017
    Highlights: How to interpret the populist choice of Czech voters? In Algeria, monetising the budget deficit is a dangerous thing. In South Africa, the Finance Minister has admitted to Parliament that the country's deficit was set to widen. In China, Xi Jinping is almost more powerful than Mao. The Argentinian government has scored political successes but poor economic results.

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  • Germany – 2017-2018 Scenario: Outlook in Q3-2017

    Edition October 2017

    Domestic demand remains the main factor supporting German activity in 2017 and 2018. The acceleration of consumption and investment this year is being confirmed over the quarters, while the export surge supported by world trade is counterbalanced by the rise of imports that are more dynamic. Our scenario expects a solid GDP growth of + 2.2% in 2017 and + 2.1% in 2018.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition October 12, 2017

    Highlights: Heading for a peak in the growth cycle in Central Europe. Uzbek devaluation and the threat of a market feeding frenzy in Central Asia. North Africa and Iran are countries whose currencies are threatened by imbalances. Rumours of a cut in key rates abound in South Africa. India's growth rate has kept on slowing since the start of 2016. Sure, the worst is over for Brazilians, but… is the future any more brilliant?

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Inflation, the long absence

    Edition October 4, 2017

    Because interest rate cuts alone seemed incapable of fending off deflation, the central banks implemented unconventional monetary policies. Now that the deflation threat has been averted, the "heterodox" monetary arrangements will be progressively tightened. And while inflation is still very shy of the target, interest rate hikes are being deferred or brought in at snail"s pace.

    The issue of pace is essential. If inflation accelerates due to an exogenous shock or ends up resuming but with an unusual delay, it could come after the real cycle has peaked suggesting that any central bank action will be too late, so that tightening would be pro-cyclical. If inflation does not pick up to any significant degree, perhaps it might be time to revise inflation targets down or even overhaul the system of inflation-targeting completely, at least in its "pure" version, when the inflation target is not "even" combined with an employment target.

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  • Understand Qatar crisis : Economist's infographic

    Edition 26 September 2017

    Qatar crisis which blew up three months ago seems sometimes difficult to understand from abroad. Actually, it is part of a global context made of old geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This Infographic summarize in a very simple way the origins of the political crisis and its regional implications.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition July 19, 2017

    Highlights: In the Balkans, the Trieste meeting raised the question of the creation of a common market and/or political issues. The crisis in the Gulf States will have a negative, long-term impact on the image of the GCC. Two interesting figures were published in South Africa: inflation and the Q1 2017 current account deficit. Chinese shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have been included in the composite MSCI Emerging Markets Index. In Brazil, Michel Temer is battling for his political survival.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Pleasant surprises of a slow-burn cycle

    Edition July 3, 2017

    How do you best describe a cycle that ends up delivering pleasant surprises? Answer: by qualifying it, so to speak, as a slow-burn cycle. The classic sequence of events is falling into place, albeit very slowly. It is as if it were necessary – in addition to the obvious need to absorb excess capacity – to remove all doubts before taking any decisions. Household consumption is still the main driver of growth. But investment is finally beginning to show signs of life. The labour market has finally started to improve. And growth has finally started to become more job-rich. Meanwhile wages and prices are proving to be surprisingly well-behaved. This is a sign both of excess capacity, which is proving to be hard to absorb, and, without a doubt, structural change, what with the growth of the service economy and of ‘uberisation' as drivers of competition, which are helping to keep wages down, especially in economies that are still convalescing after the crisis.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition June 7, 2017

    Highlights: What changes are forecast for Turkey's current account balance? Which Middle East and North Africa countries are over-indebted? Côte d'Ivoire experiences mutiny episode 2. Heading for a slowdown in China. Inflation picking up in Mexico.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 11, 2017

    Highlights: Poland's budget deficit was up in the first quarter. Turkey has switched political regime. Qatar's economy is benefitting from the virtues of a counter-cyclical policy. The plummeting price of cocoa is likely to have severely adverse consequences in Côte-d'Ivoire and Ghana. Chinese GDP growth picked up slightly in the first quarter, to 6.9% year-on-year. In Brazil, interest rates are falling and inflation is slowing (and contrariwise).

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