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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition June 7, 2017

    Highlights: What changes are forecast for Turkey's current account balance? Which Middle East and North Africa countries are over-indebted? Côte d'Ivoire experiences mutiny episode 2. Heading for a slowdown in China. Inflation picking up in Mexico.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 11, 2017

    Highlights: Poland's budget deficit was up in the first quarter. Turkey has switched political regime. Qatar's economy is benefitting from the virtues of a counter-cyclical policy. The plummeting price of cocoa is likely to have severely adverse consequences in Côte-d'Ivoire and Ghana. Chinese GDP growth picked up slightly in the first quarter, to 6.9% year-on-year. In Brazil, interest rates are falling and inflation is slowing (and contrariwise).

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Aligning timescales

    Edition April 3, 2017

    Whether we're talking about Brexit or, above all, the election of Donald Trump, recent political changes have undoubtedly been shocks. It is no longer simply a question of shifting the cursor of economic policy towards a little less state, less taxation and less social protection. Instead, the aim is to cure the ills of an ailing society by designating scapegoats and demonising the ‘rest of the world' in particular.

    The objectives are ambitious. Without its even being necessary to judge the effectiveness of the solutions proposed, suffice it to say that they are above all radical. So radical, paradoxically, that they are not materialising as rapidly as might be hoped by those betting on their effectiveness or as might be feared by those who consider them inappropriate and dangerous.

    In the short term, the direct impact on the real economy and on agents' behaviour is minor, because institutional obstacles must first be overcome and/or the assent of national parliaments obtained.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition March 29, 2017

    Highlights: Poland is forecast to emerge from deflation in 2017. In Russia, will Mr Putin continue to be patient? What role do women play in the Middle East and North Africa labour market? Nigeria is experiencing a liquidity crisis. In China, things are kicking off quite well? In Brazil, the Attorney General spectacularly intervened in the Odebrecht affair.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition February 28, 2017
    Highlights: In Russia, the growth trend is difficult to analyse. In Poland, growth forecasts are uncertain. In Egypt, inflation was up in early 2017, but is forecast to fall in the second half. South Africa's PMI was up in January. What are Asian sensitivities to international trade? In Brazil, the real's strengthening is absurd and dangerous.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition January 31, 2017

    Highlights: Azerbaijan is at the mercy of oil... Serbia and Kosovo have awoken their old demons. In Saudi Arabia, a reformist 2017 budget has been drawn up on the basis of Brent at USD 50/bbl. In Côte d'Ivoire, the crisis has multiple faces. In China, 2017 will be a year of challenges. Is Mexico staring at the end of NAFTA?

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  • United kingdom – So ambitious it could prove unrealistic

    Edition 20 January, 2017

    On 17 January, UK PM Theresa May clarified the broad objectives of her government's plan for the Brexit. The UK will leave the Single Market and the customs union. It will seek a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union and ambitious trade deals with third countries. May also promised a parliamentary vote on the final terms of the Brexit.

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  • Emerging Countries - Monthly News Digest

    Edition January 4, 2017

    Highlights: Doubts persist as to Turkey's potential for growth. In Serbia, the public finances are improving faster than expected. In Egypt, the new floating exchange rate regime has devalued the pound by 57% in 12 months and triggered a new bout of inflation. In South Africa, the economy is flagging in a gloomy climate. Is China moving towards making fewer foreign acquisitions? GDP has again fallen in the third quarter in Brazil.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: "Hope is a risk you have to take"

    Edition December 20, 2016

    US risks are likely to materialise in an increase in long-term rates, an appreciating dollar, and, if the expansionary fiscal policy suddenly propels the nominal GDP growth rate well beyond its potential rate, in a far more aggressive monetary policy, especially from 2018 onwards. In 2017, the Eurozone is less likely to be impacted by real transmission channels than by financial ones, due to the tightening of financial then monetary conditions in the United States, resulting in upside pressure on interest rates, to which will be added pressures from its own political risk. In this way it will be up to the ECB alone to provide minimal visibility and steer interest rates. It will need to soothe anxious, volatile markets with the hope that, in 2018, once those national political deadlines are behind it, Europe will exist in a manner other than through its monetary policy alone.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition November 8, 2016

    Highlights: Russia's Central Bank is on the horns of dilemmas. Turkey is seeing a very significant worsening of its corruption indicators. In Tunisia, the economy is ailing despite the aid, but there is some political hope.  In South Africa, the budget has been revised in a toxic atmosphere. In China, the Communist Party's Plenum was held under the banner of transparency... Brazil cuts its key rate for the first time since 2012 (but only by 25bp).

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