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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: prevention better than cure

    Edition April 15, 2019

    In the US, the strength of the labour market (where the unemployment rate is at an all-time low despite the fact that the participation rate is not falling) has finally led to a rise in average wages, which, without any increase in inflation, will eat into firms' margins and productive investment. The contribution from net external demand is likely to be only very slightly negative, enabling growth to edge down ‘gently' towards its potential level of 2%.

    In the Eurozone, a marked drop in foreign demand is behind the sharp slowdown in growth. The slowdown has triggered fears that Eurozone growth, which came late to the phase of swift expansion, could brutally and prematurely drop off. But, as wages take up the slack from jobs, demand from households (consumption and housing investment) is proving resilient. Firms' high margin ratios and continued easy access to financing are conducive to investment. On the other hand, the outlook for any recovery in external demand is uncertain, and it is the incentive for investment that is giving way. Failing any recovery in exports, growth seems unlikely to exceed 1.2% in 2019.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: Economic & financial forecasts

    Edition April, 12 2019

    Aperiodic - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts

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  • Italy – Economic environment: Macroeconomic and banking review

    Edition 9 April 2019

    Following a 0.1% downturn in Q3 2018 and Q4 2018, Italy is officially in a technical recession, a term signifying a decrease in GDP over two consecutive quarters. GDP growth in 2018 thus came out at 0.9%, down sharply on the 1.7% reported in 2017. Our central scenario is based on a recovery in activity, especially in industry, starting in Q2 2019, and on a renewed positive contribution from domestic demand. However, the growth overhang in 2019 from Q4 2018 is negative (-0.1%) and will limit GDP growth to an annual average of 0.1% in 2019.

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  • Germany – Scenario 2019-2020: moving towards a normalised growth rate

    Edition January 23, 2019
    In Germany, GDP growth slowed markedly in 2018 (+1.5% annual average, after +2.5% last year). Activity should conserve a moderate growth rate of +1.3% in 2019 and the following year. German growth will continue to be driven by robust domestic demand, fuelled by both private consumption and investment. External demand will nevertheless continue to weigh on growth but to a lesser extent.

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  • France – 2019-2020 Scenario: more dynamic purchasing power but growth slowdown confirmed

    Edition January 22, 2019

    In France, growth has slowed significantly compared with the previous year. Following the publication of the Q3 GDP figure, the growth carryover came out at 1.5% in 2018, compared with 2.3% in 2017. Q1 was effectively disappointing, with growth then firming up slightly in Q3. That said, it is likely to return to a more modest rate at the end of the year, largely due to the effects of the Gilets Jaunes crisis. Going forward, we are forecasting a likely similar annual growth rate in 2019, of 1.6%.

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  • Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: plenty of twists and turns to negotiate cautiously

    Edition December 21, 2018

    In the Eurozone, against a backdrop of an accommodative monetary policy and a fiscal policy that is making a positive contribution to growth, the still-robust nature of fundamentals points to the maturity of the cycle but not its imminent demise. Supply-side pressures, which emerged at the peak of the cycle in late 2017, have progressively faded. They no longer seem able to generate the kind of margin erosion that would trigger a sudden downturn. Eurozone growth, which is fated to shift gradually to a pace more in line with its estimated 1.5% potential, was following a normal path – namely that of a slowdown – falling from an annualised 2.8% in summer 2017 to 2.2% in spring 2018. Since the summer, however, the deceleration has gathered pace and the still-favourable information provided by the hard figures is being disputed by the worsening sentiment derived from the surveys.

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  • France – What are the economic consequences of the Gilets Jaunes crisis?

    Edition 20 December 2018

    The "Gilets Jaunes" crisis affects growth in Q4 2018, revised to +0,2% qoq from +0,4%. In the face of this crisis and the demands of the "Gilets Jaunes", two sets of social support measures were announced. These two sets of measures, which represent around €10 billion, will result in a significant additional gain in purchasing power of 0.7% in 2019. Consumption will be more sustained, and GDP will increase more strongly than initially forecast, +1,8% yoy in 2019. However, the deficit-to-GDP ratio is revised upwards significantly for 2019, from 2.8% to 3.3%.

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  • China – Beyond the financial risk

    Edition 6 December 2018

    Chinese debt has been a major topic over the past few years. And not without reason, as it entails a risk of financial instability that is real, despite the existence of buffers. But possibly overly much so, to the point of overshadowing the rest. However, beyond the financial risk, there are also other risks, questions and uncertainties, linked to the recent political and institutional developments, as well as the deterioration of relations with the United States.

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  • France – Pensions: The state of play and future reform issues

    Edition December 3, 2018

    The reforms in the 2000s warded off the risk of a severe deterioration in the pension systems deficit. The financial balance, which is currently close to equilibrium, is likely to remain so in the short term. It is felt to be positive in favourable scenarios, but would again go into deficit, by 1-1.5% of GDP a year from 2030 in the more cautious scenarios. A new pensions reform has been announced whose prime objective is to roll out a universal regime that would be clearer and fairer. It would still be a pay-as-you-go system but would shift completely to a points-based regime.

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  • Italy – Economic environment : Under pressure

    Edition 26 October 2018

    The government's single-minded focus on growth as a way of ensuring the sustainability of public accounts is a risky wager. The deficit will rise to 2.4% in 2019 but then fall to 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. Budgetary expansion will occur next year but will be followed by a neutral budgetary stance. Growth projections are brisk, at 1.5% in 2019 (after 1.2% in 2018), 1.6% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021. The European Commission has detected and noted a serious breach of the budgetary policy requirements set out in the Stability and Growth Pact. The Commission is now threatening to initiate procedures against Italy for its excessive deficit.

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