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  • Saudi Arabia – The rentier model in an era of reform and regional crisis

    Edition August 1, 2017

    The lasting drop in the oil price to around 50 dollars a barrel is undermining the deeply rentier Saudi economy, which derives 90% of its tax receipts. A huge long-term structural reform plan ("Vision 2030") is ongoing to wean the country off its rentier economy. It is extremely ambitious, especially in its social components, where the challenges are greatest. However, the political and geopolitical environment is a source of growing concern.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition July 19, 2017

    Highlights: In the Balkans, the Trieste meeting raised the question of the creation of a common market and/or political issues. The crisis in the Gulf States will have a negative, long-term impact on the image of the GCC. Two interesting figures were published in South Africa: inflation and the Q1 2017 current account deficit. Chinese shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have been included in the composite MSCI Emerging Markets Index. In Brazil, Michel Temer is battling for his political survival.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Pleasant surprises of a slow-burn cycle

    Edition July 3, 2017

    How do you best describe a cycle that ends up delivering pleasant surprises? Answer: by qualifying it, so to speak, as a slow-burn cycle. The classic sequence of events is falling into place, albeit very slowly. It is as if it were necessary – in addition to the obvious need to absorb excess capacity – to remove all doubts before taking any decisions. Household consumption is still the main driver of growth. But investment is finally beginning to show signs of life. The labour market has finally started to improve. And growth has finally started to become more job-rich. Meanwhile wages and prices are proving to be surprisingly well-behaved. This is a sign both of excess capacity, which is proving to be hard to absorb, and, without a doubt, structural change, what with the growth of the service economy and of ‘uberisation' as drivers of competition, which are helping to keep wages down, especially in economies that are still convalescing after the crisis.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

    Edition June 30, 2017

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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  • Dove profusion

    Edition June 8, 2017

    There are too many questions, there is no 'one solution', there is no core inflation, there is growth celebration. And an ECB that has provided a profusion of dovish elements to make markets feel, to make markets know that, despite the fact that the wording of the forward guidance changed, the ECB will remain on the path of an accommodative stance for a prolonged period of time.

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  • France – Macroeconomic scenario 2017-2018 : A modest recovery but with signs of improvement

    Edition May 23, 2017

    In 2016, over the full year, French growth came out at 1.1%, a pace very similar to that of 2015 (1.2%), and was therefore disappointing despite that much vaunted "alignment of the planets" (ie, the combination of a weak euro, record low interest rates, and cheap energy). We foresee an improvement in growth, to 1.3% in 2017 and to 1.4% in 2018. This scenario of modest recovery is in line with the recent business surveys.

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  • France – Housing market: Recent developments and outlook for 2017-2018, Slight fall ahead

    Edition May 23, 2017
    The housing market had a record year in 2016, with very high transaction volumes, reaching the level of the highs of the previous housing boom (2006-2007). The housing market continued upbeat in early 2017 but could see a slight dip in the second half and in 2018. Mortgage lending rates began to rise very slightly in early 2017. This trend seems likely to pick up gradually on the back of the slow rise in 10-year OAT rates. Moreover, prices are still high and have begun rising again.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 11, 2017

    Highlights: Poland's budget deficit was up in the first quarter. Turkey has switched political regime. Qatar's economy is benefitting from the virtues of a counter-cyclical policy. The plummeting price of cocoa is likely to have severely adverse consequences in Côte-d'Ivoire and Ghana. Chinese GDP growth picked up slightly in the first quarter, to 6.9% year-on-year. In Brazil, interest rates are falling and inflation is slowing (and contrariwise).

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  • Saudi Arabia – On track for reform

    Edition May 3, 2017

    In the streets of Riyadh these days, large billboards show King Salman and the two crown princes praising the country's National Transformation Plan (NTP). The logo surrounding the national emblem conjures up fountains, oasis-coloured mosaics, and doubtless also, in the minds of the designers, a glowing future. The watchwords of the "Vision 2030" plan, promoted by the billboard campaign, are diversification, privatisation, investment, and productivity.

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  • United-Kingdom - Consumers' resilience under scrutiny

    Edition April 10, 2017

    The resilience of the British economy in the post-referendum period has taken many by surprise. Some made rapid conclusions that ‘Brexit has had no effect on the economy'. To state this, however, is to voluntarily omit that Brexit has not yet occurred. We are still at the very beginning of the negotiation process, which started officially on 29 March. The main effects of the referendum result so far have been through foreign exchange.

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