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  • China – Beyond the financial risk

    Edition 6 December 2018

    Chinese debt has been a major topic over the past few years. And not without reason, as it entails a risk of financial instability that is real, despite the existence of buffers. But possibly overly much so, to the point of overshadowing the rest. However, beyond the financial risk, there are also other risks, questions and uncertainties, linked to the recent political and institutional developments, as well as the deterioration of relations with the United States.

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  • France – Pensions: The state of play and future reform issues

    Edition December 3, 2018

    The reforms in the 2000s warded off the risk of a severe deterioration in the pension systems deficit. The financial balance, which is currently close to equilibrium, is likely to remain so in the short term. It is felt to be positive in favourable scenarios, but would again go into deficit, by 1-1.5% of GDP a year from 2030 in the more cautious scenarios. A new pensions reform has been announced whose prime objective is to roll out a universal regime that would be clearer and fairer. It would still be a pay-as-you-go system but would shift completely to a points-based regime.

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  • Italy – Economic environment : Under pressure

    Edition 26 October 2018

    The government's single-minded focus on growth as a way of ensuring the sustainability of public accounts is a risky wager. The deficit will rise to 2.4% in 2019 but then fall to 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. Budgetary expansion will occur next year but will be followed by a neutral budgetary stance. Growth projections are brisk, at 1.5% in 2019 (after 1.2% in 2018), 1.6% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021. The European Commission has detected and noted a serious breach of the budgetary policy requirements set out in the Stability and Growth Pact. The Commission is now threatening to initiate procedures against Italy for its excessive deficit.

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  • Germany - Scenario 2018-2019: Heading for a growth slowdown

    Edition October 22, 2018

    After a year of sustained growth in 2017, Germany is now on the path of an expected slowdown of GDP at 1.9% this year and next. Germany benefits from solid domestic demand, driven by the dynamism of private and public consumption. Investment, although weakened by lower margins resulting from higher wage costs, remains the second factor supporting this growth. Net exports, on the other hand, will subtract a few points from GDP growth because of the acceleration of imports compared to exports.

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  • France: 2018-2019 Scenario

    Edition 24 October 2018

    The first half was marked by a certain desynchronisation among the main economic regions. Growth remained upbeat in the United States and fairly stable in the eurozone, while some emerging countries experienced specific difficulties. In France, the growth outlook has been revised down slightly. After 2.3% growth in 2017, we are forecasting further fairly robust growth in 2018 and 2019 at 1.6% a year.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: "And yet it moves"

    Edition October 4, 2018

    Risk-aversion translates into periods of severe turbulence and increased volatility. It justifies the fact that core long-term rates are not picking up significantly, despite upbeat growth in the US, satisfactory nominal growth in Germany and a strong USD. Risk can also, obviously, lead to a downward revision to growth forecasts and negatively affect investment behaviour.

    Thus, things could prove delicate in 2020, with a widespread downswing in growth. In the US, when the fiscal stimulus has largely run its course and the fed funds rate is in restrictive territory, growth will inevitably slow sharply. The Eurozone, for its part, will need to cope with significantly more difficult times without having built up the kind of room-for-manoeuvre needed to boost dangerously flagging growth.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts

    Edition October 3, 2018

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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  • France – Draft budget for 2019: Public deficit to increase temporarily to 2.8% of GDP in 2019

    Edition September 28, 2018

    On 24 September, the French government presented its draft finance bill for 2019. The public deficit will increase slightly, to 2.8% of GDP in 2019 vs. 2.6% in 2018. The public debt ratio should stabilise at 98.6% of GDP. The slight increase in the deficit is temporary and is due to switching the CICE tax credit into a reduction in contributions. The reduction in levies will amount to around 25 billion euros (net) in 2019, 6 for households and 19 for businesses.

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  • United Kingdom – Brexit enters a critical phase

    Edition August 17, 2018

    In the autumn, the UK and the EU have to reach an agreement on the terms of the UK's departure from the EU and a ‘framework for a future relationship'. Our central scenario remains that a last-minute deal will eventually be reached (most likely at the European Council meeting on 13 December) and that a ‘cliff-edge' scenario will be avoided. Arguably, the political risks surrounding our scenario are varied and extreme, and can shift the Brexit process in one direction or another.

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  • UK – Bank of England: On course for slow tightening despite Brexit uncertainty

    Edition August 6, 2018

    The BoE increased its key policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% at the August monetary policy meeting. Well flagged prior to the meeting, the move was largely anticipated by the markets. The vote was unanimous (9-0), contrary to expectations for a split vote. However, it is difficult to extract a clearly hawkish sign for future meetings. We continue to anticipate one rate hike per year, with the next rate hike expected in May 2019.

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