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  • France – Labour market reform: Towards greater flexibility

    Edition October 16, 2017

    The long-term trend in the French labour market is a rising unemployment rate and the development of "mass unemployment". Despite going into reverse in the second half of 2015, the unemployment rate remains high. In view of this, the provisions in the reform of the French labour code are designed to make the labour market more flexible while guaranteeing workers some protection.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition October 12, 2017

    Highlights: Heading for a peak in the growth cycle in Central Europe. Uzbek devaluation and the threat of a market feeding frenzy in Central Asia. North Africa and Iran are countries whose currencies are threatened by imbalances. Rumours of a cut in key rates abound in South Africa. India's growth rate has kept on slowing since the start of 2016. Sure, the worst is over for Brazilians, but… is the future any more brilliant?

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  • France - Draft Budget Law for 2018: Public deficit reduced to 2.6% of GDP

    Edition October 5, 2017

    The public deficit would reach 2.6% of GDP in 2018 (after 2.9% in 2017). The public debt ratio is expected to stabilise at 96.8% of GDP. The support measures include €10bn (net) of tax cuts and the first component of the major public investment plan. They are part of a supply-side policy and aim at a sustainable recovery of investment and employment. Significant savings on expenditures (€15bn) enable both the funding of these measures and the reducing of the deficits.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Inflation, the long absence

    Edition October 4, 2017

    Because interest rate cuts alone seemed incapable of fending off deflation, the central banks implemented unconventional monetary policies. Now that the deflation threat has been averted, the "heterodox" monetary arrangements will be progressively tightened. And while inflation is still very shy of the target, interest rate hikes are being deferred or brought in at snail"s pace.

    The issue of pace is essential. If inflation accelerates due to an exogenous shock or ends up resuming but with an unusual delay, it could come after the real cycle has peaked suggesting that any central bank action will be too late, so that tightening would be pro-cyclical. If inflation does not pick up to any significant degree, perhaps it might be time to revise inflation targets down or even overhaul the system of inflation-targeting completely, at least in its "pure" version, when the inflation target is not "even" combined with an employment target.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

    Edition October 4, 2017

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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  • Understand Qatar crisis : Economist's infographic

    Edition 26 September 2017

    Qatar crisis which blew up three months ago seems sometimes difficult to understand from abroad. Actually, it is part of a global context made of old geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This Infographic summarize in a very simple way the origins of the political crisis and its regional implications.

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  • Germany – Political issues – Merkel 4.0: What political changes can we expect?

    Edition 21 September 2017

    Angela Merkel is likely to remain the German Chancellor after these federal legislative elections. The arbitration that she will have to carry out between the two currently possible coalitions will be decisive for the economic policy of the country. In order to understand their differences, we propose here to analyze the electoral proposals put forward by the political parties competing on basis of four key themes in the electoral campaign.

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  • Germany – Political issues: Assessing the Merkel years

    Edition September 20, 2017

    Germany faced depth change during the mandates of Angela Merkel. It overcame the difficulties raised by reunification, came through two major economic crises, and at the same time it was able to become the engine of European growth. This success is not only the result of the actions carried out by the Chancellor but also a result of the changes previously initiated. Its economic model is still attractive in some respects but will have to evolve to face of the challenges of tomorrow.

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  • United kingdom – The BoE points to a November hike

    Edition September 20, 2017

    The Bank of England gave a clear sign at its September monetary policy meeting that a rate hike may occur as soon as the next meeting in November. Subsequent speeches by Carney and Vlieghe have reinforced that call. The BoE appears more confident that underlying inflationary pressures are building gradually, on the back of a continued erosion of labour-market slack and supportive global growth. We adjust our central-case scenario to one rate hike of 25 bps in November.

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  • France – Economy: A lasting improvement?

    Edition September 12, 2017

    Tangible signs of improvement in the economy have been perceptible for a number of weeks (GDP growth, business climate, labour market). As a result, we have revised our growth forecast upward for 2017 in view of the more dynamic than initially forecast trend and one-off catch-up phenomena. In 2018, on the other hand, growth seems unlikely to accelerate. We are forecasting growth of 1.7% in 2017 and of 1.6% in 2018.

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