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  • Eurozone – Outlook 2017-2018: Reconfiguration of expectations

    Edition November 10, 2017

    Eurozone growth is strengthening and was moving along at an annual rate of over 2%. The Eurozone thus looks set for another year of above-potential growth driven by a favourable global environment. These positive surprises as regards growth could encourage economic agents to upgrade their prospects, having in recent years been used to their successive downward revisions. However, the euro's recent appreciation has brought some shadow on this perfectly justified optimism-tinted scenario.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Inflation, the long absence

    Edition October 4, 2017

    Because interest rate cuts alone seemed incapable of fending off deflation, the central banks implemented unconventional monetary policies. Now that the deflation threat has been averted, the "heterodox" monetary arrangements will be progressively tightened. And while inflation is still very shy of the target, interest rate hikes are being deferred or brought in at snail"s pace.

    The issue of pace is essential. If inflation accelerates due to an exogenous shock or ends up resuming but with an unusual delay, it could come after the real cycle has peaked suggesting that any central bank action will be too late, so that tightening would be pro-cyclical. If inflation does not pick up to any significant degree, perhaps it might be time to revise inflation targets down or even overhaul the system of inflation-targeting completely, at least in its "pure" version, when the inflation target is not "even" combined with an employment target.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition March 29, 2017

    Highlights: Poland is forecast to emerge from deflation in 2017. In Russia, will Mr Putin continue to be patient? What role do women play in the Middle East and North Africa labour market? Nigeria is experiencing a liquidity crisis. In China, things are kicking off quite well? In Brazil, the Attorney General spectacularly intervened in the Odebrecht affair.

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  • Italy vs Spain: do fundamentals justify trade?

    Edition February 3, 2017

    Markets and institutional organisations favour a better recent dynamic in Spain, while Italy stands out as benefitting from a better status on various economic dimensions. Spain has started earlier implementing a series of post-crisis structural reforms, while Italy was standing on a better reform track in the 1990s. The latest impressive round of Italian structural reforms is too young to unveil their impact and has not been fully taken into account by observers.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2016-2017: Keeping a sense of balance

    Edition March 31, 2016

    There's a lengthy list of risks piling up upstream of our economic scenario. In addition to the geopolitical and political risks, consider also the following concerns: collapsing Chinese growth; a brutal, uncontrolled depreciation of its currency by Beijing; commodity prices plummeting again; a sharp slowdown in US growth; a sharp increase in corporate bankruptcies in the US oil sector; Eurozone deflation; and the inevitable miring of the emerging world in recession. These risks are especially frightening as gauging their possible dire consequences is a difficult, if not impossible, task… particularly as they are all connected and mutually sustaining.

    To round off this already long list, and be certain of the imminence of catastrophic meltdown, the assumption that central banks have already used up all their ammunition is sometimes put forward. In the event of a marked growth slowdown, in the US in particular, it is felt that central banks would lack any means of action.

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  • United Kingdom – Bank of England continues to expect the next rate move to be upward

    Edition February 5, 2016

    The BoE left its monetary policy unchanged in February, in line with expectations. The decision was unanimous, making a change from the outcome of votes in previous months. The BoE made significant downward revisions to its growth and CPI inflation projections alongside its February Inflation Report, with inflation projected to remain below the 2% target until the end of 2017.

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  • Eurozone - QE impact indicator - November 2015 : Flash in the pan?

    Edition November 10, 2015

    Our Quantitative Easing impact indicator continued to edge down in October, following the virtually across-the-board deterioration in monetary and financial conditions observed over the summer. The monetary policy transmission channels that most immediately responded to the launch of the policy at the start of the year are those that have deteriorated most.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition July 1, 2015

    Highlights: In Central Europe, the standard of living is calculated according to GDP at purchasing power parity per capita. The Algerian Prime Minister sounds the alarm. Decoupling in variations in Nigerian naira and Angolan kwanza against the dollar. India posts an improvement… in industrial production. Brazil must solve its inflation conundrum.

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  • Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016

    Edition December 2014

    2014 was a disappointing year for the Eurozone. The more upbeat expectations observed in late 2013 did not materialise in a recovery that has turned out to be more laboured than expected. The slight pick-up in activity in Q3 (+0.2% QoQ after +0.1% in Q2) did not radically alter the flat profile of activity since the spring. The forecast 0.9% growth rate for 2014 implies a new widening of the growth gap with the other large economies.

    This is because the EMU area has shown considerable vulnerability to the drop in emerging-economy imports. The divergence in growth levels among EU member states has remained significant, despite the slowing of the core economies and a recovery in some peripheral countries. The underlying imbalances that are driving this divergence cannot easily be absorbed in a low-growth, low-inflation environment, and this will certainly remain true out to our forecasting horizon.

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  • France: Scant risk of a deflationary spiral

    Edition October, 2014

    Fears of seeing the Eurozone sink into deflation, against a backdrop of the spectre of the Japanese example, have propelled inflation centre stage. France has not been spared the general price downtrend and inflation has fallen substantially in the recent period, with prices rising by just 0.3% in the 12 months to end-September. In this issue, we aim to examine the causes of this slowdown in prices, or rather the accumulation of factors that have led to the current severe disinflation.

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