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  • France – Real estate: recent developments and outlook for 2019

    Edition February 15, 2019

    The housing market should remain upbeat in 2019. Demand should be sustained by low lending rates and structural support factors. The market should see neither a bubble nor a sudden collapse. Yet, after an outstanding year in 2017, the market should continue to slow down gently. Transactions should thus see a slight decline in 2019 (-4% over 12 months in pre-owned, -6% in new-build) and the rate of increase in prices should slow towards 2%.

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  • Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: plenty of twists and turns to negotiate cautiously

    Edition December 21, 2018

    In the Eurozone, against a backdrop of an accommodative monetary policy and a fiscal policy that is making a positive contribution to growth, the still-robust nature of fundamentals points to the maturity of the cycle but not its imminent demise. Supply-side pressures, which emerged at the peak of the cycle in late 2017, have progressively faded. They no longer seem able to generate the kind of margin erosion that would trigger a sudden downturn. Eurozone growth, which is fated to shift gradually to a pace more in line with its estimated 1.5% potential, was following a normal path – namely that of a slowdown – falling from an annualised 2.8% in summer 2017 to 2.2% in spring 2018. Since the summer, however, the deceleration has gathered pace and the still-favourable information provided by the hard figures is being disputed by the worsening sentiment derived from the surveys.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic & financial forecasts

    Edition December 21, 2018

    Aperiodic - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts

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  • France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

    Edition October 31, 2018

    After an exceptional year in 2017, the housing market has again been sustained in 2018, but is not showing any signs of a bubble or overheating. On the contrary, signs of cooling have been growing, with a slight dip in sales of pre-owned homes, a more marked drop in sales of new-build homes, and a slowdown in prices and mortgage lending. In 2019, the market will continue to slow very gently, with a slight fall-off in transactions and a slowdown of housing prices.

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  • Germany - Scenario 2018-2019: Heading for a growth slowdown

    Edition October 22, 2018

    After a year of sustained growth in 2017, Germany is now on the path of an expected slowdown of GDP at 1.9% this year and next. Germany benefits from solid domestic demand, driven by the dynamism of private and public consumption. Investment, although weakened by lower margins resulting from higher wage costs, remains the second factor supporting this growth. Net exports, on the other hand, will subtract a few points from GDP growth because of the acceleration of imports compared to exports.

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  • France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

    Edition August 1, 2018

    The French real-estate market experienced an exceptional year in 2017. The first signs of a cooling in the market have emerged since the start of the year. This contraction is set to continue in 2018-2019. Firstly, the gradual refocusing of the Pinel scheme and the PTZ on the most sought-after areas will reduce sales of new-build properties. Secondly, mortgage lending rates are set to increase slightly and the increase in house prices will reduce the households' purchasing power and encouraging buyers to take a more wait-and-see approach.

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  • France – Competitiveness and market shares

    Edition July 2, 2018

    France is showing symptoms of a competitiveness gap. These include the loss of share of French exports in world exports and the persistent trade deficit. They reflect poor export performances and robust imports. With very few exceptions, foreign trade has contributed negatively to growth in France since the early 2000s.

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  • France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

    Edition 14 May 2018

    The housing market saw a record year in 2017. We do not feel it likely that the market will overheat in 2018-2019. On the contrary, a slight dip is forecast. For one thing, the gradual refocusing of the Pinel buy-to-let scheme and the PTZ interest free housing loan on areas of housing shortages is forecast to cut new-build sales by 9% in 2018. Secondly, the gradual increase of lending rates combined with rising home prices will nibble away at households' ability to buy and make buyers more hesitant and wait-and-see.

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  • Europe – Foreign trade – Trade war: the price to be paid

    Edition May 2018

    The announcements concerning the Trump administration's trade policy present a serious challenge for the European Union. If it fails to bring the US back to the WTO's negotiating table, the European Union could either enter into bilateral negotiations, or lodge a complaint with the WTO in order to obtain compensation. Both options carry a cost, be it having to renounce multilateralism, or face an escalation of the trade conflict with the US.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition March 7, 2018

    Highlights: It's not growth that is missing in Central and Eastern Europe... In Saudi Arabia, there are doubts about the rebalancing of the growth model. In Sub-Saharan Africa, dependence on commodity exports remains strong and raises the issue of economic diversification. In India exchange rate risk is higher, Brazil delivers a kaleidoscope of data for a poorly enthusiastic panorama.

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