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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Inflation, the long absence

    Edition October 4, 2017

    Because interest rate cuts alone seemed incapable of fending off deflation, the central banks implemented unconventional monetary policies. Now that the deflation threat has been averted, the "heterodox" monetary arrangements will be progressively tightened. And while inflation is still very shy of the target, interest rate hikes are being deferred or brought in at snail"s pace.

    The issue of pace is essential. If inflation accelerates due to an exogenous shock or ends up resuming but with an unusual delay, it could come after the real cycle has peaked suggesting that any central bank action will be too late, so that tightening would be pro-cyclical. If inflation does not pick up to any significant degree, perhaps it might be time to revise inflation targets down or even overhaul the system of inflation-targeting completely, at least in its "pure" version, when the inflation target is not "even" combined with an employment target.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Economic and financial forecasts

    Edition October 4, 2017

    This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.

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  • United kingdom – The BoE points to a November hike

    Edition September 20, 2017

    The Bank of England gave a clear sign at its September monetary policy meeting that a rate hike may occur as soon as the next meeting in November. Subsequent speeches by Carney and Vlieghe have reinforced that call. The BoE appears more confident that underlying inflationary pressures are building gradually, on the back of a continued erosion of labour-market slack and supportive global growth. We adjust our central-case scenario to one rate hike of 25 bps in November.

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  • Saudi Arabia – The rentier model in an era of reform and regional crisis

    Edition August 1, 2017

    The lasting drop in the oil price to around 50 dollars a barrel is undermining the deeply rentier Saudi economy, which derives 90% of its tax receipts. A huge long-term structural reform plan ("Vision 2030") is ongoing to wean the country off its rentier economy. It is extremely ambitious, especially in its social components, where the challenges are greatest. However, the political and geopolitical environment is a source of growing concern.

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  • France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2017-2018

    Edition July 26, 2017

    The housing market was very active in 2016 and in the first half of 2017. The recovery is mainly linked to two factors: extremely low mortgage lending rates, which are now starting to edge up, boosting sales through a windfall effect; and the new-build stimulus plan with the Pinel scheme and the strengthening of the PTZ interest-free loan. Is this strength likely to persist, at a time when lending rates are timidly embarking on an uptrend? Two main scenarios seem possible, in our view.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Pleasant surprises of a slow-burn cycle

    Edition July 3, 2017

    How do you best describe a cycle that ends up delivering pleasant surprises? Answer: by qualifying it, so to speak, as a slow-burn cycle. The classic sequence of events is falling into place, albeit very slowly. It is as if it were necessary – in addition to the obvious need to absorb excess capacity – to remove all doubts before taking any decisions. Household consumption is still the main driver of growth. But investment is finally beginning to show signs of life. The labour market has finally started to improve. And growth has finally started to become more job-rich. Meanwhile wages and prices are proving to be surprisingly well-behaved. This is a sign both of excess capacity, which is proving to be hard to absorb, and, without a doubt, structural change, what with the growth of the service economy and of ‘uberisation' as drivers of competition, which are helping to keep wages down, especially in economies that are still convalescing after the crisis.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition June 7, 2017

    Highlights: What changes are forecast for Turkey's current account balance? Which Middle East and North Africa countries are over-indebted? Côte d'Ivoire experiences mutiny episode 2. Heading for a slowdown in China. Inflation picking up in Mexico.

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  • France – Macroeconomic scenario 2017-2018 : A modest recovery but with signs of improvement

    Edition May 23, 2017

    In 2016, over the full year, French growth came out at 1.1%, a pace very similar to that of 2015 (1.2%), and was therefore disappointing despite that much vaunted "alignment of the planets" (ie, the combination of a weak euro, record low interest rates, and cheap energy). We foresee an improvement in growth, to 1.3% in 2017 and to 1.4% in 2018. This scenario of modest recovery is in line with the recent business surveys.

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  • France – Housing market: Recent developments and outlook for 2017-2018, Slight fall ahead

    Edition May 23, 2017
    The housing market had a record year in 2016, with very high transaction volumes, reaching the level of the highs of the previous housing boom (2006-2007). The housing market continued upbeat in early 2017 but could see a slight dip in the second half and in 2018. Mortgage lending rates began to rise very slightly in early 2017. This trend seems likely to pick up gradually on the back of the slow rise in 10-year OAT rates. Moreover, prices are still high and have begun rising again.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 11, 2017

    Highlights: Poland's budget deficit was up in the first quarter. Turkey has switched political regime. Qatar's economy is benefitting from the virtues of a counter-cyclical policy. The plummeting price of cocoa is likely to have severely adverse consequences in Côte-d'Ivoire and Ghana. Chinese GDP growth picked up slightly in the first quarter, to 6.9% year-on-year. In Brazil, interest rates are falling and inflation is slowing (and contrariwise).

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