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  • Europe – Foreign trade – Trade war: the price to be paid

    Edition May 2018

    The announcements concerning the Trump administration's trade policy present a serious challenge for the European Union. If it fails to bring the US back to the WTO's negotiating table, the European Union could either enter into bilateral negotiations, or lodge a complaint with the WTO in order to obtain compensation. Both options carry a cost, be it having to renounce multilateralism, or face an escalation of the trade conflict with the US.

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  • France – Stability Programme 2018 : Public deficit narrowing faster than expected

    Edition April 24, 2018

    In mid-April, the French government presented its "Stability Programme" for 2018-2022. The document describes its public finance strategy over that period. The public deficit is narrowing more rapidly than expected. Reduced to 2.6% of GDP in 2017, it is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2018. Following a slight increase in 2019, to 2.4%, due to switching the CICE to a reduction in employer social contributions, it is expected to continue shrinking, with a small surplus forecast for 2022. The public debt ratio is expected to gradually fall.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

    Edition April 4, 2018

    In the Eurozone, the recovery phase, accompanied by its share of nice surprises, is now behind us and the economy is settling into its growth phase. The sometimes disappointing findings of the surveys are not flagging up a cyclical reversal, but its natural slowdown. They reflect nothing more than expectations adapting to reality. The confidence of economic agents has become more consistent, thanks to the strength of developments in the real economy. The strength of the fundamentals suggests further sustained growth rates, of close to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with no significant pick-up in inflation. Thus, there is no threat of a monetary emergency and the ECB's monetary policy should very gradually become less accommodative.

    The emerging world should see stable growth of around 4.7% in 2018 – satisfactory without setting pulses racing.

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  • United Kingdom – Bank of England to step up its pace of tightening slightly

    Edition February 14, 2018

    The BoE unanimously decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged at its February meeting, but surprised markets with a hawkish stance. The BoE indicated that "monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period" than anticipated in November.  We now expect the next rate hike in May, while we maintain our forecast for one additional rate increase in November this year and one in August next year.

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  • United Kingdom – 2018-2019 Scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

    Edition 26 January 2018

    Brexit will be the dominant theme over the next few years. 2018 will be marked by the negotiations on a transition phase and on the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, while negotiations on the free-trade agreement should begin in 2019. Our central scenario is based on the key assumption that a withdrawal agreement will be reached between the UK and the EU under the terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

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  • Germany – 2017-2018 scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

    Edition January 17, 2018

    Our scenario for the German activity is based on a solid growth of 2.6% in 2017 and 2018. It's mainly supported by a strong domestic demand driven by both private consumption and productive investment. However, the surge in net exports also seems to contribute more sustainably to this phase of expansion of the economic cycle.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Cruel Imagination...

    Edition December 21, 2017

    There is still no threat of inflationary pressure. By end-2018, inflation is forecast to reach 2.2% in the US and 1.4% in the Eurozone. Central banks are not lagging behind the real cycle, so there is no monetary urgency. Monetary policies, which are accommodative despite actual or planned tightening, are underpinning growth. The resorption of public imbalances is made easier by low interest rates and there is no reason why rates should rise suddenly. We continue to forecast a very slow increase in long-term rates and in real rates, which look set to remain at record-low levels or even in negative territory.

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  • Eurozone – Outlook 2017-2018: Reconfiguration of expectations

    Edition November 10, 2017

    Eurozone growth is strengthening and was moving along at an annual rate of over 2%. The Eurozone thus looks set for another year of above-potential growth driven by a favourable global environment. These positive surprises as regards growth could encourage economic agents to upgrade their prospects, having in recent years been used to their successive downward revisions. However, the euro's recent appreciation has brought some shadow on this perfectly justified optimism-tinted scenario.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition November 9, 2017
    Highlights: How to interpret the populist choice of Czech voters? In Algeria, monetising the budget deficit is a dangerous thing. In South Africa, the Finance Minister has admitted to Parliament that the country's deficit was set to widen. In China, Xi Jinping is almost more powerful than Mao. The Argentinian government has scored political successes but poor economic results.

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  • Germany – 2017-2018 Scenario: Outlook in Q3-2017

    Edition October 2017

    Domestic demand remains the main factor supporting German activity in 2017 and 2018. The acceleration of consumption and investment this year is being confirmed over the quarters, while the export surge supported by world trade is counterbalanced by the rise of imports that are more dynamic. Our scenario expects a solid GDP growth of + 2.2% in 2017 and + 2.1% in 2018.

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