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  • Saudi Arabia – The rentier model in an era of reform and regional crisis

    Edition August 1, 2017

    The lasting drop in the oil price to around 50 dollars a barrel is undermining the deeply rentier Saudi economy, which derives 90% of its tax receipts. A huge long-term structural reform plan ("Vision 2030") is ongoing to wean the country off its rentier economy. It is extremely ambitious, especially in its social components, where the challenges are greatest. However, the political and geopolitical environment is a source of growing concern.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition July 19, 2017

    Highlights: In the Balkans, the Trieste meeting raised the question of the creation of a common market and/or political issues. The crisis in the Gulf States will have a negative, long-term impact on the image of the GCC. Two interesting figures were published in South Africa: inflation and the Q1 2017 current account deficit. Chinese shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have been included in the composite MSCI Emerging Markets Index. In Brazil, Michel Temer is battling for his political survival.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Pleasant surprises of a slow-burn cycle

    Edition July 3, 2017

    How do you best describe a cycle that ends up delivering pleasant surprises? Answer: by qualifying it, so to speak, as a slow-burn cycle. The classic sequence of events is falling into place, albeit very slowly. It is as if it were necessary – in addition to the obvious need to absorb excess capacity – to remove all doubts before taking any decisions. Household consumption is still the main driver of growth. But investment is finally beginning to show signs of life. The labour market has finally started to improve. And growth has finally started to become more job-rich. Meanwhile wages and prices are proving to be surprisingly well-behaved. This is a sign both of excess capacity, which is proving to be hard to absorb, and, without a doubt, structural change, what with the growth of the service economy and of ‘uberisation' as drivers of competition, which are helping to keep wages down, especially in economies that are still convalescing after the crisis.

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  • Dove profusion

    Edition June 8, 2017

    There are too many questions, there is no 'one solution', there is no core inflation, there is growth celebration. And an ECB that has provided a profusion of dovish elements to make markets feel, to make markets know that, despite the fact that the wording of the forward guidance changed, the ECB will remain on the path of an accommodative stance for a prolonged period of time.

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  • France – Macroeconomic scenario 2017-2018 : A modest recovery but with signs of improvement

    Edition May 23, 2017

    In 2016, over the full year, French growth came out at 1.1%, a pace very similar to that of 2015 (1.2%), and was therefore disappointing despite that much vaunted "alignment of the planets" (ie, the combination of a weak euro, record low interest rates, and cheap energy). We foresee an improvement in growth, to 1.3% in 2017 and to 1.4% in 2018. This scenario of modest recovery is in line with the recent business surveys.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 11, 2017

    Highlights: Poland's budget deficit was up in the first quarter. Turkey has switched political regime. Qatar's economy is benefitting from the virtues of a counter-cyclical policy. The plummeting price of cocoa is likely to have severely adverse consequences in Côte-d'Ivoire and Ghana. Chinese GDP growth picked up slightly in the first quarter, to 6.9% year-on-year. In Brazil, interest rates are falling and inflation is slowing (and contrariwise).

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  • United-Kingdom - Consumers' resilience under scrutiny

    Edition April 10, 2017

    The resilience of the British economy in the post-referendum period has taken many by surprise. Some made rapid conclusions that ‘Brexit has had no effect on the economy'. To state this, however, is to voluntarily omit that Brexit has not yet occurred. We are still at the very beginning of the negotiation process, which started officially on 29 March. The main effects of the referendum result so far have been through foreign exchange.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018: Aligning timescales

    Edition April 3, 2017

    Whether we're talking about Brexit or, above all, the election of Donald Trump, recent political changes have undoubtedly been shocks. It is no longer simply a question of shifting the cursor of economic policy towards a little less state, less taxation and less social protection. Instead, the aim is to cure the ills of an ailing society by designating scapegoats and demonising the ‘rest of the world' in particular.

    The objectives are ambitious. Without its even being necessary to judge the effectiveness of the solutions proposed, suffice it to say that they are above all radical. So radical, paradoxically, that they are not materialising as rapidly as might be hoped by those betting on their effectiveness or as might be feared by those who consider them inappropriate and dangerous.

    In the short term, the direct impact on the real economy and on agents' behaviour is minor, because institutional obstacles must first be overcome and/or the assent of national parliaments obtained.

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  • US-Rate hike but little change in views

    Edition du 16 mars 2017

    As widely expected, the FOMC raised the Fed funds (FF) target by 25 bps to a range of 0.75% to 1.00%. The Fed's median projection for the FF rate at the end of 2017 was 1.4%, implying two additional 25 bps rate hikes this year. This is unchanged from the December projection as was the projection for yearend 2018 at 2.1%, implying 3 additional hikes next year. The longer-run fed funds rate projection remained at 3.0%.

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  • ECB - Tainted dove

    Edition 10 March, 2017

    Sometimes the ECB feels it has to run away, it has to get away from the dovish stance it drove into the heart of the Eurozone. The dovish stance seems to be close to an end. It is losing its usefulness… The constructive ambiguity widely used by the ECB at today's press conference confirms our view that the ECB is almost at the peak of its accommodative stance: from now on, it will slow the expectations on monetary policy before actually – very gradually – removing the monetary support.

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