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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 29, 2018

    Highlights: What is to be done with the Balkans, Europe's enfants terribles? Is there a risk of a hard landing in Turkey? Saudi Arabia's authorities are concerned by the sharp rise in unemployment. Moody's has downgraded Angola's sovereign debt rating by a notch. In India, victory leaves a bitter taste. Argentina is playing an old, hopeless and costly game.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

    Edition April 4, 2018

    In the Eurozone, the recovery phase, accompanied by its share of nice surprises, is now behind us and the economy is settling into its growth phase. The sometimes disappointing findings of the surveys are not flagging up a cyclical reversal, but its natural slowdown. They reflect nothing more than expectations adapting to reality. The confidence of economic agents has become more consistent, thanks to the strength of developments in the real economy. The strength of the fundamentals suggests further sustained growth rates, of close to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with no significant pick-up in inflation. Thus, there is no threat of a monetary emergency and the ECB's monetary policy should very gradually become less accommodative.

    The emerging world should see stable growth of around 4.7% in 2018 – satisfactory without setting pulses racing.

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  • Germany – 2017-2018 Scenario: Outlook in Q3-2017

    Edition October 2017

    Domestic demand remains the main factor supporting German activity in 2017 and 2018. The acceleration of consumption and investment this year is being confirmed over the quarters, while the export surge supported by world trade is counterbalanced by the rise of imports that are more dynamic. Our scenario expects a solid GDP growth of + 2.2% in 2017 and + 2.1% in 2018.

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  • Spain – Madrid vs Barcelona: 'més que un clasico'

    Edition 29 September 2017

    The continuing refusal of Madrid to open negotiations for further Catalan fiscal autonomy has pushed the Catalan nationalist conservatives towards secessionism, leading to the formation of a cross-party majority for independence in the Catalan Parlament. If a UDI is claimed, following a positive result in the referendum, its actual implementation seems unlikely, given the lack of strong popular support and the weaknesses of the secessionist majority.

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  • Germany – Political issues – Merkel 4.0: What political changes can we expect?

    Edition 21 September 2017

    Angela Merkel is likely to remain the German Chancellor after these federal legislative elections. The arbitration that she will have to carry out between the two currently possible coalitions will be decisive for the economic policy of the country. In order to understand their differences, we propose here to analyze the electoral proposals put forward by the political parties competing on basis of four key themes in the electoral campaign.

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  • US Congress is back in session with an urgent legislative agenda

    Edition 5 september 2017

    A USD7.9bn down payment on disaster recovery relief requested by President Trump for victims of hurricane Harvey is likely to be approved quickly. Congress will need to raise or suspend the debt limit to avoid a potential Treasury default. The debt limit legislation might be linked to the increased spending appropriation for disaster relief in the wake of hurricane Harvey.

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  • US-Rate hike but little change in views

    Edition du 16 mars 2017

    As widely expected, the FOMC raised the Fed funds (FF) target by 25 bps to a range of 0.75% to 1.00%. The Fed's median projection for the FF rate at the end of 2017 was 1.4%, implying two additional 25 bps rate hikes this year. This is unchanged from the December projection as was the projection for yearend 2018 at 2.1%, implying 3 additional hikes next year. The longer-run fed funds rate projection remained at 3.0%.

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  • US- Prepping the markets for a hike

    Edition February 16, 2017

    US economic performance is likely to warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate. Chair Yellen reiterated her view that "waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession."

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  • FOMC: Policy unchanged. No hints on timing of next hike

    Edition 2 February, 2017

    As widely expected, the FOMC left its monetary policy unchanged with the Fed funds rate target range maintained at 0.5% to 0.75% at its February meeting. The Fed's balance sheet reinvestment policies were also unchanged.

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  • Political issues – Where the anger is coming from

    Edition January 18, 2016

    The issue of populist movements does not stop at elections. In the longer term, it poses the problem of the legitimacy of elites and solutions for reconciling democracy and globalisation. In fact, we have now entered into a political cycle, ie, a point in history where politics has taken over from the economy and is imposing its own rationality. There is no going back: we are seing a transition of both internal and external political equilibrium.

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