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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition May 29, 2018

    Highlights: What is to be done with the Balkans, Europe's enfants terribles? Is there a risk of a hard landing in Turkey? Saudi Arabia's authorities are concerned by the sharp rise in unemployment. Moody's has downgraded Angola's sovereign debt rating by a notch. In India, victory leaves a bitter taste. Argentina is playing an old, hopeless and costly game.

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  • France – 2018-2019 scenario: Robust growth in 2018-2019 despite increased recruitment difficulties

    Edition May 2, 2018

    Q1 GDP showed slowing growth. This was expected and was justified by one-off factors; this does not suggest, however, that the French economy has begun a cyclical downswing. Over 2018 as a whole, the pace of growth is forecast to remain robust. France is experiencing increased recruitment difficulties that reveal a level of activity that it now nearing its potential, and a problem of labour suitability.

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  • United-Kingdom 2018-19 Scenario: outlook as at Q1 18

    Edition April 25, 2018

    Negotiations on Brexit have moved forward since a preliminary divorce agreement was signed last December. The United Kingdom has ended up softening its red lines somewhat, without this leading to a major political crisis. The European Union has shown some flexibility while remaining firm on its fundamental principles. An agreement on a transition period was concluded in March. However, the hardest part is yet to come, with the Irish border issue to be settled by June.

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  • France – Stability Programme 2018 : Public deficit narrowing faster than expected

    Edition April 24, 2018

    In mid-April, the French government presented its "Stability Programme" for 2018-2022. The document describes its public finance strategy over that period. The public deficit is narrowing more rapidly than expected. Reduced to 2.6% of GDP in 2017, it is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2018. Following a slight increase in 2019, to 2.4%, due to switching the CICE to a reduction in employer social contributions, it is expected to continue shrinking, with a small surplus forecast for 2022. The public debt ratio is expected to gradually fall.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition April 10, 2018

    Highlights: Slovenia is the good student of the European Union. Despite weakening, the Qatar economy is proving fairly resilient to the embargo. The IMF welcomes Nigeria's emergence from recession but warns about an economy that is still convalescent. China has a new vice Prime Minister. As a sign, among other things, of culpable interference between the Argentinian state and the Central Bank, inflation is picking up.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition March 7, 2018

    Highlights: It's not growth that is missing in Central and Eastern Europe... In Saudi Arabia, there are doubts about the rebalancing of the growth model. In Sub-Saharan Africa, dependence on commodity exports remains strong and raises the issue of economic diversification. In India exchange rate risk is higher, Brazil delivers a kaleidoscope of data for a poorly enthusiastic panorama.

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  • World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Cruel Imagination...

    Edition December 21, 2017

    There is still no threat of inflationary pressure. By end-2018, inflation is forecast to reach 2.2% in the US and 1.4% in the Eurozone. Central banks are not lagging behind the real cycle, so there is no monetary urgency. Monetary policies, which are accommodative despite actual or planned tightening, are underpinning growth. The resorption of public imbalances is made easier by low interest rates and there is no reason why rates should rise suddenly. We continue to forecast a very slow increase in long-term rates and in real rates, which look set to remain at record-low levels or even in negative territory.

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  • Spain – Political issues: Issues and consequences of the Catalan elections

    Edition December 15, 2017

    Although likely to continue as the leading political Catalan political force, the separatists have not formed a united front for the forthcoming regional election of December 21st. A new separatist government with the support of Podemos seems the most probable outcome. However, if the division within the secessionism camp lower the probability of a renewed unilateral road map no longer seems to be on the agenda, those divisions mean that we cannot rule out the possibility of a new election.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition November 9, 2017
    Highlights: How to interpret the populist choice of Czech voters? In Algeria, monetising the budget deficit is a dangerous thing. In South Africa, the Finance Minister has admitted to Parliament that the country's deficit was set to widen. In China, Xi Jinping is almost more powerful than Mao. The Argentinian government has scored political successes but poor economic results.

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  • France – Labour market reform: Towards greater flexibility

    Edition October 16, 2017

    The long-term trend in the French labour market is a rising unemployment rate and the development of "mass unemployment". Despite going into reverse in the second half of 2015, the unemployment rate remains high. In view of this, the provisions in the reform of the French labour code are designed to make the labour market more flexible while guaranteeing workers some protection.

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