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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition November 9, 2017
    Highlights: How to interpret the populist choice of Czech voters? In Algeria, monetising the budget deficit is a dangerous thing. In South Africa, the Finance Minister has admitted to Parliament that the country's deficit was set to widen. In China, Xi Jinping is almost more powerful than Mao. The Argentinian government has scored political successes but poor economic results.

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  • France – Labour market reform: Towards greater flexibility

    Edition October 16, 2017

    The long-term trend in the French labour market is a rising unemployment rate and the development of "mass unemployment". Despite going into reverse in the second half of 2015, the unemployment rate remains high. In view of this, the provisions in the reform of the French labour code are designed to make the labour market more flexible while guaranteeing workers some protection.

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  • France - Draft Budget Law for 2018: Public deficit reduced to 2.6% of GDP

    Edition October 5, 2017

    The public deficit would reach 2.6% of GDP in 2018 (after 2.9% in 2017). The public debt ratio is expected to stabilise at 96.8% of GDP. The support measures include €10bn (net) of tax cuts and the first component of the major public investment plan. They are part of a supply-side policy and aim at a sustainable recovery of investment and employment. Significant savings on expenditures (€15bn) enable both the funding of these measures and the reducing of the deficits.

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  • Spain – Madrid vs Barcelona: 'més que un clasico'

    Edition 29 September 2017

    The continuing refusal of Madrid to open negotiations for further Catalan fiscal autonomy has pushed the Catalan nationalist conservatives towards secessionism, leading to the formation of a cross-party majority for independence in the Catalan Parlament. If a UDI is claimed, following a positive result in the referendum, its actual implementation seems unlikely, given the lack of strong popular support and the weaknesses of the secessionist majority.

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  • Understand Qatar crisis : Economist's infographic

    Edition 26 September 2017

    Qatar crisis which blew up three months ago seems sometimes difficult to understand from abroad. Actually, it is part of a global context made of old geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This Infographic summarize in a very simple way the origins of the political crisis and its regional implications.

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  • US Congress is back in session with an urgent legislative agenda

    Edition 5 september 2017

    A USD7.9bn down payment on disaster recovery relief requested by President Trump for victims of hurricane Harvey is likely to be approved quickly. Congress will need to raise or suspend the debt limit to avoid a potential Treasury default. The debt limit legislation might be linked to the increased spending appropriation for disaster relief in the wake of hurricane Harvey.

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  • Saudi Arabia – The rentier model in an era of reform and regional crisis

    Edition August 1, 2017

    The lasting drop in the oil price to around 50 dollars a barrel is undermining the deeply rentier Saudi economy, which derives 90% of its tax receipts. A huge long-term structural reform plan ("Vision 2030") is ongoing to wean the country off its rentier economy. It is extremely ambitious, especially in its social components, where the challenges are greatest. However, the political and geopolitical environment is a source of growing concern.

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  • France - Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2017-2018

    Edition July 26, 2017

    The housing market was very active in 2016 and in the first half of 2017. The recovery is mainly linked to two factors: extremely low mortgage lending rates, which are now starting to edge up, boosting sales through a windfall effect; and the new-build stimulus plan with the Pinel scheme and the strengthening of the PTZ interest-free loan. Is this strength likely to persist, at a time when lending rates are timidly embarking on an uptrend? Two main scenarios seem possible, in our view.

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  • Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Edition July 19, 2017

    Highlights: In the Balkans, the Trieste meeting raised the question of the creation of a common market and/or political issues. The crisis in the Gulf States will have a negative, long-term impact on the image of the GCC. Two interesting figures were published in South Africa: inflation and the Q1 2017 current account deficit. Chinese shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have been included in the composite MSCI Emerging Markets Index. In Brazil, Michel Temer is battling for his political survival.

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  • France – Corporate debt ratios : should we be worried?

    Edition July 12, 2017

    The debt ratio of non-financial companies (NFCs), defined as the ratio of debt (Credits and debt securities) to value-added, has grown significantly since 2006 to reach a rec-ord high of close to 135% at the beginning of 2017. At first sight, this development seems worrying. Nevertheless, other measures, such as net debt ratio or the debt-to-equity ratio (ratios linked to corporate accounting) provide a more reassuring image.

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