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  • France – 2019-2020 Scenario: more dynamic purchasing power but growth slowdown confirmed

    Edition January 22, 2019

    In France, growth has slowed significantly compared with the previous year. Following the publication of the Q3 GDP figure, the growth carryover came out at 1.5% in 2018, compared with 2.3% in 2017. Q1 was effectively disappointing, with growth then firming up slightly in Q3. That said, it is likely to return to a more modest rate at the end of the year, largely due to the effects of the Gilets Jaunes crisis. Going forward, we are forecasting a likely similar annual growth rate in 2019, of 1.6%.

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  • Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: plenty of twists and turns to negotiate cautiously

    Edition December 21, 2018

    In the Eurozone, against a backdrop of an accommodative monetary policy and a fiscal policy that is making a positive contribution to growth, the still-robust nature of fundamentals points to the maturity of the cycle but not its imminent demise. Supply-side pressures, which emerged at the peak of the cycle in late 2017, have progressively faded. They no longer seem able to generate the kind of margin erosion that would trigger a sudden downturn. Eurozone growth, which is fated to shift gradually to a pace more in line with its estimated 1.5% potential, was following a normal path – namely that of a slowdown – falling from an annualised 2.8% in summer 2017 to 2.2% in spring 2018. Since the summer, however, the deceleration has gathered pace and the still-favourable information provided by the hard figures is being disputed by the worsening sentiment derived from the surveys.

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  • World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic & financial forecasts

    Edition December 21, 2018

    Aperiodic - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts

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  • France – What are the economic consequences of the Gilets Jaunes crisis?

    Edition 20 December 2018

    The "Gilets Jaunes" crisis affects growth in Q4 2018, revised to +0,2% qoq from +0,4%. In the face of this crisis and the demands of the "Gilets Jaunes", two sets of social support measures were announced. These two sets of measures, which represent around €10 billion, will result in a significant additional gain in purchasing power of 0.7% in 2019. Consumption will be more sustained, and GDP will increase more strongly than initially forecast, +1,8% yoy in 2019. However, the deficit-to-GDP ratio is revised upwards significantly for 2019, from 2.8% to 3.3%.

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  • China – Beyond the financial risk

    Edition 6 December 2018

    Chinese debt has been a major topic over the past few years. And not without reason, as it entails a risk of financial instability that is real, despite the existence of buffers. But possibly overly much so, to the point of overshadowing the rest. However, beyond the financial risk, there are also other risks, questions and uncertainties, linked to the recent political and institutional developments, as well as the deterioration of relations with the United States.

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  • France – Pensions: The state of play and future reform issues

    Edition December 3, 2018

    The reforms in the 2000s warded off the risk of a severe deterioration in the pension systems deficit. The financial balance, which is currently close to equilibrium, is likely to remain so in the short term. It is felt to be positive in favourable scenarios, but would again go into deficit, by 1-1.5% of GDP a year from 2030 in the more cautious scenarios. A new pensions reform has been announced whose prime objective is to roll out a universal regime that would be clearer and fairer. It would still be a pay-as-you-go system but would shift completely to a points-based regime.

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  • France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019

    Edition October 31, 2018

    After an exceptional year in 2017, the housing market has again been sustained in 2018, but is not showing any signs of a bubble or overheating. On the contrary, signs of cooling have been growing, with a slight dip in sales of pre-owned homes, a more marked drop in sales of new-build homes, and a slowdown in prices and mortgage lending. In 2019, the market will continue to slow very gently, with a slight fall-off in transactions and a slowdown of housing prices.

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  • Italy – Economic environment : Under pressure

    Edition 26 October 2018

    The government's single-minded focus on growth as a way of ensuring the sustainability of public accounts is a risky wager. The deficit will rise to 2.4% in 2019 but then fall to 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. Budgetary expansion will occur next year but will be followed by a neutral budgetary stance. Growth projections are brisk, at 1.5% in 2019 (after 1.2% in 2018), 1.6% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021. The European Commission has detected and noted a serious breach of the budgetary policy requirements set out in the Stability and Growth Pact. The Commission is now threatening to initiate procedures against Italy for its excessive deficit.

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  • Germany - Scenario 2018-2019: Heading for a growth slowdown

    Edition October 22, 2018

    After a year of sustained growth in 2017, Germany is now on the path of an expected slowdown of GDP at 1.9% this year and next. Germany benefits from solid domestic demand, driven by the dynamism of private and public consumption. Investment, although weakened by lower margins resulting from higher wage costs, remains the second factor supporting this growth. Net exports, on the other hand, will subtract a few points from GDP growth because of the acceleration of imports compared to exports.

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  • France: 2018-2019 Scenario

    Edition 24 October 2018

    The first half was marked by a certain desynchronisation among the main economic regions. Growth remained upbeat in the United States and fairly stable in the eurozone, while some emerging countries experienced specific difficulties. In France, the growth outlook has been revised down slightly. After 2.3% growth in 2017, we are forecasting further fairly robust growth in 2018 and 2019 at 1.6% a year.

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