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It might be smarter to use the multiple and multifarious risks facing us to draw up an alarmist scenario. Economies are undoubtedly slowing down, but still in a very uneven way. The Eurozone seems to be looking for its second wind, Japan is struggling to boost domestic demand and Chinese growth is likely to disappoint at the start of the year; however, the US should see another year of prosperity. In 2019, growth rates should continue to slow, accompanied by measured monetary tightening and a very modest increase in risk-free interest rates.
It might be smarter to take refuge behind the current looming dangers to draw up a set of alarmist forecasts. One may also, more humbly, try to build a scenario which, without being ingenuous, does not wallow in all-out pessimism. Which means a sc...
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