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Edition December 21, 2018 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition December 21, 2018

    Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: plenty of twists and turns to negotiate cautiously

    It might be smarter to use the multiple and multifarious risks facing us to draw up an alarmist scenario. Economies are undoubtedly slowing down, but still in a very uneven way. The Eurozone seems to be looking for its second wind, Japan is struggling to boost domestic demand and Chinese growth is likely to disappoint at the start of the year; however, the US should see another year of prosperity. In 2019, growth rates should continue to slow, accompanied by measured monetary tightening and a very modest increase in risk-free interest rates.

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  • 2019: many shifts to negotiate

    It might be smarter to take refuge behind the current looming dangers to draw up a set of alarmist forecasts. One may also, more humbly, try to build a scenario which, without being ingenuous, does not wallow in all-out pessimism. Which means a sc...

  • Content:

    - Developed countries - Signs of a slowdown
    - Emerging countries - For the brave only
    - Oil - Price in purgatory
    - Monetary policy - Very diverse normalisations
    - Interest rates -No sharp increase in sight
    - Exchange rates –The dollar a colossus with feet of clay?
    - Economic and financial forecasts

  • Extract – Eurozone

    In the Eurozone, against a backdrop of an accommodative monetary policy and a fiscal policy that is making a positive contribution to growth, the still-robust nature of fundamentals points to the maturity of the cycle but not its imminent demise. Supply-side pressures, which emerged at the peak of the cycle in late 2017, have progressively faded. They no longer seem able to generate the kind of margin erosion that would trigger a sudden downturn. Eurozone growth, which is fated to shift gradually to a pace more in line with its estimated 1.5% potential, was following a normal path – namely that of a slowdown – falling from an annualised 2.8% in summer 2017 to 2.2% in spring 2018. Since the summer, however, the deceleration has gathered pace and the still-favourable information provided by the hard figures is being disputed by the worsening sentiment derived from the surveys.

  • Associative topics : Africa and Middle East | Asia and Oceania | CEE and Central Asia | Economics | Europe | Industry and Services | Latin America | North America


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