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Edition December 2014 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition December 2014

    Macroeconomic Scenario for 2015-2016

    The contrast is striking between the US economy, which currently seems able to generate self-sustaining growth, and the European and Japanese economies, which despite large-scale stimuli are still posting disappointing performance. In United States, it is undoubtedly private consumption which is mainly driving recovery. Housing and productive investment are also upbeat, while currently low energy prices are also giving an extra little boost.

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  • The global economy in 2015: contrasts

    For 2015, Crédit Agricole's economists are forecasting a slight acceleration in global growth, at 3.2% compared with 2.9% in 2014. Where will the additional growth come from? What about the rest of the world? Will the contrast between the United ...

  • Content:

    - Growth: the United States goes it alone
    - Monetary policy: Passing the baton
    - Financial markets: Post-QE policy conflict intensifies
    - Forecasts

  • Extract – Eurozone

    2014 was a disappointing year for the Eurozone. The more upbeat expectations observed in late 2013 did not materialise in a recovery that has turned out to be more laboured than expected. The slight pick-up in activity in Q3 (+0.2% QoQ after +0.1% in Q2) did not radically alter the flat profile of activity since the spring. The forecast 0.9% growth rate for 2014 implies a new widening of the growth gap with the other large economies.

    This is because the EMU area has shown considerable vulnerability to the drop in emerging-economy imports. The divergence in growth levels among EU member states has remained significant, despite the slowing of the core economies and a recovery in some peripheral countries. The underlying imbalances that are driving this divergence cannot easily be absorbed in a low-growth, low-inflation environment, and this will certainly remain true out to our forecasting horizon.

  • US and european 10Y yields

    Yields are also very low and we fear that market liquidity may quickly evaporate in an unintended consequence of post-crisis regulation. By the end of 2015, the Fed will be well into its rate-hike cycle and we expect to see the 10Y Treasury at around 3.25%; and, with fears of European deflation mostly dispelled in a year's time, Bund yields will be pushing higher too.

    US and european 10Y yields
  • Associative topics : Economics | Europe | North America


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