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Edition 9 April 2019 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition 9 April 2019

    Italy – Economic environment: Macroeconomic and banking review

    Following a 0.1% downturn in Q3 2018 and Q4 2018, Italy is officially in a technical recession, a term signifying a decrease in GDP over two consecutive quarters. GDP growth in 2018 thus came out at 0.9%, down sharply on the 1.7% reported in 2017. Our central scenario is based on a recovery in activity, especially in industry, starting in Q2 2019, and on a renewed positive contribution from domestic demand. However, the growth overhang in 2019 from Q4 2018 is negative (-0.1%) and will limit GDP growth to an annual average of 0.1% in 2019.

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  • Contents:

    - Macroeconomy: between cycle and crises
    - Politics: shifting balances
    - The banking sector: a new priority for the Italian government?

  • Extract – Politics: shifting balances

    Following the results of local elections in Friuli and Trentino Alto Adige, the League is now winning the electoral battle in the south. The redistribution of power in the government in favour of the League will undoubtedly have consequences. While the two parties are currently expressing their determination to continue their alliance, finding a compromise on the measures of the government programme for which their voters have opposing positions will become increasingly complicated. A number of budget planning problems for 2020 and 2021, which rather than being resolved were swept under the carpet, will resurface in autumn 2019. Specifically, to meet the budgetary objectives negotiated with the European Commission, Italy will have to find €23 billion if it is to avoid an automatic increase in value-added tax.

  • Associative topics : Banking and Insurance | Economics | Italy


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