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Following a 0.1% downturn in Q3 2018 and Q4 2018, Italy is officially in a technical recession, a term signifying a decrease in GDP over two consecutive quarters. GDP growth in 2018 thus came out at 0.9%, down sharply on the 1.7% reported in 2017. Our central scenario is based on a recovery in activity, especially in industry, starting in Q2 2019, and on a renewed positive contribution from domestic demand. However, the growth overhang in 2019 from Q4 2018 is negative (-0.1%) and will limit GDP growth to an annual average of 0.1% in 2019.
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