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Russia is France's tenth-ranking trading partner for imports. Some 85% of imports are mineral fuels, mineral oils and distillates (coal, coke and briquettes, petroleum and derivatives, natural gas and manufactured gas, electrical energy).
China's consumer price index rose by 0.8% y/y, compared with 1.5% the previous month, - its lowest level since November 2009. In parallel, food and producer prices rose 1.1% and fell by 4.3% respectively. The increase in food prices should be compared with the 2.9% increase in December and producer prices with a drop of 3.3%. In both cases, at any rate, these figures are the lowest for at least five years. Elsewhere, exports fell by 3.3% y/y last month, whereas they had risen by 9.7% in December. And imports fell by 19.9%, after a drop of 2.4% in the previous month.
In February 2015, Metroscopia opinion poll showed that if elections were to be held today, Podemos would lead both the PP and the PSOE with 27.7% of votes versus 20.9% for the PP.
Mortgage lending rates are likely to stop falling and stabilise.Long-term rates could rise very gradually in 2015. Lending rates stop falling could lead to a slight fall-off in sales in the pre-owned sector and more marked price falls.
The lower primary surplus option is highly vulnerable to a negative growth shock with a strong risk for debt sustainability.In absence of shocks there is a chance for Greece. Otherwise, the 'extend and pretend' strategy makes sense only if it is buying time for a more constructive solution.
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