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    Edition August 23, 2016

    Spain: an ambitious fiscal adjustment still required in 2017-18

    Spain reduced its public deficit by 0.9ppt of GDP in 2015 (to 5.1%) versus a reduction of 1.8ppt of GDP required by the European Commission. The latter judged that no effective action has been taken due to a declining structural deficit since 2014. No fine was finally adopted, but Spain is still required to correct its structural balance 0.7 ppt of GDP by 2018.

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  • Edition August 5, 2016 UK: MPC's projections for GDP growth*

    The BoE expects growth to slow sharply in the coming months, from 2.0% in 2016 to 0.8% in 2017 on annual average (versus 2.3% expected previously). The relatively strong figure for 2016 (more than 0.5% above our forecast) is due to the upside surprise in Q2 (0.3ppt above the BoE's expectations) and the expectation of a near-term recession to be averted.

    UK: MPC's projections for GDP growth*

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  • Edition July 28, 2016 France : Unit labour costs (wages/VA by volume)

    In 2015, unit wage costs were stable in France after rising 1.2% in 2014. While wages increased by 1.4%, productivity gained 1.2% and payroll taxes dropped 0.3% as a result of the mechanisms in the Responsibility Pact.

    France : Unit labour costs (wages/VA by volume)

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  • Edition July 26, 2016 Egypt: Inflation and base rate

    Inflation reached an annualised 14.8% in June and 18.4% for food products alone. The Central Bank's inflation target (9.1% according to the IMF) has been substantially overshot. It has increased its key rate to 11.75%, the highest rate since the 2008 crisis. Elsewhere, pressure on the Pound shows no sign of letting up. The Egyptian currency is trading at 8.8 per USD at the official rate, but at 11 on the black market; the 20% differential is the highest for a year.

    Egypt: Inflation and base rate

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  • Edition July 22, 2016 France: Existing housing prices

    Prices for pre-owned homes stabilised in 2015 and rose slightly in early 2016 In Q1 2016, prices rose 0.5% over twelve months. They rose by 1.1% for houses, but apartments were down by a very slight 0.2%. They increased by 0.2% in Greater Paris, 0.7% outside Greater Paris, and by 1.2% in inner Paris.

    France: Existing housing prices

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  • Edition July 4, 2016 French inward FDI (average 2013-2014)

    In the wake of Brexit, French companies are less likely to want to invest in the UK. Similarly, UK firms will invest less in Europe and France. The net balance of UK investment is positive vis-à-vis France. In terms of incoming FDI for France, the UK was the second largest investor in 2013-2014, after Luxembourg, with close to 10 billion euros over the two years.

    French inward FDI (average 2013-2014)

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