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On the whole, African countries' terms of trade have benefited from the increase in the prices of hydrocarbons and ores over the past ten years.
In 2013, sales are forecast to stabilise in the new-build sector and to fall by around 6% in the pre-owned sector. Pre-owned prices are set to fall by 4% year-on-year, for a cumulative fall of 6% between end-2011 and end-2013.
With inflation reaching new lows, at 1.1% YoY in September and even below when one excludes volatile HICP components and taxes, there could be a strong case for a shift to the downside in the balance of risks to price stability.
In Europe, the GDP data for the second quarter came as a pleasant surprise, and the most recent economic indicators suggest that the pace of Eurozone activity is likely to remain in positive territory throughout the second half of the year.
The draft 2014 budget provides for a deficit of 3.6% of GDP, down 0.5 points relative to 2013. As in 2013, the reduction in the public deficit will be due entirely to the cut in the structural deficit.
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