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Polls conducted after May's speech on Brexit show that a majority of the public support the sort of Brexit she is seeking to achieve. The public preference for the Conservative party has been boosted to a 17-point lead relative to Labour (when undecided people are excluded).
Brazil's GDP shrank by 0.8% in Q3 relative to the previous quarter (q/q) and by 2.9% relative to Q3 2015 (y/y). This is the seventh consecutive quarterly fall in activity. The modest rebound in industry in Q2 (1.2%) was wiped out in Q3, with a drop of 1.3% q/q. Agriculture shed 1.4% q/q and services 0.6%. Similarly, the Q2 stabilisation in investment (+0.5% q/q) was short-lived: it fell 3.1% q/q in Q3.
Tunisia has been suffering from a severe imbalance in its balance of payments and a simultaneous slump in its GDP growth rate. Recent data on the trade balance are not good and exports shrank again by 3.5% y/y in Q3 2016. The trade deficit has been stable at an average USD 5.7 billion in the past four quarters due to shrinking exports. The current account deficit is likely to exceed 9% of GDP in 2016.
Rates rose slightly in late 2015, but fell back again in 2016, to 1.7% in August. We lean towards a scenario in which OAT rates and lending rates rise slightly in 2017.
The effect of external support factors, which was marked in 2015 and 2016, should be weaker in 2017. The recovery in the Eurozone and a fortiori in France, will, therefore, be based on a slightly larger cyclical component as the business environment gradually improves on the strength of a self-sustaining recovery driven by employment-incomes-consumption factors.
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