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    Edition July 21, 2015

    France: New mortgage lending

    New mortgage lending has fluctuated widely in recent years. a fall of 19% over 12 months. The rate picked up again in 2015, rising to record levels in March, April, and May, at €15 billion a month. The accumulate flow over 12 months rose by 2.7% in the year in May and should be up by at least 20% over the year as a whole.

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  • Edition July 15, 2015 China: Equities markets

    All the talk is about plummeting stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The former has fallen 24% since 12 June, when the retrenchment began, and the latter by around 32%. As a result, Beijing has implemented a raft of measures in the past ten days to stem the rout.

    China: Equities markets

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  • Edition July 1, 2015 Poland: Inflation & MM rate

    The contraction in consumer prices has continued since the start of 2015, and amounted to 0.9% in April. Low commodity prices, are the main reason for the deflation, which has averaged 1.1% since the start of the year. Poland moved into deflation in August 2014. The NBP left its key rate unchanged at 1.5% at this stage, reckoning that the real interest rate is hardly punitive, with growth as vigorous as ever.

    Poland: Inflation & MM rate

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  • Edition June 30, 2015 Contributions of household consumption to growth

    In most countries, consumption is the leading growth factor in our 2015-16 scenario. Its contribution to GDP growth is generally higher than its proportion of GDP. This is especially the case in the US, where consumption is forecast to provide 90% of the additional growth in 2015 and 2016 (and even over 100% in 2015). Even in recession-hit Brazil, the resilience of household consumption is cushioning the drop in activity.

    Contributions of household consumption to growth

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  • Edition June 26, 2015 EUR/SEK moving sideways

    The Bank has been particularly vocal about the potential impact of a strong and quick appreciation of the SEK on inflation expectations.

    EUR/SEK moving sideways

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  • Edition June 2, 2015 Andean countries: GDP growth

    Growth has slowed sharply – in Chile and Peru to 1.8% and 2.4% respectively in 2014, compared with 4.3% and 5.8% in 2013, and in Colombia, where it again came out at 4.6% in 2014, but is forecast to fall to 3.3% in 2015. The negative impact is mainly being passed on through the public finances. Oil revenues account for 27% of the total in Ecuador and 18% in Colombia.

    Andean countries: GDP growth

    Extract

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