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Industrial production rose by 6.1% in the 12 months to August. This was almost the same as the previous month's figure, when it rose 6%. Retail sales also improved slightly, rising 10.8%, compared with a rise of 10.5% in July. Investment, on the other hand, continued to decelerate, rising 10.9% in the year to August, or 0.3 of a percentage point less than in the previous month.
After a very encouraging trend at the beginning of the year, the QE synthetic indicator has halted since April and struggles to recover since then. The recent worries about a weaker inflation and an uncertain recover of the industrial production, constitute bad news for QE's success.
New mortgage lending has fluctuated widely in recent years. a fall of 19% over 12 months. The rate picked up again in 2015, rising to record levels in March, April, and May, at €15 billion a month. The accumulate flow over 12 months rose by 2.7% in the year in May and should be up by at least 20% over the year as a whole.
All the talk is about plummeting stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The former has fallen 24% since 12 June, when the retrenchment began, and the latter by around 32%. As a result, Beijing has implemented a raft of measures in the past ten days to stem the rout.
The contraction in consumer prices has continued since the start of 2015, and amounted to 0.9% in April. Low commodity prices, are the main reason for the deflation, which has averaged 1.1% since the start of the year. Poland moved into deflation in August 2014. The NBP left its key rate unchanged at 1.5% at this stage, reckoning that the real interest rate is hardly punitive, with growth as vigorous as ever.
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