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    Edition April 10, 2017

    UK: real household disposable income

    The resilience of household consumption in H216 occurred on the back of falling purchasing power. Real disposable income declined in both Q316 (-0.3% QoQ) and Q416 (-0.4% QoQ) due to inflationary pressures building up again while nominal gross disposable income was close to flat. Despite that decline in purchasing power, consumer confidence has resisted well in recent months.

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  • Edition March 29, 2017 Poland: Leaving deflation behind

    Prices in the Polish consumer basket stopped falling in November 2016. The inflation index was even up 2.2% yoy in February 2017 (1.8% in January). The rise is partly due to an increase in the price of winter vegetables, which suggests may be just a blip. Elsewhere, pressures in the labour market, with the gradual fall in the unemployment rate, have had a positive impact on wage levels.

    Poland: Leaving deflation behind

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  • Edition February 3, 2017 Employment: more dramatic adjustment in all sectors in Spain, notably in construction

    Facing a similar impact of the crisis on activity, Spain has responded with a more dramatic adjustment in employment and labour costs than Italy. Wage moderation was much more needed in Spain following a pre-crisis hike in wages. Stronger improvement in productivity, coupled with wage moderation, has resulted in a more marked increase in competitiveness in Spain. 

    Employment: more dramatic adjustment in all sectors in Spain, notably in construction

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  • Edition February 28, 2017 Egypt: inflation

    At end-January inflation hit 28.1% y/y, a 5-point increase on December's 23.3%. In addition, since October 2016, core inflation has risen faster than the consumer price index. The main cause of this inflation is the imported inflation due to the Egyptian Pound's depreciation, which has automatically increased the cost of imports of everyday consumer goods.

    Egypt: inflation

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  • Edition January 31, 2017 Latin America: 2017 minimum wages

    The average minimum monthly salary in Latin America (excluding Venezuela) is USD 320, which corresponds to USD 590 in purchasing power parity, and to 40% of average per capita GDP. The dispersion is fairly strong, but Mexico stands out, with a particularly low minimum wage: 80 MXN/day, or USD 110 a month and only 15% of per capita GDP.

    Latin America: 2017 minimum wages

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  • Edition 20 January, 2017 UK voting intentions: if there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

    Polls conducted after May's speech on Brexit show that a majority of the public support the sort of Brexit she is seeking to achieve. The public preference for the Conservative party has been boosted to a 17-point lead relative to Labour (when undecided people are excluded).

    UK voting intentions: if there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

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