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    Edition 6 December 2018

    China: domestic debt (exclu. general government) and growth

    The massive use of credit to finance Chinese economic growth, no matter how strong, has been accompanied by a substantial loss of efficiency in recent years. Loss of efficiency that resulted in the accumulation of production overcapacity in industry and other imbalances. And evidenced by the diverging trends of growth and of the total outstanding of loans to the economy, expressed as a percentage of GDP, since the end of 2000s.

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  • Edition 26 October 2018 Italy: Contribution to GDP Growth

    Growth in Q2 2018 was driven by domestic demand, notably investment.

    Italy: Contribution to GDP Growth

    Extract

  • Edition 24 October 2018 France: lead indicator for GDP growth

    Our leading indicator for GDP growth suggests that growth will rebound in Q3, forecasting 0.6% GDP growth quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

    France: lead indicator for GDP growth

    Extract

  • Edition 24 October 2018 Italy: Country and Sovereign rating

    The reaction of rating agencies has been rapid. Moody's has lowered the Italian country and sovereign rating to one notch above the speculative grade, stabilizing the outlook. The decision had already been anticipated by investors ou feared a new negative outlook, which would have initiated the path toward a new and more decisive downgrade.

    Italy: Country and Sovereign rating

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  • Edition August 6, 2018 UK: CPI inflation & MPC's projections*

    Inflation projections are 0.13ppt higher for the remainder part of this year and 0.20ppt higher for the first half of 2019. Hence, the BoE's inflation forecasts remain slightly above the 2% target through most of the forecast period (2.3% in Q418, 2.2% in Q419) and reach target only in the third year.

    UK: CPI inflation & MPC's projections*

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  • Edition August 1, 2018 Italy - Firms: toward the end of the crisis, strong recovery
    Firm's payment defaults, a good measure of firm's stability, are back to pre-crisis levels.
    Italy - Firms: toward the end of the crisis, strong recovery

    Extract

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