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In February 2015, Metroscopia opinion poll showed that if elections were to be held today, Podemos would lead both the PP and the PSOE with 27.7% of votes versus 20.9% for the PP.
Mortgage lending rates are likely to stop falling and stabilise.Long-term rates could rise very gradually in 2015. Lending rates stop falling could lead to a slight fall-off in sales in the pre-owned sector and more marked price falls.
The lower primary surplus option is highly vulnerable to a negative growth shock with a strong risk for debt sustainability.In absence of shocks there is a chance for Greece. Otherwise, the 'extend and pretend' strategy makes sense only if it is buying time for a more constructive solution.
The ILO unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in the three months to November compared with the previous (non-overlapping) three months, once again surprising favourably relative to consensus expectations. There is a non-negligible chance that the MPC's estimate of slack in the labour market will be revised to the downside (to below 1% of GDP, relative to "broadly in the region of 1% of GDP").
GDP growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in the Q4 2014, compared with 3.3% in the Q3, continuing a downtrend that began nine months earlier. Due to domestic demand – to the contrary, the contribution to growth of net external demand had increased. While public and private consumption only very slightly marked time, this was not the case with investment, which grew by a small 1.1%, whereas it had risen by 3.3% in the Q3.
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