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    Edition September 30, 2015

    ECB's inflation forecasts appear too optimistic

    The ECB's current forecasts of inflation appear too optimistic. The unemployment rate and core inflation track each other closely. However, there appears an inconsistency between the ECB's forecast of unemployment versus core inflation. If the ECB's forecast of unemployment is correct then it would be difficult to achieve its current forecast of 1.6% core inflation for 2017.

Economic graphics

Keep abreast of the latest economic graphics commented by Credit Agricole economists

  • Edition September 29, 2015 China: Economic activity

    Industrial production rose by 6.1% in the 12 months to August. This was almost the same as the previous month's figure, when it rose 6%. Retail sales also improved slightly, rising 10.8%, compared with a rise of 10.5% in July. Investment, on the other hand, continued to decelerate, rising 10.9% in the year to August, or 0.3 of a percentage point less than in the previous month.

    China: Economic activity


  • Edition September 8, 2015 The QE impact indicator compared to ECB's objectives

    After a very encouraging trend at the beginning of the year, the QE synthetic indicator has halted since April and struggles to recover since then. The recent worries about a weaker inflation and an uncertain recover of the industrial production, constitute bad news for QE's success.

    The QE impact indicator compared to ECB's objectives


  • Edition July 21, 2015 France: New mortgage lending

    New mortgage lending has fluctuated widely in recent years. a fall of 19% over 12 months. The rate picked up again in 2015, rising to record levels in March, April, and May, at €15 billion a month. The accumulate flow over 12 months rose by 2.7% in the year in May and should be up by at least 20% over the year as a whole.

    France: New mortgage lending


  • Edition July 15, 2015 China: Equities markets

    All the talk is about plummeting stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The former has fallen 24% since 12 June, when the retrenchment began, and the latter by around 32%. As a result, Beijing has implemented a raft of measures in the past ten days to stem the rout.

    China: Equities markets


  • Edition July 1, 2015 Poland: Inflation & MM rate

    The contraction in consumer prices has continued since the start of 2015, and amounted to 0.9% in April. Low commodity prices, are the main reason for the deflation, which has averaged 1.1% since the start of the year. Poland moved into deflation in August 2014. The NBP left its key rate unchanged at 1.5% at this stage, reckoning that the real interest rate is hardly punitive, with growth as vigorous as ever.

    Poland: Inflation & MM rate



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