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    Edition January 31, 2017

    Latin America: 2017 minimum wages

    The average minimum monthly salary in Latin America (excluding Venezuela) is USD 320, which corresponds to USD 590 in purchasing power parity, and to 40% of average per capita GDP. The dispersion is fairly strong, but Mexico stands out, with a particularly low minimum wage: 80 MXN/day, or USD 110 a month and only 15% of per capita GDP.

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Keep abreast of the latest economic graphics commented by Credit Agricole economists

  • Edition 20 January, 2017 UK voting intentions: if there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

    Polls conducted after May's speech on Brexit show that a majority of the public support the sort of Brexit she is seeking to achieve. The public preference for the Conservative party has been boosted to a 17-point lead relative to Labour (when undecided people are excluded).

    UK voting intentions: if there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?


  • Edition January 4, 2017 Brazil: activity indicators

    Brazil's GDP shrank by 0.8% in Q3 relative to the previous quarter (q/q) and by 2.9% relative to Q3 2015 (y/y). This is the seventh consecutive quarterly fall in activity. The modest rebound in industry in Q2 (1.2%) was wiped out in Q3, with a drop of 1.3% q/q. Agriculture shed 1.4% q/q and services 0.6%. Similarly, the Q2 stabilisation in investment (+0.5% q/q) was short-lived: it fell 3.1% q/q in Q3.

    Brazil: activity indicators


  • Edition November 8, 2016 Tunisia: GDP, current balance & exchange rate

    Tunisia has been suffering from a severe imbalance in its balance of payments and a simultaneous slump in its GDP growth rate. Recent data on the trade balance are not good and exports shrank again by 3.5% y/y in Q3 2016. The trade deficit has been stable at an average USD 5.7 billion in the past four quarters due to shrinking exports. The current account deficit is likely to exceed 9% of GDP in 2016.

    Tunisia: GDP, current balance & exchange rate


  • Edition October 28, 2016 France: Housing loan rates

    Rates rose slightly in late 2015, but fell back again in 2016, to 1.7% in August. We lean towards a scenario in which OAT rates and lending rates rise slightly in 2017.

    France: Housing loan rates


  • Edition October 25, 2016 France: Growth supportive factors

    The effect of external support factors, which was marked in 2015 and 2016, should be weaker in 2017. The recovery in the Eurozone and a fortiori in France, will, therefore, be based on a slightly larger cyclical component as the business environment gradually improves on the strength of a self-sustaining recovery driven by employment-incomes-consumption factors.

    France: Growth supportive factors



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