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    Edition November 8, 2016

    Tunisia: GDP, current balance & exchange rate

    Tunisia has been suffering from a severe imbalance in its balance of payments and a simultaneous slump in its GDP growth rate. Recent data on the trade balance are not good and exports shrank again by 3.5% y/y in Q3 2016. The trade deficit has been stable at an average USD 5.7 billion in the past four quarters due to shrinking exports. The current account deficit is likely to exceed 9% of GDP in 2016.

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  • Edition October 28, 2016 France: Housing loan rates

    Rates rose slightly in late 2015, but fell back again in 2016, to 1.7% in August. We lean towards a scenario in which OAT rates and lending rates rise slightly in 2017.

    France: Housing loan rates

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  • Edition October 25, 2016 France: Growth supportive factors

    The effect of external support factors, which was marked in 2015 and 2016, should be weaker in 2017. The recovery in the Eurozone and a fortiori in France, will, therefore, be based on a slightly larger cyclical component as the business environment gradually improves on the strength of a self-sustaining recovery driven by employment-incomes-consumption factors.

    France: Growth supportive factors

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  • Edition October 12, 2016 Mexico: prices and interest & exchange rates

    The Bank of Mexico is keeping its real key rate at 1.8% (nominal 4.75%), given that inflation is at 3.0%. Growth is sluggish (shrinking 0.2% q/q in Q2). The peso hits a record low of 19.85 MXN/USD on 26 September.

    Mexico: prices and interest & exchange rates

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  • Edition October 3, 2016 EMU: contribution to GDP growth

    GDP rose by 0.3% in Q216. True, this was a slowdown relative to Q1's 0.5% growth, although that was driven exceptionally by weather factors and adjustments after a gloomy 2015 year-end. Domestic demand has not fuelled growth as much as before, with a contribution that was only just positive, at 0.1 of a percentage point.

    EMU: contribution to GDP growth

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  • Edition August 23, 2016 Spain: an ambitious fiscal adjustment still required in 2017-18

    Spain reduced its public deficit by 0.9ppt of GDP in 2015 (to 5.1%) versus a reduction of 1.8ppt of GDP required by the European Commission. The latter judged that no effective action has been taken due to a declining structural deficit since 2014. No fine was finally adopted, but Spain is still required to correct its structural balance 0.7 ppt of GDP by 2018.

    Spain: an ambitious fiscal adjustment still required in 2017-18

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