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All the talk is about plummeting stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The former has fallen 24% since 12 June, when the retrenchment began, and the latter by around 32%. As a result, Beijing has implemented a raft of measures in the past ten days to stem the rout.
The contraction in consumer prices has continued since the start of 2015, and amounted to 0.9% in April. Low commodity prices, are the main reason for the deflation, which has averaged 1.1% since the start of the year. Poland moved into deflation in August 2014. The NBP left its key rate unchanged at 1.5% at this stage, reckoning that the real interest rate is hardly punitive, with growth as vigorous as ever.
In most countries, consumption is the leading growth factor in our 2015-16 scenario. Its contribution to GDP growth is generally higher than its proportion of GDP. This is especially the case in the US, where consumption is forecast to provide 90% of the additional growth in 2015 and 2016 (and even over 100% in 2015). Even in recession-hit Brazil, the resilience of household consumption is cushioning the drop in activity.
The Bank has been particularly vocal about the potential impact of a strong and quick appreciation of the SEK on inflation expectations.
Growth has slowed sharply – in Chile and Peru to 1.8% and 2.4% respectively in 2014, compared with 4.3% and 5.8% in 2013, and in Colombia, where it again came out at 4.6% in 2014, but is forecast to fall to 3.3% in 2015. The negative impact is mainly being passed on through the public finances. Oil revenues account for 27% of the total in Ecuador and 18% in Colombia.
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