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    Edition August 6, 2018

    UK: CPI inflation & MPC's projections*

    Inflation projections are 0.13ppt higher for the remainder part of this year and 0.20ppt higher for the first half of 2019. Hence, the BoE's inflation forecasts remain slightly above the 2% target through most of the forecast period (2.3% in Q418, 2.2% in Q419) and reach target only in the third year.

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  • Edition August 1, 2018 Italy - Firms: toward the end of the crisis, strong recovery
    Firm's payment defaults, a good measure of firm's stability, are back to pre-crisis levels.
    Italy - Firms: toward the end of the crisis, strong recovery

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  • Edition 25 July 2018 Lead GDP growth indicator

    Q1 GDP marked a slowdown in growth. This slowdown is not a sign of a downturn in the French economy. The June business surveys suggest a slight improvement in H2. Our lead indicator points to 0.3% GDP growth q-o-q in Q2.

    Lead GDP growth indicator

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  • Edition July 24, 2018 Germany: Can the unemployment rate fall further?

    The number of unemployed has continued to drop since 2009, and is now at a historical low with 1.5 million people concerned (3.4% of the working population). In the years to come, the declining trend of the working-age population will be the main factor leading to lower unemployment, according to our estimates. 

    Germany: Can the unemployment rate fall further?

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  • Edition 9 July 2018 Italy: League advance confirmed in local elections

    A left-to-right shift in the recent partial local elections. In the current landscape, the centre-right governs 43 of the 112 large cities (compared with 29 after the 2013 local elections), while the centre-left governs 46, as against 76 in 2013. The M5S still has a very small presence at local level, running six large cities, as against two in 2013.

    Italy: League advance confirmed in local elections

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  • Edition July 2, 2018 France: Relative margin squeeze

    Margin squeeze is defined as the ratio of price competitiveness to cost competitiveness. A ratio above 100 implies faster growth in prices than in ULCs relative to the base year. Conversely, if the ratio is below 100, this means that ULCs have risen more quickly, and that exporters then had to squeeze their margins.

    France: Relative margin squeeze

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