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    Edition May 3, 2016

    Argentina: the cost of risk is falling

    The success of Argentina's bond issue tells us two things First, that there is abundant available liquidity in the markets on the lookout for higher yields. Despite the downbeat prognostications about the growth outlook (most recently from the IMF) and even alarmist sentiment about emerging countries (a "Brazil effect"), risk aversion is undoubtedly declining.

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  • Edition April, 2016 France: Existing housing sales and prices

    The market would be slightly less dynamic in 2016. Transaction volumes would remain high, although slightly down, by 5%, in the pre-owned segment. This is because housing demand from first-time buyers could dip, linked to the slight increase of interest rates. Pre-owned home prices could be slightly up, by 1-2%, in 2016.

    France: Existing housing sales and prices

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  • Edition April 20, 2014 France: Public debt

    The public debt ratio, at 95.3% of GDP in 2014, rose slightly in 2015 to 95.7%. It is forecast to see further small increases in 2016, to 96.2%, and in 2017, to 96.5%. These ratios are calculated inclusive of financial support for Eurozone states. This modest increase in the public debt ratio can be explained by moves to cut deficits and the recovery in nominal GDP growth.

    France: Public debt

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  • Edition 15 April 2016 France: Corporate investment delay

    Business investment has been increasing for nine quarters. After rising by 1.9% in 2015, it is forecast to accelerate by a modest 2.9% in 2016 and by 3.3% in 2017. The increase is modest if we compare it to past business cycles where the recovery was more vigorous and not so late in arriving. In terms of its level, business investment has only just returned to its 2008 level.

    France: Corporate investment delay

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  • Edition 8 April 2016 Saudi Arabia: Trade and current-account balances

    The Saudi economy is high vulnerable to oil prices. The fall in oil prices caused a deterioration as of mid-2014 in the upper part of the balance of payments. The trade balance has posted a deficit since Q1 2015. Following large surpluses in recent years, the current-account balance showed a deficit in 2015 due to an average oil price of USD 53 per barrel.

    Saudi Arabia: Trade and current-account balances

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  • Edition 5 April 2016 Annual growth in eligible loans

    A -0.40% interest rate on TLTROs would apply providing that bank lending to non-financial customers (excluding mortgages) exceeds a target, specific to each country, by 2.5% by January 2018. This would correspond to a compound annual growth rate in eligible lending of close to 1% in the euro area, which seems not difficult to reach.

    Annual growth in eligible loans

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