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Edition July 24, 2018 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition July 24, 2018

    Germany – 2018-2019 Scenario: Q2 2018 Outlook

    Following a first quarter characterized by a marked slowdown in activity, German growth is expected to accelerate slightly in the second quarter. Domestic demand will remain the main driver of growth thanks to sustained private consumption and still positive investment momentum. External demand is faded by the rise of US protectionist barriers that are likely to hit more severely German exporters.

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  • Content:

    - Overview
    - Focus: Factors of production
    - Latest economic trends
    - Backbone of our scenario

  • Extract:

    Germany has a high and recently renewed capital stock, thanks to investment, which has increased significantly over the past five years.

    Capital depreciation is now less rapid and suggests lower investment needs in upcoming years: outlook of a gradual slowdown in productive investment, despite some room for manoeuvre in the short and medium terms.

    The unemployment rate has been falling for almost three years now. The pace of growth of salaried employment is slowing and the massive decline in the working-age population (linked to the ageing of the population) is becoming the main factor explaining the continual drop in the unemployment rate.

    The German economy has the necessary capital and labour resources in the short term to efficiently meet demand for industrial goods, without them curbing its development. Nevertheless, the decline in the working-age population represents a forthcoming challenge that will have to be met in order to guarantee an equivalent level of production without any major gain in productivity expected.

  • Germany: Can the unemployment rate fall further?

    The number of unemployed has continued to drop since 2009, and is now at a historical low with 1.5 million people concerned (3.4% of the working population). In the years to come, the declining trend of the working-age population will be the main factor leading to lower unemployment, according to our estimates. 

    Germany: Can the unemployment rate fall further?
  • Associative topics : Economics | Europe


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